New Jersey-FDU Clinton +11

[Fusionmunster]

BUT NEW JERSEY IS THE SWING STATE

Trump losing by 11 would be a better showing than either McCain or Romney.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nj/new_jersey_romney_vs_obama-1912.html

Hillary is polling exactly like Obama was in NJ. Might I add the multiple single digit Quinnipiac polls.

[Fusionmunster]

New Jersey
Clinton 48%
Trump 37%

http://view2.fdu.edu/publicmind/2016/160525/

1. Party Affiliation Statistics in NJ. April,30,2016

http://www.njelections.org/2016-results/2016-05-voter-registration-by-congressional-district.pdf

Total : 5.50 Mil

DEM: 1.77 Mil / 5.50 Mil = 32.2% | REP: 1.077 Mil / 5.50 Mil = 19.5%

Indpendent: 2.65 Mil / 5.50 Mil = 48.2%


2. Fairleigh Dickinson 5/18-5/22 Results
http://view2.fdu.edu/publicmind/2016/160525/

(The Point is TRUMP beat Hillary of Independents in NJ)

DEM: Hillary 80% | TRUMP 7% | REP: TRUMP 74% | Hillary 10%
Ind: TRUMP 47% | Hillary 35%


3. Convert the Poll as Realistic Demographics

1) TRUMP
32.2%(DEM) X 7% + 19.5%(REP) X 74% + Ind(48.2%) x 47% = 39.33%

2) Hillary
32.2%(DEM) X 80% + 19.5%(REP) X 10% + Ind(48.2%) x 35% = 44.58%

just 5% gaps. Which is fightable(if he fully unifies the GOP, induce increase turnouts of Independents. plus trying to get 10%+ish of Democrats in NJ)

I dont think you need to unskew so much.