FL- Florida Chamber of Commerce: Clinton +2

[pbrower2a]

And this comes from the sort of entity from which I would expect a poll to favor the GOP.

[pbrower2a]

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Only 21% favorables for Trump among Florida Hispanics, who are the most Republican of Hispanics in any state.......

The Cuban-Americans (and they are now largely born in America, as Castro took over nearly 60 years ago) who fled Castro in the '50s and '60s may be among the most politically-conservative Hispanics. The later waves of Hispanics (the Mariel Boat Lift) are much less conservative politically. They lost nothing in Cuba. Florida has many other Hispanics, too, and those on the whole would be like non-Cuban Hispanics elsewhere in America in political orientation.

Even the descendants of first-wave refugees from Castro are much more assimilated, and they have concerns other than hatred for Fidel Castro.

 

[pbrower2a]

People tend to vote more Republican as they get older (and wiser).

Not so fast. People can become more entrenched in liberal causes as they get older. Unions. Minority advocacy groups.

It's telling that in 2008, income was practically of no value as a proxy for Republican voting. Completion of formal education had a negative correlation to Republican voting. In 1950 the best-educated states voted for Dwight Eisenhower and the least-educated states voted for Adlai Stevenson. That is almost the opposite of 2008 and 2012.

"Older and wiser" implies having more ability to detect the contradictory statements and promises of a demagogue, and when the Republican proves to be a demagogue... just think of how that will work in the general election.

[pbrower2a]

People tend to vote more Republican as they get older (and wiser).

Not so fast. People can become more entrenched in liberal causes as they get older. Unions. Minority advocacy groups.

It's telling that in 2008, income was practically of no value as a proxy for Republican voting. Completion of formal education had a negative correlation to Republican voting. In 1950 the best-educated states voted for Dwight Eisenhower and the least-educated states voted for Adlai Stevenson. That is almost the opposite of 2008 and 2012.

"Older and wiser" implies having more ability to detect the contradictory statements and promises of a demagogue, and when the Republican proves to be a demagogue... just think of how that will work in the general election.

"Older and wiser" also implies having more ability to detect a crook. And I'll take a demagogue before I take a crook any day of the week and twice on Tuesday.

You´ve consistently taken the King of Crooks over anything else so far. Which suggests, in your own terms, certain lack of wisdom - whether it is accompanies by youth, I shall not hazard my opinion about.

Do you even know what a crook is? I guess, you are one of those "more entrenched in liberal causes as they get older" types pbrower is talking about. Blind for transgressions of your chosen candidate.

I am not sure whether by "crook" you mean the more liberal nominee. I don't see liberals more likely to take bribes, commit embezzlement, or make sweetheart deals with special interests. If by 'crookedness' you imply deviation from some right-libertarian orthodoxy, then you have an ideological definition of political criminality.

It's hard to predict who will take bribes, embezzle, or cut sweetheart deals with cronies. Damage does not require overt criminality; thus the real estate bubble involving the Bush II administration that depended upon predatory sub-prime lending and a gutting of investment outside of the housing/lending racket.

It is not fair to call someone a crook for being where he is on the political spectrum unless someone shows signs of support for violation of human rights or for starting wars of aggression, or being associated with groups (Nazis, fascists, commies) infamous for violations of human rights and for aggressive warfare.