Clinton vs. Trump vs. 3rd party GOP

[Fuzzy Bear]

Let's not be foolish here. This third party candidate won't win any states, and there will be no difference, besides maybe a few states swinging towards Clinton.

I think it's possible for the third party candidate to carry a few states, even if they did so by GOP electors in those states being pledged to that ticket rather than the Trump ticket.  It would be taking a page from the Strom Thurmond/George Wallace playbook.

[This account no longer in use.]

Except George Wallace won states in 1968, years before. More recently, Ross Perot got 19 percent of the vote, and still didn't win any states.

[Vosem]

There is no way Republicans hold the Senate if a 3rd party GOPer runs. Democrats would pick up about 10 seats, maybe even enough to hold the Senate after the 2018 midterms.

How does this make any sense? You'd have two Republican turnout machines working, probably holding Hillary to around ~45% even as she wins her sweeping landslide. It would look like an Obama midterm downballot.

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[This account no longer in use.]

No, it'd look nothing like 2010 or 2014 downballot. For one thing, which Democratic seats can the GOP even pick up? Nevada? Maybe Colorado? Plus, it doesn't look like they have many house seats left either.

[Vosem]

No, it'd look nothing like 2010 or 2014 downballot. For one thing, which Democratic seats can the GOP even pick up? Nevada? Maybe Colorado? Plus, it doesn't look like they have many house seats left either.

Not in terms of pickups, in terms of results. Combined Right would beat Hillary by high single-digits in all the classical swing states (OH, PA, FL, NH), and even as Hillary receives their electoral votes, the rising tide would lift Republican Senate and House candidates to victory. Democrats would probably still make small gains because there's almost nowhere left for the Republicans to gain, but it would be extremely minor; the Republican Senate and House majorities would both be preserved, and barely weaker than they are now.

[Fuzzy Bear]

There is no way Republicans hold the Senate if a 3rd party GOPer runs. Democrats would pick up about 10 seats, maybe even enough to hold the Senate after the 2018 midterms.

How does this make any sense? You'd have two Republican turnout machines working, probably holding Hillary to around ~45% even as she wins her sweeping landslide. It would look like an Obama midterm downballot.

Except Republicans wouldn't turn out to vote because the outcome of the presidential election would be predetermined. The party would literally tear itself apart. The delusion of the #NeverTrump guys is truly a sight to behold.

There really is no limit to the depth and breadth of Trump Denial.

[Vosem]

There is no way Republicans hold the Senate if a 3rd party GOPer runs. Democrats would pick up about 10 seats, maybe even enough to hold the Senate after the 2018 midterms.

How does this make any sense? You'd have two Republican turnout machines working, probably holding Hillary to around ~45% even as she wins her sweeping landslide. It would look like an Obama midterm downballot.

Except Republicans wouldn't turn out to vote because the outcome of the presidential election would be predetermined. The party would literally tear itself apart. The delusion of the #NeverTrump guys is truly a sight to behold.

Just like Democrats didn't turn out to vote against Rubio or LePage in 2010, right? Or how Hickenlooper's victory in Colorado stopped Republicans from making any downballot gains.

It's a pretty theory, but polling data this year and the historical experience of pretty much every three-cornered election ever held in America suggest otherwise.

[cwt]

Except George Wallace won states in 1968, years before. 

Because he was on the ballot in some states as the Democratic candidate. He didn't run as a third party.