Differences:
- Hurricane Sandy helped Obama in the Northeast (which includes Connecticut)
True, though that was more of a factor in NJ and NYC. CT wasn't directly hit so much (being protected by Long Island).
Granted. Though by the same token, you can say that Romney 2012 is not comparable to Trump 2016 (lesser favorability).
Except for the Mormonism, Romney is the literal stereotypical embodiment of Fairfield County. Trump, on the other hand, is not a respectable well-heeled suburbanite. I have a hard time thinking of many places where "NeverTrump" might be stronger than there. It's one of the few places where people like Bill Kristol can swing a few percentage points. Romney was also the governor of MA, a similar neighboring New England state.
The states where Trump is a better fit than Romney are the states in which his trade message will go over particularly well with working class whites, and where working class whites are a large share of the electorate. There are working class whites in CT, and Trump should do relatively well with them for a Republican, but they are
only about 25% of the electorate, which is one of the lower shares in the country.