Do you realize that posts like these say nothing at all? You look unintelligent, and it makes discussions on this website appear worthless.
If you think that the notion of Trump's winning Oregon is blasphemous, then offer an intelligent explanation, pointing at (for examples) demographics, trends, polls, and past performances in the state.
I could easily say, "OREGON. MIGHT. VOTE. FOR. TRUMP."; and that claim would be just as credible as your post, as you offer no explanation. Anyone can state something, but few people can argue for it.
The inherent political math makes it extremely difficult for a Republican to win statewide, at least with the types of candidates the party has been offering over the past few decades.
Basically in order to have a competitive statewide election a Republican candidate needs to accomplish three things:
1.) Keep down the margins from Liberal Democratic strongholds (Multnomah, Lane, and Benton counties).
2.) Perform extremely well in the Portland suburbs (Washington and Clackamas) and the Mid-Valley as well as flipping Marion County (Salem) and essentially tie or have a net plurality.
3.) Drive Democratic numbers to the floor in Southern and Eastern Oregon to maximize the vote margins and offset #1.
So for example Multnomah County alone provides a raw Democratic vote margin of 100k (2000) to 200k (2008 and 2016) votes and Lane County 15k (2000)-50k. (2008) for a low margin of 115k (2000) and a high of 250k (2008) that all need to be made up from regions #2 and #3.
What conditions would it take?
1.) Low turnout and large 3rd party vote from Sanders supporters in heavily Democratic areas of Multnomah, Lane, and Benton County where Nader got 6-7% in 2000 to keep down the margins to a more manageable 115k D margin.
2.) Running the table in what should be Trump's best regions of the state (Southern and Eastern Oregon) where his economic populist message should play significantly better than McCain '08 and Romney '12 and win most counties by roughly 70-30 margins and essentially garner an Obama > Trump swing and do closer to 2000 and 2004 Republican %. I do foresee some problems with his messaging in Deschutes and Jackson counties where there is frequently larger swings among higher-income socially-liberal and fiscally conservative type voters, although I can see Trump making some inroads into parts of Lane County that are more similar to Southern Oregon.
3.) Flipping the Portland suburbs and Mid-Valley region to make up the difference between Democratic margins in #1 and Republican margins in #2. This will be an extreme challenge. Although I can certainly see a Post-Obama Republican flip Clackamas and Marion counties, the reality is that in order to win statewide a Republican will need to perform extremely well in Washington County, which has been trending increasingly Democratic over the past few decades and is also becoming one of the more diverse counties in the state with a significant and growing population of Latino and Asian-American voters that find Trump's immigration rhetoric and language deeply disturbing. In addition, many of the higher income swing voters work in the Tech Industry (Intel) and for Nike, and are much less receptive to Trump's economic protectionist message.
