Turnout in 2006

[CARLHAYDEN]

The big questions in the 2006 elections are what the aggregate turnout rate will be, and who will vote.

I anticipate the turnout (based on VAP) will be somewhere between 33 - 38%.


As to whether the Democrats or the Republicans will benefit from the turnout is another question.

Speculation on both issues invited.

[J. J.]

I would suspect it will be higher, but I would expect those low levels to favor the GOP.

The base is energized!

[CARLHAYDEN]

What seems more significant to me is that while Clinton put a lot of money he raised in 1996 into a relatively sophisticated GOTV effort, which benefited Democrat Congressional candidates in 1998 and Gore in 2000, that effort (as a party matter) was basically abandoned since 2001, with disasterous results in 2002.

While Soros and associates tried (with some measure of sucess) to do this for the Democrats in 2004, the Republicans had learned the lesson of 1998 and 2000 and spent the time and money to develope a sophisticated GOTV effort for 2002 and 2004 which paid considerable dividends.

There is no only considerable cost in developing and maintaining this effort, but a great deal of time in developing such an effort (a truly effective effort has a lead time of about 18 months).

From what I hear, the Republicans are continuing to pour time and money into this efforts, while the Democrats are ignoring it.

I suspect, absent some overarching issue in 2006 (such as illegal immigration), the matter of turnout will be decisive in that year's election.