Oregon could be a swing state in 2016.

[StatesPoll]

Oregon is generally considered as Blue State. Yes, still it is.

But Oregon has a potential to be a swing state in 2016.


1. Party Affiliation (2014). Oregon Party Affiliation haven’t change much in last 2 years.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/05/27/state-party-registration_n_5399977.html

Democrats 39% Republican 31% Independents 30%

Considering 49% would be a winning numbers.

If TRUMP gets 15% of the Democrats, 90% of the Republican, 55% of the Independent.

39%(DEM) X 12% + 31%(Rep) x 90% + 30%(Inde) x 55% = 49.08%.


2. Racial Demogrpahics.

Voters Shares(considering Turnouts) in 2016, it would be

White 89% | Hispanic 6.5% | Black 2% | Asian 2.5%

If TRUMP could attract Reagan Democrats(mostly white), it is a worth to challenge.


3. 29% people in Oregon are Evangelical(2014). Which is 1% higher than Iowa. It could be a big favor for TRUMP. because recently he gets huge support of Evangelical.

http://www.pewforum.org/religious-landscape-study/religious-tradition/evangelical-protestant/

TRUMP marked 81% of the Evangelical in latest Poll.

Evangelicals: TRUMP 81%, Hillary 19% (OANN/Gravis 5/10)

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/732033604709191680


4. Romney(GOP) once chased Obama 43-47 of SurveryUSA Poll

(5/7-5/10/2012, 1468 RV)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=19eb906a-ae83-463b-9daa-3c3bda489d7d

Obama(D) 47% | Romney® 43%


5. TRUMP vs Hillary in Oregon. DHM Research May 6-9, 2016 901 RV.

http://res.cloudinary.com/bdy4ger4/image/upload/v1462998751/OPBFoxPrimaryElectionSurveyGeneralElection_ujlqhh.pdf

Page 9. TRUMP 32% | Hillary 43%  11% margins.

11% gap. But considering Those factors, it could be tighter than results.


1) TRUMP only got 6% of the democrats in Oregon could be a outlier.

(this poll had 351 RV samples of democrats)

2) TRUMP only got 66% of the Republican. But Considering Hillary got only 9% of the Republican, If TRUMP unifies the party. He could expand it to 90%ish. (if he gets +24% more of republican in Oregon. it means he could add +7.44% more than this poll. 31%(republican in Oregon) x 24%

= 7.44%

and if TRUMP gets 15% of the democrats. he could add 3.51%

(39% x +9% more than this poll = 3.51%)

Then it could be TRUMP 42.95% | Hillary 43%,  dead heat.

[StatesPoll]

Oregon: TRUMP beat Hillary Clout Research. 5/10-5/13 657 RV

http://cloutpolitical.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/31/2016/05/OR-Statewide-Poll-Memorandum-5-18-2016.pdf

TRUMP 44.4% | Hillary 42.2% | Undecided 13% (657 RV)

So, It proves I was right. And HH(Hillary Hooligan) in Atlas were wrong

[StatesPoll]

Ok, we shouldn't take the early polls too serious, but it clearly shows TRUMP's appeal. All the (media) talk that he gets defeated in a landslide is nonsense.We could really end up with something like this:

302 - 236

Btw, TRUMP could afford to lose either Virginia or Florida

Nice Map. Btw Why Iowa is for Hillary?

I think TRUMP has a decent chance in there. Because at least, he is a christian.
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/IA/president/
White Evan voters share in Iowa, still 38%ish.
Mormon Romney only got 64% of Evangelicals (Obama 35%)

Iowa it was Obama 52 - Romney 46
if Romney got 80% of White Evan / Obama got 19% of White Evan
Romney could add 6% (=38% x 16%), Obama could lose 6% (=38%x16%)

It could be Romney 52% - Obama 46%

Evangelicals: TRUMP 81%, Hillary 19% (OANN/Gravis(National Poll) 5/10)
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/732033604709191680

[StatesPoll]

Ok, we shouldn't take the early polls too serious, but it clearly shows TRUMP's appeal. All the (media) talk that he gets defeated in a landslide is nonsense.We could really end up with something like this:

302 - 236

Btw, TRUMP could afford to lose either Virginia or Florida

Add Nevada to Trump.

Not sure yet because of the latino population. But Nevada is more likely to switch than Iowa.

TRUMP has a big hotel in Nevada. He employs many Latino in there too.
If He gets 30%ish of Latino in NV (little bit worse than GOP's latino support in FL/TX)

He can win.

Racial Demographics in NV(CNN exit Poll 2012)
White 64% | Latino 19% |  Black 9% | Asian 5% | Other(Mostly Native American) 4%
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/NV/president/

Considering Gary Johnson and Jill Stein. 48% would be enough number to win NV

White 64% x 59% + Latino 19% x 30% + Black 9% x 10% + Asian 5% x 45% +
Other 4% x 45% = 48.41% = Win

[StatesPoll]

Bush came within 1% in 2000, though Nader played a role with that finish.

In 2004, Bush came within 5%, securing 866,000 votes (just 100,000 less than Obama's vote total here in 2012).

These numbers indicate some possibility of Oregon's becoming competitive in the future. It can flip in 2008-esque year in the GOP's favor.

Oregon is 8 percent more democratic then the nation so that requires the gop to win at least 54% of the popular vote to break even in oregon , and 54.5% to win Oregon so they need more like a Clinton 1996 margin or maybe even a Reagan 1980 to win Oregon

Jill Stein could be a trouble maker of Hillary in Oregon for sure.
(she already got 1.1% in OR(2012)

Considering Unfavorable rating of Hillary.

It is quite possible she gonna gnaw votes of White Liberals in Oregon

Imagine What If She gets 5%+ in Oregon this year = TRUMP wins Oregon for sure.