CA-NBC/WSJ: Clinton +2

[ElectionsGuy]

I actually think California is the state provides us the best outlook to how Hispanics really feel about the two candidates. Everywhere else Hispanics were relevant:

Nevada and Colorado - Caucuses
Illinois - Everyone hates Rahm
New York - Closed primary, registration deadline so early that it actually should be illegal
Florida and New Mexico - Closed primaries
Texas - Sanders didn't compete
Arizona - Who knows who really benefited from the long lines?

California doesn't seem to have any major knocks against it. Independents are allowed to vote, the registration deadline is lenient, republicans can't screw with the result because they aren't allowed to vote, no same-day registration (which would be very favorable to Sanders), the governor is a Democrat, both candidates are competing, no mayor to rally against, and it's not a caucus.

I just read something horrible.

Apparently it can take days and even weeks to count all the absentee/early votes in California, if the race is very close we might not know the winner for awhile.

Yeah, that's true for the general, where turnout tends to be pretty high despite the state being Safe D. Not sure how well it pertains to the primary. Of course, this is a largely mail-in state, and they're still counting votes in WA.......

Or we could stop thinking about Hispanics as a monolithic group and accept that differences exist between states and areas.


Looks like Hillary is in trouble. Can't wait for next Tuesday.

[ElectionsGuy]

I actually think California is the state provides us the best outlook to how Hispanics really feel about the two candidates. Everywhere else Hispanics were relevant:

Nevada and Colorado - Caucuses
Illinois - Everyone hates Rahm
New York - Closed primary, registration deadline so early that it actually should be illegal
Florida and New Mexico - Closed primaries
Texas - Sanders didn't compete
Arizona - Who knows who really benefited from the long lines?

California doesn't seem to have any major knocks against it. Independents are allowed to vote, the registration deadline is lenient, republicans can't screw with the result because they aren't allowed to vote, no same-day registration (which would be very favorable to Sanders), the governor is a Democrat, both candidates are competing, no mayor to rally against, and it's not a caucus.

I just read something horrible.

Apparently it can take days and even weeks to count all the absentee/early votes in California, if the race is very close we might not know the winner for awhile.

Yeah, that's true for the general, where turnout tends to be pretty high despite the state being Safe D. Not sure how well it pertains to the primary. Of course, this is a largely mail-in state, and they're still counting votes in WA.......

Or we could stop thinking about Hispanics as a monolithic group and accept that differences exist between states and areas.


Looks like Hillary is in trouble. Can't wait for next Tuesday.

I mean, shes not. She's securing the nomination on Tuesday though so you have that to look forward to.

She has a chance of losing the largest and most diverse Democratic electorate to a democratic socialist from a tiny, very white state. That would be an embarrassing way to end the primary season and her polling bounce could be in jeopardy if Sanders touts it as a victory for his campaign and doesn't suspend. We know she's going to secure the nomination, what we don't know is how much she benefits from that if she loses the largest state in the country (I still think she'll win, but hypothetically).