PPP - National horse race: Clinton +4

[pbrower2a]

Something to remember:

Mondale 1984    40.56
Carter 1980 41.01 
McGovern 1972  37.52
Goldwater 1964 38.47
Stevenson 1956 41.97
Landon 1936  36.54
Hoover 1932 39.65

These are the some of the weakest performances in Presidential campaigns in two-way races in the last 90 years. (Really, Carter barely fits this category because John Anderson got 6.61% of the popular vote). These involve two failed Presidencies and wildly-successful bids for re-election by an incumbent. 

We should remember that any poll that shows Donald Trump at 37% or so puts him at a historic low for a Presidential nominee, near the absolute floor for the Presidency in one of the two-way races.

But there is no incumbent running. Fine. Should the 2016 election remain a two-way race with no significant third-party contender, then this suggests the bare minimum for Donald Trump:

GHW Bush 53.37  Dukakis 45.65

....Anyone who believes that Donald Trump will get less than 45% of the vote in a two-way race fails to recognize the optimum in an open-seat election when the incumbent is seen as highly successful but that the usual partisan fatigue is setting in.  Is Barack Obama as effective a President as Ronald Reagan was? Probably not.