Could John McCain have won in 2008 if the DNC in Denver was brokered?

[UWS]

If neither Barack Obama nor Hillary Clinton had secured enough delegates to clinch the Democratic nomination in 2008, the Democratic National Convention in Denver would have been brokered and play in favor of John McCain. Would McCain have won the 2008 general election in such a scenario?

[President Johnson]

No way.

[LLR]

Recession, recession, how easily people forget. McCain was still leading for some time after the DNC...

[Oldiesfreak1854]

No.  A number of polls after the convention showed Hillary would have beaten McCain by a wider margin than Obama.  McCain was simply in a bad position, with Bush's low job approval, the recession, and the Iraq War.  He probably would have won in any year before 2008, but for all intents and purposes, that election was the beginning of the end of his political career.  Ann Kirkpatrick will be the final nail in his coffin this November.

Recession, recession, how easily people forget. McCain was still leading for some time after the DNC...

Actually, he led after the RNC, not the DNC.

[LLR]

Recession, recession, how easily people forget. McCain was still leading for some time after the DNC...

Actually, he led after the RNC, not the DNC.

DNC: 8/25-8/28

McCain led by 10 in a gallup poll from 9/7 and for the week of 9/1-9/7 led in most polls.

As late as 9/25 he was leading in a poll
That might not matter, but considering how much of a blowout the final margin was...

[/]

Clinton runs as Indy; final EC vote is 180-178-180

[pbrower2a]

The economy was entering an apparent freefall and the military situations in Afghanistan and Iraq were getting worse. The election would have been closer, but not close enough to allow McCain to win either Iowa or New Hampshire.

Pick off the states that went by less than 9% for Obama, and one still ends up with 269 electoral votes -- in order, North Carolina,  NE-02, Indiana, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado. Obama wins because the House delegations of the time vote for him.

Besides, Obama was a good campaign strategist, and Hillary Clinton had the usual Democratic interest groups well on her side.

[President Johnson]

Clinton runs as Indy; final EC vote is 180-178-180

Hillary would never have done that.

[Sumner 1868]

Clinton runs as Indy; final EC vote is 180-178-180

Louisiana and Tennessee were already firmly Republican by this point-they wouldn't have supported Clinton even in a two-way race if you look at polling done that year. Also, McCain's views on ethanol makes it unlikely he wins Iowa even with a split.

[sg0508]

No.  The day Lehman Brothers went under is the day the 2008 race was over.  That race was neck and neck until Lehman collapsed.  Then, Obama took a decisive lead, pulled away and never looked back.

The RNC didn't kill Mac either.  Lehman was the official turning point and the end of the 2008 race.

[Kingpoleon]

He could have. If he named someone like Lieberman, Giuliani, or Crist to the ticket right after the DNC, I think he could negate a convention bounce and led by fifteen a week after the Convention. IOTL, he was leading by five then. The recession would make it pure tossup, with either an Obama/Clark(the latter of whom was a top Clinton supporter) or a Clinton/Durbin or Clinton/Kaine ticket if somehow Clinton won.

I think either an Obama/Clark or an Obama/Bayh ticket could unite the Clintonites for a one to four point win, but a ticket like Obama/McCaskill or Obama/Kaine would divide the party for a narrow McCain win. Obama/Biden or something like it could be won by up to a point by either party.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

He could have. If he named someone like Lieberman, Giuliani, or Crist to the ticket right after the DNC, I think he could negate a convention bounce and led by fifteen a week after the Convention. IOTL, he was leading by five then. The recession would make it pure tossup, with either an Obama/Clark(the latter of whom was a top Clinton supporter) or a Clinton/Durbin or Clinton/Kaine ticket if somehow Clinton won.

There is no way on earth he could have named Lieberman or Giuliani. The GOP would never accept a pro-choice candidate on the national ticket. Buchanan threatened to run a third party candidacy in 1996 if Dole had picked such candidate.

[Nym90]

Only if the split had been very acrimonious and Clinton had refused to endorse Obama, then yes, it's possible. Or perhaps more likely, if Clinton had somehow emerged as the nominee from a brokered convention and Obama and his supporters felt cheated and thus a large portion of the Dem base (think African-Americans in particular) sits out the general election.

The odds are good that the rift would have healed before November, though.

[Redban]

Absolutely not.

With Bush's approval ratings, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the massive economic collapse, the 2008 election was an impossible win for any Republican candidate.

[Santander]

He could have. If he named someone like Lieberman, Giuliani, or Crist to the ticket right after the DNC, I think he could negate a convention bounce and led by fifteen a week after the Convention. IOTL, he was leading by five then. The recession would make it pure tossup, with either an Obama/Clark(the latter of whom was a top Clinton supporter) or a Clinton/Durbin or Clinton/Kaine ticket if somehow Clinton won.

There is no way on earth he could have named Lieberman or Giuliani. The GOP would never accept a pro-choice candidate on the national ticket. Buchanan threatened to run a third party candidacy in 1996 if Dole had picked such candidate.

Many people close to McCain believe that he wanted to run with Lieberman and could get him through the convention, but the political cost of doing so prevented him from doing it. Buchanan didn't have even close to the same amount of influence in the 2008 GOP that he did in the 1996 GOP.