GA-PPP: Trump comfortably ahead

[henster]

Interesting to note that the head to head polling of 49-40 drops to 47-42 if Trump picks Gingrich as VP.

Also, Sanders is doing worse then Clinton here.

Trump does a point worse against Sanders 48-40 when Johnson/Stein are not mentioned.

[Maxwell]

I was hoping for abnormal, but this looks pretty normal.

Why would you expect anything abnormal in Georgia? They hate Hillary there.

I was hoping, not expecting.

When thing to note is 18-29 has 20% unsure - a number that likely has a lot of Sanders supporters in it and will become more decided once the Sanders drops out.

[Dr. Arch]

Oh well, there go Georgia's chances to be a FF state.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Where are all the Berniebots?

Trump - 46
Sanders - 36
Johnson - 5
Stein - 1

Sad!

This other poll had Bernie doing a fair amount better than Hillary despite GA being one of his worse primary states.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=236733.0

PPP has been rather biased against Bernie, though.

[MK]

People that dont live here (especially the metro area) have know clue how strong the republican party is here.

[ElectionsGuy]

As expected, Georgia whites overwhelmingly will support Trump.

[Xing]

Sorry, Trumpettes, but this isn't a great poll for Little Donny. Yeah, he's in good shape in GA, but if he's not outperforming Romney, that doesn't bode well for him in the more competitive southern states. I expect him to win GA, but that helps him as much as winning MN helps Clinton.

[MT Treasurer]

Sorry, Trumpettes, but this isn't a great poll for Little Donny. Yeah, he's in good shape in GA, but if he's not outperforming Romney, that doesn't bode well for him in the more competitive southern states. I expect him to win GA, but that helps him as much as winning MN helps Clinton.

No. GA is maxed out for Republicans and it's hella inelastic. There is no way any Republican would do significantly better than Romney here, even if they won the election. GA-SEN 2014 is the best example.

[Xing]

Sorry, Trumpettes, but this isn't a great poll for Little Donny. Yeah, he's in good shape in GA, but if he's not outperforming Romney, that doesn't bode well for him in the more competitive southern states. I expect him to win GA, but that helps him as much as winning MN helps Clinton.

No. GA is maxed out for Republicans and it's hella inelastic. There is no way any Republican would do significantly better than Romney here, even if they won the election. GA-SEN 2014 is the best example.

You think Isakson will only win by eight?

[MT Treasurer]

You think Isakson will only win by eight?

He'll win by more, but Senate races /=/ presidential races. I mean, Ron Wyden and Patty Murray will significantly outperform Clinton, yet that doesn't mean that OR and WA aren't inelastic states at the presidential level. Isakson probably gets support from a few remaining White Democrats and Independents in the Atlanta area and will do better than Trump with minorities (especially Hispanics and Asians).

[Xing]

You think Isakson will only win by eight?

He'll win by more, but Senate races /=/ presidential races. I mean, Ron Wyden and Patty Murray will significantly outperform Clinton, yet that doesn't mean that OR and WA aren't inelastic states at the presidential level. Isakson probably gets support from a few remaining White Democrats and Independents in the Atlanta area and will do better than Trump with minorities (especially Hispanics and Asians).

Then why is the senate race from 2014 the best example? I'm not saying Trump should be winning GA by 20, but he should hope to be on the other side of Romney's win margin (maybe 10 or so points ahead) rather than under it.

[EliteLX]

B-b-but muh Trend D GA! Muh VA 2008 redux!!1!

In all seriousness, though, I'm quite surprised by those results. Clinton is getting absolutely destroyed among White voters. Looks like NC, GA, IN, MO and AZ are all not in play. So much for expanding the map.

God Bless.

FL, OH, and PA; here Don comes. Going to be a hell of a summer & fall.

[Ronnie]

B-b-but muh Trend D GA! Muh VA 2008 redux!!1!

In all seriousness, though, I'm quite surprised by those results. Clinton is getting absolutely destroyed among White voters. Looks like NC, GA, IN, MO and AZ are all not in play. So much for expanding the map.

God Bless.

FL, OH, and PA; here Don comes. Going to be a hell of a summer & fall.

Emphasis on hell.  For him, that is.

[Ljube]

B-b-but muh Trend D GA! Muh VA 2008 redux!!1!

In all seriousness, though, I'm quite surprised by those results. Clinton is getting absolutely destroyed among White voters. Looks like NC, GA, IN, MO and AZ are all not in play. So much for expanding the map.

God Bless.

FL, OH, and PA; here Don comes. Going to be a hell of a summer & fall.

And MI too!

[Wells]

Hillary Clinton/Elizabeth Warren  332 EV's  53.8%
Donald Trump/Newt Gingrich     206 EV's  45.3%

[Know Nothing]

This seems consistent with a Clinton lead of 2-3 points nationally (Not that these polls really mean anything until after the primaries are over).

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

i'd hardly describe 7 points in georgia of all places as a "comfortable" lead, but whatever

[StatesPoll]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/06/trump-has-solid-lead-over-clinton-in-georgia.html

Trump: 45%
Clinton: 38%
Johnson: 6%
Stein: 2%

I guess Hillary Hooligans might say 'stop' But there is nothing wrong with This analysis
Just accept the reality, Hooligans.

1. Calculation (convert PPP poll results as Reaistic demographics.)
GA(2012) Racial Voters Share: White 65% | Black 28% | Other 7%


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_GA_60116.pdf
(Page 21 of pdf file)
White: TRUMP 67% | Hillary 17% | Johnson 6% | Stein 1%
Black: Hillary 80% | Stein 5% | Johnson 4% | Trump 2%
Other: Hillary 38% | TRUMP 35% | Johnson 19% | Stein 0%

TRUMP 46.6% | Hillary 36.1% | Johnson 6.4% | Stein 2.1%


about the details
1) TRUMP

a. White 65%(Voters share) x 67% = 43.55%

b. Black 28%(Voters share) x 2% = 0.56%

c. Other 7%(Voters share) X 35% =  2.45%

= Total 46.56%


2) Hillary

a. White 65%(voters shares) x 17% = 11.05%

b. Black 28%(voters shares) x 80% =  22.4%

c. Other 7%(Voters share) X 38% =  2.66%

= Total 36.11%


3) Gary Johnson

a. White 65%(voters shares) x 6% = 3.9%

b. Black 28%(voters shares) x 4% =  1.12%

c. Other 7%(Voters share) X 19% =  1.33%

= Total 6.35%


4) Jill Stein

a. White 65%(voters shares) x 1% = 0.65%

b. Black 28%(voters shares) x 5% =  1.4%

c. Other 7%(Voters share) X 0% =  0%

= Total 2.05%

[Adam Griffin]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/06/trump-has-solid-lead-over-clinton-in-georgia.html

Trump: 45%
Clinton: 38%
Johnson: 6%
Stein: 2%

I guess Hillary Hooligans might say 'stop' But there is nothing wrong with This analysis
Just accept the reality, Hooligans.

1. Calculation (convert PPP poll results as Reaistic demographics.)
GA(2012) Racial Voters Share: White 65% | Black 28% | Other 7%

Uhhh...gonna have to stop ya right there: GA was 64% white, 30% black in the 2008 election and 61% white, 30% black in the 2012 election. Georgia is one of the few states that records both voter registration and turnout statistics by race, so we have the exact numbers rather than exit polling. Even in 2014, it was less white than what you're projecting. It's not going to be whiter in 2016 than it was in 2014 (or 2008...or 2012...).

2008: 64.1% White, 30.1% Black
2010: 66.3% White, 28.3% Black
2012: 61.4% White, 29.9% Black
2014: 63.5% White, 28.7% Black