NJ-Monmouth: Clinton in trouble

[Fusionmunster]

Multiple polls had New Jersey a single digit race in 2012. It ended up not being so close.

Best way to compare is the RCP average in 2012 and 2016

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nj/new_jersey_romney_vs_obama-1912.html#polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nj/new_jersey_trump_vs_clinton-5872.html

Back in 2012 the End of May gap between Obama and Romney was 12.3.  Now it is 9 in 2016.  It is sort of plausible. Trump has done a lot of business in NJ and could have some residual net positive as part of that. 

There were only two polls in may though, one which was a super-outlier.

[Fusionmunster]

NJ will not be close, the undecideds will heavily break for Clinton when all is said and done. I wish pollsters would start pushing undecideds more. Clinton wins by at least 15 points, I will bump this thread in November expecting accolades.

Edit: So maybe 15 might be a bit much but I'm comfortable saying double digits.

[President Johnson]

LOL! Obama won the state with alomost twenty points, Hillary is in big trouble. She's a very weak candidate and will lose to TRUMP. With or without New Jersey.

[jaichind]

LOL! Obama won the state with alomost twenty points, Hillary is in big trouble. She's a very weak candidate and will lose to TRUMP. With or without New Jersey.

It is not that negative for Clinton. Understand that Sandy pushed NJ significantly toward Obama than before the storm.

[Xing]

Are people seriously bringing up 2004 results as if they're more relevant than anything that's happened since. No wonder people actually think Oregon is competitive. Remind me again how Virginia is Likely R and New Mexico is a Toss-up.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Seems legit.

(Don't add it.)

Uh, why not? Someone entered a SUSA poll out of KY that showed a tied race to the database. So why shouldn't we enter this one too?

From when?

[StatesPoll]

LOL! Obama won the state with alomost twenty points, Hillary is in big trouble. She's a very weak candidate and will lose to TRUMP. With or without New Jersey.

It is not that negative for Clinton. Understand that Sandy pushed NJ significantly toward Obama than before the storm.

of course Sandy helped Obama of Nationwide.
But in NJ. There wasn't that much difference, before sandy / after sandy(final results)

New Jersey: Romney vs. Obama (2012)

RCP Average (10/10-10/25, which was before Sandy) Obama 52.3% | Romney 40.5%
Final Results Obama 58.3% | Romney 40.6%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nj/new_jersey_romney_vs_obama-1912.html#polls

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

When you're so corrupt that you're barely winning New Jersey....

[Eraserhead]

Monmouth has been pretty damn good this year during the primaries. This one has to be giving Clintonworld agita.

That said, New Jersey usually ends up being Fool's Gold for Republicans.

[Fusionmunster]

Monmouth has been pretty damn good this year during the primaries. This one has to be giving Clintonworld agita.

That said, New Jersey usually ends up being Fool's Gold for Republicans.

You have to admit, its pretty junky that both candidates are under 40.

[RINO Tom]

Now I really wonder, how is it going in Connecticut.
Because TRUMP has a better chance of winning in CT than NJ
(if NJ is 38-34, CT could be a dead heat situation now)

CT is less white than NJ, but the whites in CT are more Democratic than the whites in NJ.

Besides, Romney was a better fit for CT than Trump is, and he didn't come particularly close.

Not discounting how much more liberal CT (and all of New England) is than it used to be, but even though Romney was a good fit for the region, so was Obama.  I think Romney vs. someone like Martin O'Malley makes it much closer.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Now I really wonder, how is it going in Connecticut.
Because TRUMP has a better chance of winning in CT than NJ
(if NJ is 38-34, CT could be a dead heat situation now)

CT is less white than NJ, but the whites in CT are more Democratic than the whites in NJ.

Besides, Romney was a better fit for CT than Trump is, and he didn't come particularly close.

Not discounting how much more liberal CT (and all of New England) is than it used to be, but even though Romney was a good fit for the region, so was Obama.  I think Romney vs. someone like Martin O'Malley makes it much closer.

Romney was a terrible fit for the region! (And to make it close, you'd have to have the Dems run some 2nd tier Midwestern woman or something.)

[Ronnie]

Did they forget to push for leaners or something?

[Eraserhead]

Monmouth has been pretty damn good this year during the primaries. This one has to be giving Clintonworld agita.

That said, New Jersey usually ends up being Fool's Gold for Republicans.

You have to admit, its pretty junky that both candidates are under 40.

That is strange.

[Sir Mohamed]

If Drumpf wins NJ I eat a broom.

[Young Conservative]

Now I really wonder, how is it going in Connecticut.
Because TRUMP has a better chance of winning in CT than NJ
(if NJ is 38-34, CT could be a dead heat situation now)

CT is less white than NJ, but the whites in CT are more Democratic than the whites in NJ.

Besides, Romney was a better fit for CT than Trump is, and he didn't come particularly close.

Ct is far whiter than NJ at 71% Compared to about 59% for NJ (in terms of nonhispanic white)

[Gabagool102]

NJ is a tossup state. It will go for clinton, but it will be a tossup state like in '04

[psychprofessor]

NJ is a tossup state. It will go for clinton, but it will be a tossup state like in '04

It wasn't a tossup state in '04 and it will not be a tossup state in '16. Too many blacks and browns in Essex, Camden, Passaic and Hudson counties for Trump to win over.

[DavidB.]

NJ is a tossup state. It will go for clinton, but it will be a tossup state like in '04

lol

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

NJ is a tossup state. It will go for clinton, but it will be a tossup state like in '04

It wasn't a tossup state in '04 and it will not be a tossup state in '16. Too many blacks and browns in Essex, Camden, Passaic and Hudson counties for Trump to win over.

It's okay, he has a great relationship with the blacks.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

NJ is a tossup state. It will go for clinton, but it will be a tossup state like in '04

It wasn't a tossup state in '04 and it will not be a tossup state in '16. Too many blacks and browns in Essex, Camden, Passaic and Hudson counties for Trump to win over.

It's okay, he has a great relationship with the blacks.

Yes. How you do you think he gets the labor for his casinos? He has done a wonderful, wonderful job of helping the blacks in New Jersey. And he knows it. Because the blacks are wonderful people!

[Stranger in a strange land]

I have a feeling that this is a case of undecideds being undecided about whether they'll vote Democratic. Trump will do better than a generic R, but not by enough to win the state.

[libertpaulian]

I have a feeling that this is a case of undecideds being undecided about whether they'll vote Democratic. Trump will do better than a generic R, but not by enough to win the state.

If Trump is doing well enough that Clinton only wins NJ by 7-12%, that means he's winning the election.