SD-Targeted Persuasion: Clinton +3

[Landslide Lyndon]

It could be accurate. I think South Dakota and New Mexico will probably be the closest states on 6/7. I'm hoping Sanders pulls it off just for the sake of the final primary map.

New Mexico will be a closed primary where almost half the voters will be minorities. I don't see how it will be close unless the state's Hispanics vote radically different compared to those in Texas and Arizona.

[Landslide Lyndon]

South Dakota went for Hillary in 2008 by 10 points. Let's not disregard that.

She likely only won it because she campaigned there while Obama ignored it and pivoted to the general (sound familiar?)

Besides, she got crushed in a state she won by 40+ points last time, so it seems quite safe to disregard it.

West Virginia and Kentucky do not equal South Dakota. Totally different states with totally different economic situations.

That's true, but I think IceSpear's point was that Hillary only won SD in '08 because she actively campaigned there, while Obama mostly ignored the state. This time, it will probably be the other way around: Sanders will likely be visiting the state quite a bit, while Clinton will probably ignore it.

Also, something which merits mention, since someone brought up New Mexico: Even though Hillary did very well among Latinos in 2008 as well, she just barely won New Mexico (by about 1.1%.) Then again, she did much better in AZ this time around, so the same could be true for NM.

Sanders has visited the state only once IIRC and both he and Clinton will likely spend the entire next week in California.
Maybe it would be better for her to send Bill and other surrogates instead.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Hillary winning here in 2008 was definitely more of her putting effort into doing so, rather than than the state simply being anti-Obama like WV and KY. 

Obama also had the entire SD Democratic establishment supporting him (Daschle, Johnson, Herseth), so her win was a considerable embarrassment for them.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It could be accurate. I think South Dakota and New Mexico will probably be the closest states on 6/7. I'm hoping Sanders pulls it off just for the sake of the final primary map.

New Mexico will be a closed primary where almost half the voters will be minorities. I don't see how it will be close unless the state's Hispanics vote radically different compared to those in Texas and Arizona.

Keep in mind that Obama lost hispanics in New Mexico by 62%-36% in 2008 and still basically tied Clinton. I expect Clinton to win but it'll probably be within single digits.

That wasn't a primary.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Better than Quinnipiac.