New Jersey-FDU Clinton +11 (user search)
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  New Jersey-FDU Clinton +11 (search mode)
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Author Topic: New Jersey-FDU Clinton +11  (Read 1977 times)
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« on: May 24, 2016, 10:56:46 PM »


lol, the gap between Hillary and Bernie in terms of general election performances is just getting ridiculous.

Yeah, but we know why and it'll largely be over soon.



1. Party Affiliation Statistics in NJ. April,30,2016

http://www.njelections.org/2016-results/2016-05-voter-registration-by-congressional-district.pdf

Total : 5.50 Mil

DEM: 1.77 Mil / 5.50 Mil = 32.2% | REP: 1.077 Mil / 5.50 Mil = 19.5%

Indpendent: 2.65 Mil / 5.50 Mil = 48.2%


2. Fairleigh Dickinson 5/18-5/22 Results
http://view2.fdu.edu/publicmind/2016/160525/

(The Point is TRUMP beat Hillary of Independents in NJ)

DEM: Hillary 80% | TRUMP 7% | REP: TRUMP 74% | Hillary 10%
Ind: TRUMP 47% | Hillary 35%


3. Convert the Poll as Realistic Demographics

1) TRUMP
32.2%(DEM) X 7% + 19.5%(REP) X 74% + Ind(48.2%) x 47% = 39.33%

2) Hillary
32.2%(DEM) X 80% + 19.5%(REP) X 10% + Ind(48.2%) x 35% = 44.58%

just 5% gaps. Which is fightable(if he fully unifies the GOP, induce increase turnouts of Independents. plus trying to get 10%+ish of Democrats in NJ)





This will sound terribly harsh... but no one cares.

Please stop.
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