Democrats, the party of urbanites. (user search)
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  Democrats, the party of urbanites. (search mode)
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Author Topic: Democrats, the party of urbanites.  (Read 5320 times)
Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


« on: May 27, 2016, 04:36:22 PM »

2012 marked the most concentrated electoral votes of any presidential election ever. Just 25 counties were needed for victory. Obama could have lost every other county in America and still prevailed with the following:

WASHINGTON - KING COUNTY
OREGON - MULTNOMAH COUNTY
NEVADA - CLARK COUNTY
CALIFORNIA - LOS ANGELES COUNTY
ILLINOIS - COOK COUNTY
MARYLAND - PRINCE GEORGE COUNTY
MICHIGAN - WAYNE COUNTY
PENNSYLVANIA - PHILADELPHIA COUNTY
MASSACHUSETTS - MIDDLESEX COUNTY
CONNECTICUT - HARTFORD COUNTY
NEW JERSEY - ESSEX COUNTY
NEW YORK - KINGS COUNTY
MINNESOTA - HENNEPIN COUNTY
WISCONSIN - MILWAUKEE COUNTY
WISCONSIN - DANE COUNTY
OHIO - MAHONING COUNTY
OHIO - CUYAHOGA COUNTY
OHIO - LUCAS COUNTY
OHIO - FRANKLIN COUNTY
FLORIDA - LEON COUNTY
FLORIDA - PALM BEACH COUNTY
FLORIDA - BROWARD COUNTY
FLORIDA - MIAMI-DADE COUNTY
FLORIDA - HILLSBORO COUNTY
FLORIDA - PINIELLAS COUNTY
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


« Reply #1 on: May 27, 2016, 04:40:08 PM »

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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


« Reply #2 on: May 27, 2016, 04:41:28 PM »

Not as simple to figure out as it may seem. Wink If you go back in the past, you won't find any election as heavily concentrated in a few counties.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


« Reply #3 on: May 27, 2016, 04:48:50 PM »

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Add a few more and you'd have the true FREIWALL. It's not really states, but counties. You could, literally, run a campaign bus from Boston down to Maryland - then take a flight into Minneapolis - do another bus run from Minneapolis to Cleveland, then fly over to Vegas, then LA, then Portland and roll bus from Portland into Washington, and cover every county you need.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


« Reply #4 on: May 28, 2016, 01:37:40 AM »

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Obama's margin in Kings County alone is greater than the total Romney margin in all the New York counties won by Romney. In states where democrats won all the counties, one county would be sufficient (as Romney had no margin anywhere).

However, this path, is why Clark and Vegas are on the list and places like Hawaii and Rhode Island are not - because Nevada has more EC votes tied up in Clark county. Even with the multiple counties for Ohio and Florida, this is the minimum number of counties needed to win.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


« Reply #5 on: May 28, 2016, 01:40:08 AM »

F'rinstance in Wisconsin, Obama requires both Dane and Milwaukee in order to overcome the combined Romney margin in the counties that Romney won.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


« Reply #6 on: May 28, 2016, 01:44:10 AM »
« Edited: May 28, 2016, 02:01:28 AM by IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi »

As for the math:

Kings county (Brooklyn) 604,443 Obama
Kings county (Brooklyn) 124,551 Romney.

That gives Obama a +480k voting bloc.

Romney counties:

Putnam 24,083 R
Putnam 19,512 D

Greene 11,174 R
Greene  9,030 D

Delaware 9,983 R
Delaware 8,304 D

Schoharie 7,467 R
Schoharie 5,427 D

Chenango 9,713 R
Chenango 9,116 D

Tioga 12,117 R
Tioga  8,930 D

Chemung 17,612 R
Chemung 16,797 D

Schuyler 4,281 R
Schuyler 3,674 D

Steuben 21,974 R
Steuben 15,787 D

Yates 4,798 R
Yates 4,488 D

Ontario 23,830 R
Ontario 23,087 D

Wayne 20,060 R
Wayne 16,635 D

Livingston 14,448 R
Livingston 11,705 D

Allegany 10,390 R
Allegany  6,139 D

Cattaraugus 16,569 R
Cattaraugus 12,649 D

Chautauqua 27,971 R
Chautauqua 23,812 D

Wyoming 10,348 R
Wyoming  5,661 D

Genesee  14,607 R
Genesee   9,601 D

Orleans  8,594 R
Orleans  5,787 D

Montgomery 9,334 R
Montgomery 8,493 D

Fulton 10,812 R
Fulton 8,607 D

Hamilton 1,932 R
Hamilton 1,128 D

Herkimer 13,282 R
Herkimer 11,273 D

Oneida 44,530 R
Oneida 40,468 D

Lewis 5,651 R
Lewis 4,724 D

Jefferson 18,122 R
Jefferson 17,099 D


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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


« Reply #7 on: May 28, 2016, 02:03:55 AM »
« Edited: May 28, 2016, 02:11:49 AM by IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi »

Romney would have needed to win 27 counties by a margin of 17k per county in order to overcome Obama's lead in Kings.

He exceeded 5k in Putnam, Steuben, Genesee, and 10k in none, ergo Kings alone was more than enough.

Total Romney margin was 65,749 over all the counties he won.

If I wanted to be particularly facetious, Obama could lose every county but Erie County and still win New York state.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


« Reply #8 on: May 28, 2016, 12:30:38 PM »

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I was staggered by the results of this and the implication. Philadelphia is the most striking example, IMO.
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