Romney third party scenario

[jman123]

What would be the effects of a Mitt Romney Third party run this november? any estimates on how he would poll nationally and statewide?

[Krago]

Would he get to 15% to make it onto the debate stage?  I doubt it.

[LLR]

I think he'd get 10% nationally, win UT, ID, and WY, and flip plenty of states to the democrats. Something like this:

Give or take MS, GA, and MO.

[NHI]

Hillary Clinton: 360 (50%)

Donald Trump: 160 (43%)

Mitt Romney: 10 (5%)

[Kingpoleon]

416: Hillary Clinton/Martin Heinrich(43.2%)
108: Donald Trump/Ted Cruz(35.7%)
14: Mitt Romney/Ben Sasse(20.2%)
Others: 0.9%

ND, SD, NE, and KS are all places I very much debated flipping to Romney. Romney has a good appeal to WV, too. I think Romney and Trump running probably maximizes down ballot races turnout for Republicans, though.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Hillary Clinton: 360 (50%)

Donald Trump: 160 (43%)

Mitt Romney: 10 (5%)

I'd have Clinton narrowly winning Montana, but I agree with pretty much everything else. Republicans are generally falling in line behind Trump.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I think he'd get 10% nationally, win UT, ID, and WY, and flip plenty of states to the democrats. Something like this:

Give or take MS, GA, and MO.

Hmm... WY has Mormons, but it also has a bunch of coal miners.  I think Trump would narrowly hold the plurality there.  Also if he picks Martinez and endorses immigration reform, I wonder if they could win parts of the SW or throw them to Trump?

Coal miners in Wyoming are different to Appalachia. In Appalachia the whole community is (was) built around the industry and so it dominates the scene. In Wyoming it's ephemeral workers with much less attachment to the job or even the area.

Romney is an longtime opponent of immigration reform. I doubt many Hispanics would find it very sincere, and it's not really the most important issue for them.

Romney's biggest issue is being seen as a candidate of the National Review/WSJ editorial board.

[Krago]

Ephemeral Coal Miners - what a great band name!