IBD/TIPP National: Clinton 45 Trump 40

[HillOfANight]

http://www.investors.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/ibdtipp-Tables_June2016_Posting-1.pdf
http://www.investors.com/politics/clintons-lead-over-trump-narrows-as-disappointment-with-choices-grows/

With Johnson,

Clinton 39
Trump 35
Johnson 11

Page 49 has crosstabs. Trump only has 74% of GOP, Hillary has 84% of Dems.

[MT Treasurer]

Interesting crosstabs:

Vote by region

South: 44% Trump, 43% Clinton
Midwest: 43% Clinton, 37% Trump
Northeast: 48% Clinton, 39% Trump
West: 48% Clinton, 37% Trump

Vote by age

18-24 years old: 41% Clinton, 39% Trump
25-44 years old: 45% Clinton, 36% Trump
45-64 years old: 44% Trump, 43% Clinton
65+ years old: 48% Clinton, 43% Trump

Vote by race

Whites: 48% Trump, 36% Clinton
Nonwhites: 70% Clinton, 15% Trump

[IceSpear]

Interesting crosstabs:

Vote by region

South: 44% Trump, 43% Clinton
Midwest: 43% Clinton, 37% Trump
Northeast: 48% Clinton, 39% Trump
West: 48% Clinton, 37% Trump

Vote by age

18-24 years old: 41% Clinton, 39% Trump
25-44 years old: 45% Clinton, 36% Trump
45-64 years old: 44% Trump, 43% Clinton
65+ years old: 48% Clinton, 43% Trump

Vote by race

Whites: 48% Trump, 36% Clinton
Nonwhites: 70% Clinton, 15% Trump

If those racial crosstabs are correct, shouldn't her lead be much higher than 5?

[HillOfANight]

On page 49, it says 595 white voters and 169 Black/Hisp (764 together). So they have a 78% white sample??? Not sure why it doesn't add up to their total of 828.

[IceSpear]

On page 49, it says 595 white voters and 169 Black/Hisp (764 together). So they have a 78% white sample??? Not sure why it doesn't add up to their total of 828.

78% white? HAHAHAHAHAHA. I have just the spot for this poll...

[HillOfANight]

That could just be the # of respondents, and they later reweighted them, but it's not clear from what they showed if that is the case.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Jfern's favorite pollster.

[LLR]

Basic demographic extrapolation nets this map:

(Also a popular vote of 55-42, so the accuracy of this is likely pretty low.)

[Mr. Morden]

On page 49, it says 595 white voters and 169 Black/Hisp (764 together). So they have a 78% white sample??? Not sure why it doesn't add up to their total of 828.

No.  78% of the people responding doesn't mean that they're assuming a 78% white electorate.  It just means that 78% of the people who responded to their poll are white.  But every pollster does demographic weighting once they've conducted the poll.

[HillOfANight]

A lot of pollsters include the unweighted/weighted %/# in the sample, I couldn't find it here

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I'm so confused by this thread. It's a 72% white sample. Did we forget Asians and Native Americans exist?

[HillOfANight]

I didn't see them as a subgroup, but I guess if you divide the white # / total #, it's 72%, instead of dividing white / (white+black+hispanic)...

[Mr. Morden]

I didn't see them as a subgroup, but I guess if you divide the white # / total #, it's 72%, instead of dividing white / (white+black+hispanic)...

Right.  But again, that's just the %age who responded.  They presumably did some weighting (like every other pollster does), so we don't actually know what is the inferred racial breakdown once weighting is applied.