Democratic KY / OR primary results thread (first polls close at 6pm ET)

[Fusionmunster]

@benchmarkpol
"So we think Sanders will win Oregon and Clinton, Kentucky. We think Oregon will be pretty close though. Won't be shocked at all if she wins"

[RI]

So benchmark is saying turnout in Portland is terrible. It might not hold though, people have till the end of the day to turn in there ballots.

I'm not sure how accurate that really is. Through yesterday, 46.8% of eligible Dems had returned their ballots statewide. Multnomah was at 43.9%, which is lower, but not dramatically. That's slightly higher than Clackamas's 43.2% and slightly below Washington County's 44.8%. Plus Multnomah has more than twice as many returned ballots as any other county so far.

On the other hand, Benton County (OSU) was sitting at 55.4% and Lane County (Eugene) was at 50.6%, both of which should be strong Sanders territories. Marion County (Salem), which might be more pro-Clinton, was at 45.2%.

[Holmes]

Yeah, Portland and suburbs are below average compared to the rest of the state, and will probably end up staying below average, but it's not exactly terrible. Unless Clinton really does end up winning the state, then we can say turnout wasn't high enough for Sanders.

[Fusionmunster]

So benchmark is saying turnout in Portland is terrible. It might not hold though, people have till the end of the day to turn in there ballots.

I'm not sure how accurate that really is. Through yesterday, 46.8% of eligible Dems had returned their ballots statewide. Multnomah was at 43.9%, which is lower, but not dramatically. That's slightly higher than Clackamas's 43.2% and slightly below Washington County's 44.8%. Plus Multnomah has more than twice as many returned ballots as any other county so far.

On the other hand, Benton County (OSU) was sitting at 55.4% and Lane County (Eugene) was at 50.6%, both of which should be strong Sanders territories. Marion County (Salem), which might be more pro-Clinton, was at 45.2%.

I think your forgetting how high turnout usually is though. Wasnt it something like 80% in 2008?

[RI]

So benchmark is saying turnout in Portland is terrible. It might not hold though, people have till the end of the day to turn in there ballots.

I'm not sure how accurate that really is. Through yesterday, 46.8% of eligible Dems had returned their ballots statewide. Multnomah was at 43.9%, which is lower, but not dramatically. That's slightly higher than Clackamas's 43.2% and slightly below Washington County's 44.8%. Plus Multnomah has more than twice as many returned ballots as any other county so far.

On the other hand, Benton County (OSU) was sitting at 55.4% and Lane County (Eugene) was at 50.6%, both of which should be strong Sanders territories. Marion County (Salem), which might be more pro-Clinton, was at 45.2%.

I think your forgetting how high turnout usually is though. Wasnt it something like 80% in 2008?

73.8% of registered Dems voted in the 2008 primary. However, the numbers I've cited for 2016 do not include ballots returned today (the single largest day) or ballots arriving after today. In the 2008 primary, total turnout (for both parties) jumped from 42% to 58% just on election day. We're at 36% overall coming into today. A similar jump to 2008 puts overall turnout at about 52%, which is down, but not terrible.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^^ Are any of the ballots received after today counted?

[IceAgeComing]

I was going to post something about how people might not be putting stuff in today because they might have already done it, but I've just seen someone post actual numbers that prove the opposite.  Although I'd imagine that its much harder to judge turnout in a postal vote only election: simply because there isn't that one day when a majority of people go and vote but people sent stuff over a longer period.

What sort of numbers should Sanders get to start to close the gap with Clinton enough to eventually overtake her with pledged delegates?  I tried looking up some numbers but the only ones I could find were pre-North East primary, so obviously very out of date.

^^ Are any of the ballots received after today counted?

The stuff I read said that they had to be received by today at 8pm, so that would suggest that they aren't.  Probably sensible that provided that its easy for people to submit their votes on "polling day" somewhere: means that if it is an incredibly close election you aren't waiting a week until the last postals get delivered before you know the final delegate numbers.

[Ebsy]

^^ Are any of the ballots received after today counted?

No, I don't think so. I believe they do a final pick up at the drop off boxes at or shortly after 8, and that's it.

[RI]

^^ Are any of the ballots received after today counted?

Oregon's more strict than WA, it seems, in that the ballots have to be at the elections office by 8pm, but there are some exceptions, such as military ballots.

[The Other Castro]

Any idea when the first OR results will come in? I'd imagine it'll come in very quickly once it starts.

[Eraserhead]

I really think that Clinton is going to struggle to overcome her huge disadvantages in coal country, which in Kentucky is both in the eastern and western parts of the state, to pull out a win.

Exhibit A:

Wow, I had forgotten that he actually did worse in Kentucky than he did in West Virginia in 2012.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Any idea when the first OR results will come in? I'd imagine it'll come in very quickly once it starts.

About 40% of the vote came in almost immediately in the 2012 GE.

[IceAgeComing]

I assume that they are allowed to start counting votes that they've already received, they just can't tell anyone what they are until 8pm?

I don't know why I'm asking; that's 4am UK time and I'm not that keen to stay up for an election that's already decided...

[YPestis25]

I assume that they are allowed to start counting votes that they've already received, they just can't tell anyone what they are until 8pm?

I don't know why I'm asking; that's 4am UK time and I'm not that keen to stay up for an election that's already decided...

I believe they report the results as they come in, but the networks won't make a projection until all the polls in a state close.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Expect more of that, especially if the old codger continues to give comfort to his hoodlums while they harass local party members.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-05-17/sanders-quest-for-superdelegates-loses-one-after-virgin-island-official-flips-to-clinton

Bernie Sanders is trying to persuade Democratic Party superdelegates backing Hillary Clinton to flip their allegiance as a last-ditch bid for the nomination, but one Sanders supporter is going the other way.

Emmett Hansen II, the Democratic National Committeeman for the U.S. Virgin Islands, decided to shift his support to Clinton after a weekend briefing on her plans for U.S. territories that followed months of dissatisfaction with Sanders’ lack of concrete positions.

His reasons go right to the heart of Clinton's critique of  the Sanders campaign. Hansen said that while he’s a believer in sweeping change, he also wants to get things done.

Hansen is the first Sanders superdelegate to publicly shift his support to Clinton.

[/]

Hillaryous.

[Crumpets]

Hillaryous.

I don'the think she'll lose, but I think she'll hold Sanders to under 60, and there's a good chance it'll be in single digits. The national margin has been tilting against Sanders for a few weeks.

[Sorenroy]

What sort of numbers should Sanders get to start to close the gap with Clinton enough to eventually overtake her with pledged delegates?  I tried looking up some numbers but the only ones I could find were pre-North East primary, so obviously very out of date.

I've been keeping a running spreadsheet with the required percentage of delegates needed to win over here. As of now, to stay on target, Sanders needs to get roughly 66% of the delegates. It's even higher then that if you consider the fact that he needs a buffer to make up for close races or losses in places like New Jersey and California.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

http://demrace.com/?share=PUkKSHJ3

^^ targets I have for Sanders. He needs to get 58% in KY and deny Hillary viability (15%) in Oregon.

[Sorenroy]

http://demrace.com/?share=PUkKSHJ3

^^ targets I have for Sanders. He needs to get 58% in KY and deny Hillary viability (15%) in Oregon.

Well Sanders can just tie every remaining primary and get 80% in California to win as well.

[IceSpear]

Bernie has been losing steam lately.  I think Hillary might win both states.

She's not winning Oregon.

[IceSpear]

I really think that Clinton is going to struggle to overcome her huge disadvantages in coal country, which in Kentucky is both in the eastern and western parts of the state, to pull out a win.

Exhibit A:

Wow, I had forgotten that he actually did worse in Kentucky than he did in West Virginia in 2012.

This is why I changed my prediction from Clinton >50% to Clinton >40%.

Uncommitted is a much better option for protest voters than felons/prison inmates. O'Malley and De La Fuente will be on the ballot as well.

[IceSpear]

Any idea when the first OR results will come in? I'd imagine it'll come in very quickly once it starts.

About 40% of the vote came in almost immediately in the 2012 GE.

Isn't there a huge stall after that though? I know in 2010 the Washington Senate race was stuck at ~50% reporting all night, and we didn't know Murray won until the next day.

I'm not sure if Oregon is the same way, but their systems are very similar, right?

[Holmes]

I wonder if we'll see a comparable outcome of that in SW PA in areas of Kentucky that would probably otherwise be anti-Clinton because it's a closed primary.

[NOVA Green]

She's not winning Oregon.
[/quote]

Yeah----I would be very surprised to see Hillary win in Oregon despite the close numbers suggested by Benchmark Politics and then the poll showing Hillary with a major lead.

That being said, I would not be surprised to see Bernie under-perform Obama's '08 primary numbers since the Iraq war was such a major issue in one of the most Dovish states in the country.

I would look at several counties in Southern Oregon (Douglas and Jackson) and several Mid-Valley counties (Marion and Linn) for early indicators if this race is looking tighter than I think it is, since frequently close Oregon elections have an Upstate-Downstate dynamic where whomever wins Multnomah is offset by a combo of downstate votes combined with close margins in the Portland suburbs of Clackamas in particular and to a lesser extent Washington County.