Is Hillary really in trouble?

[Lyin' Steve]

Let's ask the simple question.  We've got all these polls coming out that show Trump competitive in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, New Hampshire, etc.
Trump/Sanders supporters have been celebrating, Hillary supporters and some Sanders democrats have been defensive, but there hasn't been much debate between the two, both are just deciding to keep their own versions of reality.  Atlas must confront the uncomfortable truth and decide what we believe.
Is Hillary in trouble?  Is Trump just getting a temporary post-nomination bump?  Is Hillary stuck in primary mode and she'll do better once she gets her general election game on?  Are the Sanders children hurting her numbers by being little babies and telling pollsters they won't support her?  Is she perfectly fine but for some other reason?
Please don't say "of course she's fine, Trump's a racist-sexist-xenophobe-latinophobe-homophobe-transphobe-arachnophobe-bigot so she's destined for victory" I think that argument is about as dead as "the party decides" by now, or at least it should be.

[Ljube]

Trump has only just begun to unite the Republican Party.
On the other hand, Hillary has not even started to unite the Democratic Party yet.

It's way to early to tell and it depends on what "Hillary is in trouble" really means.
If it means she won't win in a landslide, then yes, she is in trouble.
If it means she will lose, then no, she is not in trouble yet.

[MK]

Trump is sealing the GOP base some that alone will tighten the numbers.  What should worry he Hillary camp is the  women "sexist" card might backfire as its digging up new and old stuff about Bill Clinton( the sex plane).  The New York times and others last week attempted to swiftboat Trump and he just swatted them away.  I have to admit I didn't like Trump digging up the 1990s but its worked masterfully.   Trump could very well go off the rails and prove not electable.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Things change.

That is the one lesson here which people need to come in mind.

Trump will improve in certain areas at Hillary's expense, and visa versa.

I think she is favourite, but Trump will challenge hard.

[Podgy the Bear]

We still have six months to go until November.  There will be twists and turns throughout, but the electoral fundamentals favor Hillary. 

The built-in Democratic advantage of 242 electoral votes shows no sign of cracking.  Sorry Repubs, you're not going to win Pennsylvania or Wisconsin.  This leaves Hillary to focus on 28 electoral votes on states that are entirely winnable.  In other words, follow the Obama map.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Clinton is not in trouble yet, but early signs for her national campaign are troubling.

[Mr. Smith]

Clinton is not in trouble yet, but early signs for her national campaign are troubling.

[Fuzzy Bear]

We still have six months to go until November.  There will be twists and turns throughout, but the electoral fundamentals favor Hillary. 

The built-in Democratic advantage of 242 electoral votes shows no sign of cracking.  Sorry Repubs, you're not going to win Pennsylvania or Wisconsin.  This leaves Hillary to focus on 28 electoral votes on states that are entirely winnable.  In other words, follow the Obama map.

The highlighted portion of the quote is what the GOP has to do to really threaten Hillary.  I don't see the GOP winning WI or MI, but PA is not out of the question because of the large swath of PA that is more like Appalachia than WI or MI.  Trump has really appealed to folks in Appalachia, and Obama has deeply offended them.  Appalachia is coal country, and the Democrats have gone too far down the road of "clean energy" to walk back the Obama record on coal.

[Angrie]

If anyone could blow a surefire win, it would be Hillary. However, Trump is mainly just getting a temporary bounce from the fact that the GOP primary ended before the Dem primary.

[President Johnson]

She is, because she's actually a weak candidate who does not excite people.

[KingSweden]

Trump has only just begun to unite the Republican Party.
On the other hand, Hillary has not even started to unite the Democratic Party yet.

It's way to early to tell and it depends on what "Hillary is in trouble" really means.
If it means she won't win in a landslide, then yes, she is in trouble.
If it means she will lose, then no, she is not in trouble yet.

This is actually pretty good analysis.

[psychprofessor]

We have three polls all showing Georgia within 2-3 points and Arizona within 2 points and people think Hillary is in trouble?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

We'll see.

[Vosem]

We have three polls all showing Georgia within 2-3 points and Arizona within 2 points and people think Hillary is in trouble?

Welcome to Atlas. They won't face reality until Election Night.

[SillyAmerican]

If anyone could blow a surefire win, it would be Hillary. However, Trump is mainly just getting a temporary bounce from the fact that the GOP primary ended before the Dem primary.

Yes. And implicit in the OP's question is a question directed to your comment: why is that? Why is Hillary having trouble closing the deal, given her name, her backing, her experience, etc. etc.? Trump has won his party's nomination, besting 16 other candidates; Hillary has yet to put away a 74 year old socialist from Vermont. In my opinion, that in itself serves to answer the question posed...

[tallguy23]

Too early to say anything yet. Trump and Hillary are both unpopular candidates but there's a huge difference in reactions from people.

Hillary = ugh
Trump = fear

[President Johnson]

We have three polls all showing Georgia within 2-3 points and Arizona within 2 points and people think Hillary is in trouble?

Welcome to Atlas. They won't face reality until Election Night.

We also have polls for the GE showing TRUMP in the lead, and we have polls with The Donald leading or very competative in Florida and Ohio, as well as polls where he's close in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and New Jersey. And TRUMP has just started yet.

[Virginiá]

We have three polls all showing Georgia within 2-3 points and Arizona within 2 points and people think Hillary is in trouble?

Welcome to Atlas. They won't face reality until Election Night.

We also have polls for the GE showing TRUMP in the lead, and we have polls with The Donald leading or very competative in Florida and Ohio, as well as polls where he's close in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and New Jersey. And TRUMP has just started yet.

And after those +2/+5 polls for Trump were released, another showing +6 for Clinton was released. She still has the lead in RCP's average.

Seriously, I wouldn't start getting excited just yet. Clinton has been in the lead for the vast majority of GE matchup polls so far, and the fact that Trump hasn't consistently lead her for any significant amount of time is pretty bad when you look at past races. Romney was doing far better in the polls than Trump at this time and he still ended up losing by 3+ points.

It also seems funny that the majority of the polls favorable to Trump have come from FOX or Rasmussen, who has been shown to have a Republican bias before.

[7,052,770]

If anyone could blow a surefire win, it would be Hillary. However, Trump is mainly just getting a temporary bounce from the fact that the GOP primary ended before the Dem primary.

Where does this meme even come from? Hillary won a Senate race as a carpetbagger and almost beat Barack Obama of all people in 2008 and was able to secure the nomination in 2016 despite a huge anti-establishment sentiment in America.

Even if you could argue that she's a bad candidate somehow, there's obviously plenty who have been way worse. How about Martha Coakley blowing a race in Massachusetts twice. Or Bruce Braley, Denny Rehberg, Rick Berg, Jeb Bush, etc.

[IceSpear]

Define "in trouble." If you mean "can she lose?", then yes, she certainly can lose, and that has always been true. If you mean from factors now? Absolutely not. Polls this early mean little, and as the options in your poll show, much of it is just from Trump's nomination bounce and the Sanders stuff.

[IceSpear]

If anyone could blow a surefire win, it would be Hillary. However, Trump is mainly just getting a temporary bounce from the fact that the GOP primary ended before the Dem primary.

Where does this meme even come from? Hillary won a Senate race as a carpetbagger and almost beat Barack Obama of all people in 2008 and was able to secure the nomination in 2016 despite a huge anti-establishment sentiment in America.

Even if you could argue that she's a bad candidate somehow, there's obviously plenty who have been way worse. How about Martha Coakley blowing a race in Massachusetts twice. Or Bruce Braley, Denny Rehberg, Rick Berg, Jeb Bush, etc.

Sexism and saltiness.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If anyone could blow a surefire win, it would be Hillary. However, Trump is mainly just getting a temporary bounce from the fact that the GOP primary ended before the Dem primary.

Where does this meme even come from? Hillary won a Senate race as a carpetbagger and almost beat Barack Obama of all people in 2008 and was able to secure the nomination in 2016 despite a huge anti-establishment sentiment in America.

Even if you could argue that she's a bad candidate somehow, there's obviously plenty who have been way worse. How about Martha Coakley blowing a race in Massachusetts twice. Or Bruce Braley, Denny Rehberg, Rick Berg, Jeb Bush, etc.

Hillary. Because she'll win Massachusetts in November, unlike Martha Coakley.

LOL.

[IceSpear]

If anyone could blow a surefire win, it would be Hillary. However, Trump is mainly just getting a temporary bounce from the fact that the GOP primary ended before the Dem primary.

Where does this meme even come from? Hillary won a Senate race as a carpetbagger and almost beat Barack Obama of all people in 2008 and was able to secure the nomination in 2016 despite a huge anti-establishment sentiment in America.

Even if you could argue that she's a bad candidate somehow, there's obviously plenty who have been way worse. How about Martha Coakley blowing a race in Massachusetts twice. Or Bruce Braley, Denny Rehberg, Rick Berg, Jeb Bush, etc.

Hillary. Because she'll win Massachusetts in November, unlike Martha Coakley.

LOL.

Well she certainly won it in the primary, when it was supposed to be a certain someone's turf.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If anyone could blow a surefire win, it would be Hillary. However, Trump is mainly just getting a temporary bounce from the fact that the GOP primary ended before the Dem primary.

Where does this meme even come from? Hillary won a Senate race as a carpetbagger and almost beat Barack Obama of all people in 2008 and was able to secure the nomination in 2016 despite a huge anti-establishment sentiment in America.

Even if you could argue that she's a bad candidate somehow, there's obviously plenty who have been way worse. How about Martha Coakley blowing a race in Massachusetts twice. Or Bruce Braley, Denny Rehberg, Rick Berg, Jeb Bush, etc.

Hillary. Because she'll win Massachusetts in November, unlike Martha Coakley.

LOL.

Well she certainly won it in the primary, when it was supposed to be a certain someone's turf.

She won it by 16 in 2008 despite Obama having all the top endorsements (Senator John Kerry, Senator Ted Kennedy, and Governor Deval Patrick). All Bernie had was Paul Kirk.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If anyone could blow a surefire win, it would be Hillary. However, Trump is mainly just getting a temporary bounce from the fact that the GOP primary ended before the Dem primary.

Where does this meme even come from? Hillary won a Senate race as a carpetbagger and almost beat Barack Obama of all people in 2008 and was able to secure the nomination in 2016 despite a huge anti-establishment sentiment in America.

The main reason she was able to secure the nomination is because she secured a bunch of early endorsements and donors and used that to scare away at least 5 potential candidates. I mean seriously, an out and out socialist with no super pac, zero name recognition coming into the race, and an officially independent party affiliation has won 21 contests against her so far, had spurts of time where he seemed like a real threat, has kept her from clinching the nomination before June despite doing terribly among superdelegates, and may defeat her in the most populous state. She might have actually lost against a more sane opponent. I bet Biden and Warren and Klobuchar and maybe even Hickenlooper all spend time thinking "Wow. If a socialist is doing this well, what would have happened if I was in the race?". You can try and knock down each of these potential candidacies, but the reality is you never know.

Hillary should count herself lucky she is running against such a terrible opponent. I honestly feel she'd be a severe underdog to Kasich, Rubio or Paul.