New Jersey-FDU Clinton +11 (user search)
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  New Jersey-FDU Clinton +11 (search mode)
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Author Topic: New Jersey-FDU Clinton +11  (Read 1915 times)
StatesPoll
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Posts: 441
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« on: May 24, 2016, 10:52:58 PM »


1. Party Affiliation Statistics in NJ. April,30,2016

http://www.njelections.org/2016-results/2016-05-voter-registration-by-congressional-district.pdf

Total : 5.50 Mil

DEM: 1.77 Mil / 5.50 Mil = 32.2% | REP: 1.077 Mil / 5.50 Mil = 19.5%

Indpendent: 2.65 Mil / 5.50 Mil = 48.2%


2. Fairleigh Dickinson 5/18-5/22 Results
http://view2.fdu.edu/publicmind/2016/160525/

(The Point is TRUMP beat Hillary of Independents in NJ)

DEM: Hillary 80% | TRUMP 7% | REP: TRUMP 74% | Hillary 10%
Ind: TRUMP 47% | Hillary 35%


3. Convert the Poll as Realistic Demographics

1) TRUMP
32.2%(DEM) X 7% + 19.5%(REP) X 74% + Ind(48.2%) x 47% = 39.33%

2) Hillary
32.2%(DEM) X 80% + 19.5%(REP) X 10% + Ind(48.2%) x 35% = 44.58%

just 5% gaps. Which is fightable(if he fully unifies the GOP, induce increase turnouts of Independents. plus trying to get 10%+ish of Democrats in NJ)



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StatesPoll
Jr. Member
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Posts: 441
WWW
« Reply #1 on: May 24, 2016, 11:44:15 PM »
« Edited: May 24, 2016, 11:47:11 PM by StatesPoll »


1. Party Affiliation Statistics in NJ. April,30,2016

http://www.njelections.org/2016-results/2016-05-voter-registration-by-congressional-district.pdf

Total : 5.50 Mil

DEM: 1.77 Mil / 5.50 Mil = 32.2% | REP: 1.077 Mil / 5.50 Mil = 19.5%

Indpendent: 2.65 Mil / 5.50 Mil = 48.2%


2. Fairleigh Dickinson 5/18-5/22 Results
http://view2.fdu.edu/publicmind/2016/160525/

(The Point is TRUMP beat Hillary of Independents in NJ)

DEM: Hillary 80% | TRUMP 7% | REP: TRUMP 74% | Hillary 10%
Ind: TRUMP 47% | Hillary 35%


3. Convert the Poll as Realistic Demographics

1) TRUMP
32.2%(DEM) X 7% + 19.5%(REP) X 74% + Ind(48.2%) x 47% = 39.33%

2) Hillary
32.2%(DEM) X 80% + 19.5%(REP) X 10% + Ind(48.2%) x 35% = 44.58%

just 5% gaps. Which is fightable(if he fully unifies the GOP, induce increase turnouts of Independents. plus trying to get 10%+ish of Democrats in NJ)





I dont think you need to unskew so much.

'unskew so much'?

it just: Hillary -3.44%. TRUMP + 1.33%
Which is based on realistic demographics.
( Party Affiliation Statistics in NJ. April,30,2016 )

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