Oregon could be a swing state in 2016.
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 08:27:30 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  Oregon could be a swing state in 2016.
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 [3]
Author Topic: Oregon could be a swing state in 2016.  (Read 8070 times)
Fusionmunster
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,483


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #50 on: May 29, 2016, 01:59:07 PM »

Its gonna be a long 5+ month till November, I'm glad you guys are getting so excited though.
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,576
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #51 on: May 29, 2016, 03:22:58 PM »

Ok, we shouldn't take the early polls too serious, but it clearly shows TRUMP's appeal. All the (media) talk that he gets defeated in a landslide is nonsense.We could really end up with something like this:



302 - 236

Btw, TRUMP could afford to lose either Virginia or Florida

Add Nevada to Trump.

Not sure yet because of the latino population. But Nevada is more likely to switch than Iowa.
Logged
#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,027
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #52 on: May 29, 2016, 03:25:16 PM »

OREGON. IS. NOT. GOING. TO. VOTE. FOR. TRUMP.
Logged
LLR
LongLiveRock
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,956


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #53 on: May 29, 2016, 05:38:36 PM »

Bush came within 1% in 2000, though Nader played a role with that finish.

In 2004, Bush came within 5%, securing 866,000 votes (just 100,000 less than Obama's vote total here in 2012).

These numbers indicate some possibility of Oregon's becoming competitive in the future. It can flip in 2008-esque year in the GOP's favor.

False.
Logged
Bojack Horseman
Wolverine22
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,368
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #54 on: May 29, 2016, 07:22:16 PM »

Yeah and Texas will go for Hillary too! /sarcasm
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #55 on: May 29, 2016, 07:26:54 PM »

OREGON. IS. NOT. GOING. TO. VOTE. FOR. TRUMP.

I rarely quote our friend here. But one random and clearly f***ed poll is not indicative of anything.
Logged
ProudModerate2
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,351
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #56 on: May 29, 2016, 07:48:50 PM »

Ok, we shouldn't take the early polls too serious, but it clearly shows TRUMP's appeal. All the (media) talk that he gets defeated in a landslide is nonsense.We could really end up with something like this:



302 - 236

Btw, TRUMP could afford to lose either Virginia or Florida

Add Nevada to Trump.

Not sure yet because of the latino population. But Nevada is more likely to switch than Iowa.

Sometimes I really wonder if trump supporters are serious when they produce a map like this, or are they just trolling. This map is insane (for lack of "better word").
Logged
heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,233
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #57 on: May 29, 2016, 09:35:59 PM »

"Trump is swinging his dick in the face of entitled liberals. I don't care what he does as president. I just want to make him liberals cry for 8 years. Make them cry. Make them suffer, Mr. Trump. We have been silenced for way too long. We are not going to take it anymore."

Confirms what I already thought. Trump voters are people who have an ax to grind -- it's not about Trump's policies -- it's about sticking it to those liberals, women, Mexicans, Muslims, or all of the above.
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,417
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #58 on: May 29, 2016, 10:25:10 PM »

OREGON. IS. NOT. GOING. TO. VOTE. FOR. TRUMP.
Logged
StatesPoll
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 441
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #59 on: May 30, 2016, 01:13:14 AM »

Ok, we shouldn't take the early polls too serious, but it clearly shows TRUMP's appeal. All the (media) talk that he gets defeated in a landslide is nonsense.We could really end up with something like this:



302 - 236

Btw, TRUMP could afford to lose either Virginia or Florida

Nice Map. Btw Why Iowa is for Hillary?

I think TRUMP has a decent chance in there. Because at least, he is a christian.
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/IA/president/
White Evan voters share in Iowa, still 38%ish.
Mormon Romney only got 64% of Evangelicals (Obama 35%)

Iowa it was Obama 52 - Romney 46
if Romney got 80% of White Evan / Obama got 19% of White Evan
Romney could add 6% (=38% x 16%), Obama could lose 6% (=38%x16%)

It could be Romney 52% - Obama 46%

Evangelicals: TRUMP 81%, Hillary 19% (OANN/Gravis(National Poll) 5/10)
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/732033604709191680


Logged
StatesPoll
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 441
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #60 on: May 30, 2016, 01:24:17 AM »

Ok, we shouldn't take the early polls too serious, but it clearly shows TRUMP's appeal. All the (media) talk that he gets defeated in a landslide is nonsense.We could really end up with something like this:



302 - 236

Btw, TRUMP could afford to lose either Virginia or Florida

Add Nevada to Trump.

Not sure yet because of the latino population. But Nevada is more likely to switch than Iowa.

TRUMP has a big hotel in Nevada. He employs many Latino in there too.
If He gets 30%ish of Latino in NV (little bit worse than GOP's latino support in FL/TX)

He can win.

Racial Demographics in NV(CNN exit Poll 2012)
White 64% | Latino 19% |  Black 9% | Asian 5% | Other(Mostly Native American) 4%
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/NV/president/

Considering Gary Johnson and Jill Stein. 48% would be enough number to win NV

White 64% x 59% + Latino 19% x 30% + Black 9% x 10% + Asian 5% x 45% +
Other 4% x 45% = 48.41% = Win




Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #61 on: May 30, 2016, 01:36:38 AM »

Ok, we shouldn't take the early polls too serious, but it clearly shows TRUMP's appeal. All the (media) talk that he gets defeated in a landslide is nonsense.We could really end up with something like this:



302 - 236

Btw, TRUMP could afford to lose either Virginia or Florida

Add Nevada to Trump.

Not sure yet because of the latino population. But Nevada is more likely to switch than Iowa.

TRUMP has a big hotel in Nevada. He employs many Latino in there too.
If He gets 30%ish of Latino in NV (little bit worse than GOP's latino support in FL/TX)

He can win.

Racial Demographics in NV(CNN exit Poll 2012)
White 64% | Latino 19% |  Black 9% | Asian 5% | Other(Mostly Native American) 4%
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/NV/president/

Considering Gary Johnson and Jill Stein. 48% would be enough number to win NV

White 64% x 59% + Latino 19% x 30% + Black 9% x 10% + Asian 5% x 45% +
Other 4% x 45% = 48.41% = Win






Well, thanks for letting us know you're just trolling.
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,348


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #62 on: May 30, 2016, 01:51:23 AM »

Bush came within 1% in 2000, though Nader played a role with that finish.

In 2004, Bush came within 5%, securing 866,000 votes (just 100,000 less than Obama's vote total here in 2012).

These numbers indicate some possibility of Oregon's becoming competitive in the future. It can flip in 2008-esque year in the GOP's favor.

Oregon is 8 percent more democratic then the nation so that requires the gop to win at least 54% of the popular vote to break even in oregon , and 54.5% to win Oregon so they need more like a Clinton 1996 margin or maybe even a Reagan 1980 to win Oregon
Logged
StatesPoll
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 441
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #63 on: May 30, 2016, 02:16:40 AM »

Bush came within 1% in 2000, though Nader played a role with that finish.

In 2004, Bush came within 5%, securing 866,000 votes (just 100,000 less than Obama's vote total here in 2012).

These numbers indicate some possibility of Oregon's becoming competitive in the future. It can flip in 2008-esque year in the GOP's favor.

Oregon is 8 percent more democratic then the nation so that requires the gop to win at least 54% of the popular vote to break even in oregon , and 54.5% to win Oregon so they need more like a Clinton 1996 margin or maybe even a Reagan 1980 to win Oregon

Jill Stein could be a trouble maker of Hillary in Oregon for sure.
(she already got 1.1% in OR(2012)

Considering Unfavorable rating of Hillary.

It is quite possible she gonna gnaw votes of White Liberals in Oregon Smiley

Imagine What If She gets 5%+ in Oregon this year = TRUMP wins Oregon for sure.


Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,348


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #64 on: May 30, 2016, 02:23:48 AM »

Bush came within 1% in 2000, though Nader played a role with that finish.

In 2004, Bush came within 5%, securing 866,000 votes (just 100,000 less than Obama's vote total here in 2012).

These numbers indicate some possibility of Oregon's becoming competitive in the future. It can flip in 2008-esque year in the GOP's favor.

Oregon is 8 percent more democratic then the nation so that requires the gop to win at least 54% of the popular vote to break even in oregon , and 54.5% to win Oregon so they need more like a Clinton 1996 margin or maybe even a Reagan 1980 to win Oregon

Jill Stein could be a trouble maker of Hillary in Oregon for sure.
(she already got 1.1% in OR(2012)

Considering Unfavorable rating of Hillary.

It is quite possible she gonna gnaw votes of White Liberals in Oregon Smiley

Imagine What If She gets 5%+ in Oregon this year = TRUMP wins Oregon for sure.




5 + would make it +3 Hillary if the national margin is tied, swinging it to trump would likely then require +3.5 trump
Logged
Hammy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,711
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #65 on: May 30, 2016, 04:07:10 AM »

Isn't the poll that showed Trump leading here from a birther conspiracy theory site?
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,454
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #66 on: May 30, 2016, 08:35:10 AM »

Logged
🦀🎂🦀🎂
CrabCake
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,190
Kiribati


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #67 on: May 30, 2016, 12:32:51 PM »

This is a special interest forum so I'm pretty sure (if nothing else) most people can recognise this for what it is. Let's not play dumb: we know that we don't have to humour this idiot.
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,612
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #68 on: May 30, 2016, 12:41:44 PM »

McCain was beating Obama in Washington state this time 8 years ago.
How did that turn out?
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,417
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #69 on: May 30, 2016, 01:18:53 PM »


Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Do you realize that posts like these say nothing at all? You look unintelligent, and it makes discussions on this website appear worthless.

 If you think that the notion of Trump's winning Oregon is blasphemous, then offer an intelligent explanation, pointing at (for examples) demographics, trends, polls, and past performances in the state.

I could easily say, "OREGON. MIGHT. VOTE. FOR. TRUMP."; and that claim would be just as credible as your post, as you offer no explanation. Anyone can state something, but few people can argue for it.

The inherent political math makes it extremely difficult for a Republican to win statewide, at least with the types of candidates the party has been offering over the past few decades.

Basically in order to have a competitive statewide election a Republican candidate needs to accomplish three things:

1.) Keep down the margins from Liberal Democratic strongholds (Multnomah, Lane, and Benton counties).
2.) Perform extremely well in the Portland suburbs (Washington and Clackamas) and the Mid-Valley as well as flipping Marion County (Salem) and essentially tie or have a net plurality.
3.) Drive Democratic numbers to the floor in Southern and Eastern Oregon to maximize the vote margins and offset #1.

So for example Multnomah County alone provides a raw Democratic vote margin of 100k (2000) to 200k (2008 and 2016) votes and Lane County 15k (2000)-50k. (2008) for a low margin of 115k (2000) and a high of 250k (2008) that all need to be made up from regions #2 and #3.

What conditions would it take?

1.) Low turnout and large 3rd party vote from Sanders supporters in heavily Democratic areas of Multnomah, Lane, and Benton County where Nader got 6-7% in 2000 to keep down the margins to a more manageable 115k D margin.

2.) Running the table in what should be Trump's best regions of the state (Southern and Eastern Oregon) where his economic populist message should play significantly better than McCain '08 and Romney '12 and win most counties by roughly 70-30 margins and essentially garner an Obama > Trump swing and do closer to 2000 and 2004 Republican %. I do foresee some problems with his messaging in Deschutes and Jackson counties where there is frequently larger swings among higher-income socially-liberal and fiscally conservative type voters, although I can see Trump making some inroads into parts of Lane County that are more similar to Southern Oregon.

3.) Flipping the Portland suburbs and Mid-Valley region to make up the difference between Democratic margins in #1 and Republican margins in #2. This will be an extreme challenge. Although I can certainly see a Post-Obama Republican flip Clackamas and Marion counties, the reality is that in order to win statewide a Republican will need to perform extremely well in Washington County, which has been trending increasingly Democratic over the past few decades and is also becoming one of the more diverse counties in the state with a significant and growing population of Latino and Asian-American voters that find Trump's immigration rhetoric and language deeply disturbing. In addition, many of the higher income swing voters work in the Tech Industry (Intel) and for Nike, and are much less receptive to Trump's economic protectionist message.

Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,417
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #70 on: May 30, 2016, 03:27:57 PM »

So, effectively for Trump to create a potentially winning statewide coalition in Oregon he would need to replicate something akin to the 2008 Senate race where incumbent Republican Senator Gordon Smith lost by 3.5% with 5% going to a Constitutional Party despite keeping the Democrat challenger Merkley to under 50% in 31/36 counties and under 70% in Multnomah County.

If we were to add the Republican's numbers to the Constitutional Party numbers , it would take something like a 55-45 Republican win in Clackamas, 51-49 win in Washington, a 59-41 win in Marion county along with an outstanding performance in Southern/Central/Eastern Oregon/Oregon Coast.

Another reference point of what a winning statewide Republican coalition could look like in Oregon, would be the 2010 Gubernatorial election where Democratic former governor Kitzhaber narrowly won 49-48 or 20k votes with 40k going to Libertarian/Constitutional Party candidates.

Again, there is a similar pattern.... Multnomah was 71% Dem, with Clackamas and Marion only 44% Dem, Washington  50-48 Dem, with an outstanding Republican performance in Southern and Eastern Oregon, but the Democrat still won statewide by 20k votes.

So unless Trump can somehow replicate a traditional "upstate-downstate" competitive map where politics were effectively more localized than nationalized, by keeping down Democratic margins in Liberal Dem strongholds, dominating Southern and Eastern Oregon, AND winning in the Portland suburbs and Mid-Valley, including large margins in Clackamas and Marion counties and small margins in Washington Co. it is hard to see how this will be anything close to a swing state in 2016.


Logged
Pages: 1 2 [3]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.07 seconds with 12 queries.