Oregon could be a swing state in 2016. (user search)
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  Oregon could be a swing state in 2016. (search mode)
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Author Topic: Oregon could be a swing state in 2016.  (Read 8228 times)
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

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« on: May 30, 2016, 01:51:23 AM »

Bush came within 1% in 2000, though Nader played a role with that finish.

In 2004, Bush came within 5%, securing 866,000 votes (just 100,000 less than Obama's vote total here in 2012).

These numbers indicate some possibility of Oregon's becoming competitive in the future. It can flip in 2008-esque year in the GOP's favor.

Oregon is 8 percent more democratic then the nation so that requires the gop to win at least 54% of the popular vote to break even in oregon , and 54.5% to win Oregon so they need more like a Clinton 1996 margin or maybe even a Reagan 1980 to win Oregon
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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,777


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

« Reply #1 on: May 30, 2016, 02:23:48 AM »

Bush came within 1% in 2000, though Nader played a role with that finish.

In 2004, Bush came within 5%, securing 866,000 votes (just 100,000 less than Obama's vote total here in 2012).

These numbers indicate some possibility of Oregon's becoming competitive in the future. It can flip in 2008-esque year in the GOP's favor.

Oregon is 8 percent more democratic then the nation so that requires the gop to win at least 54% of the popular vote to break even in oregon , and 54.5% to win Oregon so they need more like a Clinton 1996 margin or maybe even a Reagan 1980 to win Oregon

Jill Stein could be a trouble maker of Hillary in Oregon for sure.
(she already got 1.1% in OR(2012)

Considering Unfavorable rating of Hillary.

It is quite possible she gonna gnaw votes of White Liberals in Oregon Smiley

Imagine What If She gets 5%+ in Oregon this year = TRUMP wins Oregon for sure.




5 + would make it +3 Hillary if the national margin is tied, swinging it to trump would likely then require +3.5 trump
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