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  Talk Elections
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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  CA- Survey USA/ABC7: Clinton +14 (search mode)
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Author Topic: CA- Survey USA/ABC7: Clinton +14  (Read 1838 times)
Seriously?
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Posts: 3,029
United States


« on: May 23, 2016, 06:04:33 pm »


Who has an Electoral College problem now?

On a more serious note, what if we are all reading the Trump phenomenon wrong?  His strongest primary wins outside of WV have been in culturally blue, relatively secular suburbs in the NE.  There are two distinct legs to the Trump coalition, and the blue suburban moderate leg has been almost completely overlooked.  I also wonder if we are too quick to the draw in assigning traditional battleground and lean D Midwestern states to him.  With the exception of MI and metro Chicago (which fits with the aforementioned NE areas in many ways), there was a massive falloff in Trump support as you move N and W from the Ohio River.  I might worry more about PA/NH/MI than MN/WI/IA if I were on the Clinton campaign.
Trump seems to do better with Roman Catholic areas than WASP ones and the more blue-collar suburbs as opposed to the white collar ones. He doesn't play as well in Cobb County as he would Cherokee, for example, in Georgia.

What will be interesting to me is whether Hillary will be able to bounce back from this race becoming competitive. In primary season, Trump rarely allowed the other candidates to get much momentum back. Obviously, we are talking about an electorate that is a lot more inelastic here, but....
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