DRA stuff

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The blue seat is D+3 and 51.6 W/41.1 B. The green, purple, and red seats are between 52 and 53% McCain and 51 and 52% Dem. The yellow seat is solidly D obviously. All the other seats are at least R+15.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Red district scares me, to say the least.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My effort at 5 D seats. The blue seat is 46.9 W/46.1 B, 61.3 O/38.1 McC, 57.7 D/42.3 R. The green seat is 62.3 W/31.6 B, 49.9 O/49.2 McC, 51.2 D/48.8 R. The purple seat is 47.2 O/51.5 McC, 53.8 D/46.2 R. The red seat is 47.5 O/51.2 McC, 51.5 D/48.5 R. The yellow seat 46.6 O/51.7 McC, 52.4 D/47.6 R.
The teal seat, in contrast, is 33.3 O/65.5 McC, 38.5 D/61.5 R. The rest of the state, equal to 3 CDs, is 30.1 O/68.4 McC, 37.3 D/62.7 R.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Red district scares me, to say the least.

MWHAHAHA!!!
That is a pretty effective D pack. It could certainly vote for a Democrat. And one nifty thing of course is that its urban areas insulate it from the R trend downballot in rural TN. (Though the second 5-4 map beats it in that regard).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

District 1 (blue): This district takes in the southern portions of the Washington, DC metropolitan area, and runs up to the Chesapeake Bay. Rob Wittman (R-Manassas) was drawn into the 11th, but would run here as it has the vast portion of his current territory. 47.6% Obama, 51.6% McCain; 43.7% Dem, 56.3% Rep.
District 2 (green): This seat becomes more compact, losing its areas on the west side of the Chesapeake Bay and gaining all of Norfolk. J. Randy Forbes (R-Chesapeake) would run here, despite the Democratic lean, because the neighboring 4th is D+9. The seat is 26% Black. 55.6% Obama, 43.6% McCain; 51.4% Dem, 48.6% Rep.
District 3 (purple): This district moves north and becomes less black, gaining heavily white areas along the bay. It still has a Democratic lean, and would still likely elect a black Democrat, given the black VAP is 35.1%. 60.8% Obama, 38.5% McCain; 55.3% Dem, 44.7% Rep.
District 4 (red): This seat has a cluster of Democratic Tidewater counties, and is the only seat on the map that is technically a majority-minority district. 49.5% White, 43.8% Black; 61.5% Obama, 37.8% McCain; 56.8% Dem, 43.2% Rep.
District 5 (gold): This district doesn't change much, except for it moving slightly to the east. It is slightly more Democratic, becoming R+4. It is still a solid hold for Robert Hurt (R-Chatham). 48.9% Obama, 50.1% McCain; 46.7% Dem, 53.3% Rep.
District 6 (teal): This district moves slightly to the south and slightly to the right, and remains solidly Republican. Bob Goodlatte (R-Roanoke) can rest easy. 41% Obama, 58% McCain; 39.9% Dem, 60.1% Rep.
District 7 (gray): This seat hugs the 3rd, and soaks up a lot of blood red suburbia. Dave Brat (R-Glen Allen) would have right to first refusal here. 42% Obama, 57.3% McCain; 38.8% Dem, 61.1% Rep.
District 8 (slate blue): This seat takes in the most dense areas in the DC metro within Virginia. It is easily the smallest seat in the map by area, thus the most urban, and therefore the most Democratic. Donald Beyer (D-Alexandria) would have this seat to himself. 67.4% Obama, 31.8% McCain; 63.7% Dem, 36.3% Rep.
District 9 (cyan): This district is reconfigured to split no counties. It doesn't change much overall, though. Morgan Griffith (R-Salem) is drawn out, but he would almost certainly move here. 40% Obama, 58.6% McCain; 43,3% Dem, 56.7% Rep.
District 10 (pink): Barbara Comstock (R-McLean) sees her district switch from R+2 to D+2, and pull out of Prince William County, in turn picking up some heavily Democratic suburbs of Washington, DC. She could easily go down in a Democratic wave. 55.2% Obama, 44% McCain; 50% Dem, 50% Rep.
District 11 (chartreuse): Incumbent Gerry Connolly (D-Mantua) would run here, even though he doesn't live here. The seat is weakened, but remains solidly Democratic. 59.5% Obama, 39.8% McCain; 52.7% Dem, 47.3% Rep.

[muon2]

My effort at 5 D seats. The blue seat is 46.9 W/46.1 B, 61.3 O/38.1 McC, 57.7 D/42.3 R. The green seat is 62.3 W/31.6 B, 49.9 O/49.2 McC, 51.2 D/48.8 R. The purple seat is 47.2 O/51.5 McC, 53.8 D/46.2 R. The red seat is 47.5 O/51.2 McC, 51.5 D/48.5 R. The yellow seat 46.6 O/51.7 McC, 52.4 D/47.6 R.
The teal seat, in contrast, is 33.3 O/65.5 McC, 38.5 D/61.5 R. The rest of the state, equal to 3 CDs, is 30.1 O/68.4 McC, 37.3 D/62.7 R.

You are relying on state-oriented Dems voting D for Congress, too. That's been getting harder in southern states over the last few cycles. The rough PVI's for your 5 D districts are D+8, R+3, R+6, R+6, R+6. Three of those seats would be considered pretty safe for Pubs barring a wave year for the Dems. The R+3 would be lean to likely R depending on the candidates.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My effort at 5 D seats. The blue seat is 46.9 W/46.1 B, 61.3 O/38.1 McC, 57.7 D/42.3 R. The green seat is 62.3 W/31.6 B, 49.9 O/49.2 McC, 51.2 D/48.8 R. The purple seat is 47.2 O/51.5 McC, 53.8 D/46.2 R. The red seat is 47.5 O/51.2 McC, 51.5 D/48.5 R. The yellow seat 46.6 O/51.7 McC, 52.4 D/47.6 R.
The teal seat, in contrast, is 33.3 O/65.5 McC, 38.5 D/61.5 R. The rest of the state, equal to 3 CDs, is 30.1 O/68.4 McC, 37.3 D/62.7 R.

You are relying on state-oriented Dems voting D for Congress, too. That's been getting harder in southern states over the last few cycles. The rough PVI's for your 5 D districts are D+8, R+3, R+6, R+6, R+6. Three of those seats would be considered pretty safe for Pubs barring a wave year for the Dems. The R+3 would be lean to likely R depending on the candidates.

Yes, I know how hard it is getting 5 Ds in TN. Incumbency matters. Marsha Blackburn could make the green seat, the best chance for Ds, favored to be held by the GOP. Cooper would probably run in the purple seat,and given his Blue Dog voting tendencies, could perhaps make it a race. Compared to the 2003-2013 map, several seats drawn to the represented by Ds improve by at least 3 points, some by double digits. Of course I could be wrong, but those improvements ought to have some effect in the least.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My non-partisan map of Ohio.
District 1 (blue): This seat shifts heavily to the left. Steve Chabot's district moves 8 points to left. Driehaus could easily mount  comeback here. D+2
District 2 (green): Eastern Cincinnati suburbs paired with some heavily Republican rural areas to the east. Brad Wenstrup (R-Cincinnati) would likely run and win here, but Chabot could run here as well. (R+19)
District 3 (purple): This district has parts of the heavily Democratic downtown core of Columbus along with some suburbs to the west and east. Joyce Beatty (D-Columbus) would naturally run here. D+12.
District 4 (red): Parts of Northwest and North-central Ohio along with some rural areas around Lima, which are stomping grounds of Jim Jordan (R-Lima). This seat would be his. R+14.
District 5 (yellow): This district contains the entirety of the Toledo MSA, along with a small part of Senec County added for population purposes. This seat has two incumbents, Bob Latta (R-Bowling Green), and Marcy Kaptur (R-Toledo). Kaptur would easily win. D+7.
District 6 (teal): This seat is composed of rural Southeastern Ohio, and goes north to preserve its rural character and stay out of the Columbus MSA. Bill Johnson (R-Marietta) gets about one point of added security, and his seat becomes R+6.
District 7 (black): This district has the entirety of the Canton–Massillon MSA, which has more than half of the district's population. It becomes more Democratic due to shifting southeast. R+3.
District 8 (slate blue): This seat takes in some suburbs of Dayton and Columbus, and some turf to the north. R+15.
District 9 (cyan): This district takes in the coastal counties of Erie and Lorain, but becomes Republican-leaning due to it gaining Medina and Wayne. Bob Gibbs (R-Avon) lives here and would likely run here, though Jim Renacci (R-Cleveland) could mount a bid for this seat too. R+2.
District 10 (pink): This seat retains its character as a Dayton-centered seat, though its center of gravity moves north. It is still safe for Mike Turner (R-Dayton). R+1.
District 11 (chartreuse): This is the sole VRA seat on the map. It is 47.8% White, 43% Black. Marcia Fudge (D-Cleveland) would obviously run here. D+28.
District 12 (cornflower blue): This district takes up the northern parts of the Columbus MSA. It would easily reelect Pat Tiberi (R-Columbus) again and again. R+10.
District 13 (dark salmon): This seat includes heavily blue-collar Mahoning and Trumbull counties, but also upscale Republican areas in Ashtabula, Gaugea, and Lake counties, minimizing its D lean. Tim Ryan (D-Akron) would run either here or in the 16th; he would be fine in either district. D+3.
District 14 (firebrick): This district envelopes the 11th, and lies mostly within Cuyahoga county. David Joyce (R-Columbia Heights), who was drawn into the 11th, could mount a bid for the seat, but would be at a definite disadvantage in this suburban Cleveland congressional district. D+2.
District 15 (dark orange): This seat has the southern parts of the Columbus MSA, and two-fifths of the area of Franklin County itself. Steve Stivers (R-Columbus) would be comfortable here. R+7.
District 16 (navajo white): This seat is essentially the entire Akron MSA with the addition of a small part of Cuyahoga for population purposes. Tim Ryan (D-Akron) would be right at home in this district. D+3.

[muon2]

It looks like you split up the black areas of Columbus. You can get 25-29% BVAP in a Franklin CD. That counts as an influence district to them.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It looks like you split up the black areas of Columbus. You can get 25-29% BVAP in a Franklin CD. That counts as an influence district to them.

I didn't consider the possibility. I guess I could have done something similar to RL CD-3.
I drew the lines in Franklin County without respect to ethnicity and with erosity as first.
What would a CD optomized for blacks look like? (without shifting voters in any other counties in any way)

[muon2]

It looks like you split up the black areas of Columbus. You can get 25-29% BVAP in a Franklin CD. That counts as an influence district to them.

I didn't consider the possibility. I guess I could have done something similar to RL CD-3.
I drew the lines in Franklin County without respect to ethnicity and with erosity as first.
What would a CD optomized for blacks look like? (without shifting voters in any other counties in any way)

The first OH congressional map in 2011 passed with a simple partisan majority. That made it vulerable to a popular referendum. To avoid that the pubs reached a compromise with the OH Legislative Black Caucus to improve BVAP in Columbus. The result is OH-3. It's very erose, but has a 29% BVAP.



This has the same BVAP, but without the erosity. Some of the erosity here is due to municipal lines.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It looks like you split up the black areas of Columbus. You can get 25-29% BVAP in a Franklin CD. That counts as an influence district to them.

I didn't consider the possibility. I guess I could have done something similar to RL CD-3.
I drew the lines in Franklin County without respect to ethnicity and with erosity as first.
What would a CD optomized for blacks look like? (without shifting voters in any other counties in any way)

The first OH congressional map in 2011 passed with a simple partisan majority. That made it vulerable to a popular referendum. To avoid that the pubs reached a compromise with the OH Legislative Black Caucus to improve BVAP in Columbus. The result is OH-3. It's very erose, but has a 29% BVAP.



This has the same BVAP, but without the erosity. Some of the erosity here is due to municipal lines.

Interesting. What would the PVIs be for these and the other two Columbus seats, if these shifts within Franklin County took place?

[muon2]

It looks like you split up the black areas of Columbus. You can get 25-29% BVAP in a Franklin CD. That counts as an influence district to them.

I didn't consider the possibility. I guess I could have done something similar to RL CD-3.
I drew the lines in Franklin County without respect to ethnicity and with erosity as first.
What would a CD optomized for blacks look like? (without shifting voters in any other counties in any way)

The first OH congressional map in 2011 passed with a simple partisan majority. That made it vulerable to a popular referendum. To avoid that the pubs reached a compromise with the OH Legislative Black Caucus to improve BVAP in Columbus. The result is OH-3. It's very erose, but has a 29% BVAP.



This has the same BVAP, but without the erosity. Some of the erosity here is due to municipal lines.

Interesting. What would the PVIs be for these and the other two Columbus seats, if these shifts within Franklin County took place?

The purple CD above was 65.3-33.5 for 2008 Pres. That's a D+12 (65.3%/(.653+.335) - 53.7%). The 53.7% is the Obama 2-party vote in 2008, and it's the baseline for a PVI using only data from that election.

When you say the other two seats, why assume two. A CD with the remainder of Franklin plus Delaware, Union, and Madison is only about 10 K short of a CD and very compact. By my rules, if a county must be chopped the smaller piece(s) should add up to less than 5%. That's 36 K or less for OH CDs. Franklin of course will be larger, but there shouldn't be many large chops (we call them macrochops).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It looks like you split up the black areas of Columbus. You can get 25-29% BVAP in a Franklin CD. That counts as an influence district to them.

I didn't consider the possibility. I guess I could have done something similar to RL CD-3.
I drew the lines in Franklin County without respect to ethnicity and with erosity as first.
What would a CD optomized for blacks look like? (without shifting voters in any other counties in any way)

The first OH congressional map in 2011 passed with a simple partisan majority. That made it vulerable to a popular referendum. To avoid that the pubs reached a compromise with the OH Legislative Black Caucus to improve BVAP in Columbus. The result is OH-3. It's very erose, but has a 29% BVAP.



This has the same BVAP, but without the erosity. Some of the erosity here is due to municipal lines.

Interesting. What would the PVIs be for these and the other two Columbus seats, if these shifts within Franklin County took place?

The purple CD above was 65.3-33.5 for 2008 Pres. That's a D+12 (65.3%/(.653+.335) - 53.7%). The 53.7% is the Obama 2-party vote in 2008, and it's the baseline for a PVI using only data from that election.

When you say the other two seats, why assume two. A CD with the remainder of Franklin plus Delaware, Union, and Madison is only about 10 K short of a CD and very compact. By my rules, if a county must be chopped the smaller piece(s) should add up to less than 5%. That's 36 K or less for OH CDs. Franklin of course will be larger, but there shouldn't be many large chops (we call them macrochops).

I was using that language because I wanted to see what the effect would be if you redid the Columbus MSA seats shifting only voters in Franklin County via redoing OH-3 to have more blacks. A control experiment, if you will. If you have some other maps to show me though, I'll be happy to see them.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

1 (blue): D+13
2 (teal): R+2
3 (white): R+3
4 (red): D+5
5 (gold): R+18
6 (green): D+4
7 (purple): D+7

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

1 (blue): D+22
2 (red): R+4
3 (gold): R+7
4 (purple): R+4
5 (teal): R+7
6 (green): R+4
7 (white): D+10

[muon2]

Are the CO PVI's now using the formula I gave you?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Are the CO PVI's now using the formula I gave you?

No. Sorry.
Of course, I do have the underlying files all saved for your interest, and I will try to use that formula when I can get myself to going forward.
The formula used for calculation of those PVIs is basically the Obama percentage in that district-52.9.

[muon2]

Are the CO PVI's now using the formula I gave you?

No. Sorry.
Of course, I do have the underlying files all saved for your interest, and I will try to use that formula when I can get myself to going forward.

If you can't use the formula, don't write down D+/R+ since the reader assumes it means the PVI. Write the popular vote percentages instead. That makes it clear to everyone and they can calculate the PVI for themselves from the percentages.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Are the CO PVI's now using the formula I gave you?

No. Sorry.
Of course, I do have the underlying files all saved for your interest, and I will try to use that formula when I can get myself to going forward.

If you can't use the formula, don't write down D+/R+ since the reader assumes it means the PVI. Write the popular vote percentages instead. That makes it clear to everyone and they can calculate the PVI for themselves from the percentages.

Okay, I will do that instead.
For the record, in that D gerrymander of CO, the teal seat is 50.5 Obama, and the white one is 50.4 Obama.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Non-partisan Florida w/no VRA
(DRA uses two-party vote for FL, hence I am using it here)
1 (blue, Pensacola): R+21
2 (green): R+6
3 (gold): R+7
4 (red): R+20
5 (purple): R+4
6 (teal): R+3
7 (gray): R+2
8 (light yellow): R+9
9 (cyan): 44% White, 38.7% Hispanic, 11.4% Black, D+7
10 (slate blue): R+1
11 (pink): R+10
12 (blue, near Tampa): R+5
13 (green, Clearwater): D+3
14 (tan, Tampa): D+6
15 (olive): R+8
16 (dark orange): R+5
17 (lime, Everglades): R+8
18 (green, Palm Beach): R+1 (53.1% Obama)
19 (dark slate blue): R+10
20 (pink): D+11
21 (maroon): D+7
22 (sienna): 46.6% White, 31.4% Black, 17.5% Hispanic, D+18
23 (black): 42.6% White, 20.1% Black, 31.6% Hispanic, D+13
24 (white): 12.1% White, 21.9% Black, 63.9% Hispanic, D+9
25 (pale violet red): 16.7% White, 76.5% Hispanic, R+9
26 (indigo): 41.7% White, 10.8% Black, 44.7% Hispanic, R+2
27 (gray, central Miami-Dade): 17.1% White, 21.5% Black, 59.1% Hispanic, D+13

[muon2]

Are the CO PVI's now using the formula I gave you?

No. Sorry.
Of course, I do have the underlying files all saved for your interest, and I will try to use that formula when I can get myself to going forward.

If you can't use the formula, don't write down D+/R+ since the reader assumes it means the PVI. Write the popular vote percentages instead. That makes it clear to everyone and they can calculate the PVI for themselves from the percentages.

Okay, I will do that instead.
For the record, in that D gerrymander of CO, the teal seat is 50.5 Obama, and the white one is 50.4 Obama.

Thanks, and include both percentages as well. There's a big difference in a district that was 50.5-49.5 and one that was 50.5-47.5 (2% other). That's why the formula adjusts for the two party vote first, then compares to the national 2-party percentage (53.7% in 2008).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Are the CO PVI's now using the formula I gave you?

No. Sorry.
Of course, I do have the underlying files all saved for your interest, and I will try to use that formula when I can get myself to going forward.

If you can't use the formula, don't write down D+/R+ since the reader assumes it means the PVI. Write the popular vote percentages instead. That makes it clear to everyone and they can calculate the PVI for themselves from the percentages.

Okay, I will do that instead.
For the record, in that D gerrymander of CO, the teal seat is 50.5 Obama, and the white one is 50.4 Obama.

Thanks, and include both percentages as well. There's a big difference in a district that was 50.5-49.5 and one that was 50.5-47.5 (2% other). That's why the formula adjusts for the two party vote first, then compares to the national 2-party percentage (53.7% in 2008).

Looks like it will be super-easy using the formula for FL PVIs, since DRA uses two-party vote for the Sunshine State.
Your welcome.

[/]

Democratic gerrymander of Alabama with two CDs:

    

CD1 (Yellow) in 2012 - McCain 71.7%; Obama 27.5%
CD1 (Yellow) Average Electorate - Republican 65.3%; Democratic 34.7%

CD2 (Green) in 2008 - McCain 50.0%; Obama 49.3%
CD2 (Green) Average Electorate - Democratic 53.1%; Republican 46.9%

By the way, I know nothing whatsoever about actual redistricting strategies; I'm just playing around

[/]

McCain (yellow) and Obama (green) each win their districts with exactly 57.3%. The only county split is Mecklenburg.