NJ-Monmouth: Clinton in trouble

[Angrie]

Wait, so New Jersey State could be The Swing State?

More seriously, this has a very high number of undecideds. I think that is a reflection of the fact that many voters are not satisfied with either of the two candidates.

They also have a matchup with Johnson and Stein:

Clinton 37%
Trump 31%
Johnson 5%
Stein 4%
Other 6%
Undecided 14%

[Angrie]

Now I'm so curious about HH(Hillary Hooligan)'s Reaction.

Trump is not going to win New Jersey unless he wins a national landslide. All this means is that the poll didn't push reluctant dissatisfied voters to make a decision. In the end, enough educated middle class suburbanites will, somewhat reluctantly, pull the lever for Hillary.

[Angrie]

I'm not saying He gonna win NJ easily.
But it seems, Previous Oregon Poll(clout) wasn't an outlier.

Clout Poll(Oregon), Independent: TRUMP 53 - Hillary 26
MonMouth Poll(New Jersey), Independent: TRUMP 44 - Hillary 29

This is true, the polling over the last week or two has been pretty pathetic for Hillary. It is really a disgrace. However, it also reflects the fact that Trump has gotten his party unification bounce and Hillary has not yet done so. When Bernie eventually drops out and endorses Hillary, the numbers will return to about the same levels as before Cruz dropped out (a 5-10 point Clinton national lead).

[Angrie]

Now I really wonder, how is it going in Connecticut.
Because TRUMP has a better chance of winning in CT than NJ
(if NJ is 38-34, CT could be a dead heat situation now)

CT is less white than NJ, but the whites in CT are more Democratic than the whites in NJ.

Besides, Romney was a better fit for CT than Trump is, and he didn't come particularly close.

[Angrie]

Differences:

- Hurricane Sandy helped Obama in the Northeast (which includes Connecticut)

True, though that was more of a factor in NJ and NYC. CT wasn't directly hit so much (being protected by Long Island).

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Granted. Though by the same token, you can say that Romney 2012 is not comparable to Trump 2016 (lesser favorability).

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Except for the Mormonism, Romney is the literal stereotypical embodiment of Fairfield County. Trump, on the other hand, is not a respectable well-heeled suburbanite. I have a hard time thinking of many places where "NeverTrump" might be stronger than there. It's one of the few places where people like Bill Kristol can swing a few percentage points. Romney was also the governor of MA, a similar neighboring New England state.

The states where Trump is a better fit than Romney are the states in which his trade message will go over particularly well with working class whites, and where working class whites are a large share of the electorate. There are working class whites in CT, and Trump should do relatively well with them for a Republican, but they are only about 25% of the electorate, which is one of the lower shares in the country.

[Angrie]

Trump/Fallin 201 EV 47.8%
Clinton/Hickenlooper 331 EV 42.7%
Johnson/Weld 0 EV 8.2%

Popular vote numbers mixed up?