....Anyone who believes that Donald Trump will get less than 45% of the vote in a two-way race fails to recognize the optimum in an open-seat election when the incumbent is seen as highly successful but that the usual partisan fatigue is setting in. Is Barack Obama as effective a President as Ronald Reagan was? Probably not.
Right, but I think you are oversimplifying this. Trump is an extraordinarily weak and vulnerable candidate and comparing this to completely different historical scenarios is not that accurate. The only major factors this election has in common with 1988 is that 1) A party is seeking a 3rd term and 2) The election is taking place during a time where party preferences are shifting one way
(1988 was a rightwards shift and 2016 is now in a leftwards shift)I'm not saying Trump will lose in a landslide, but rather that you are narrowly focused on historical parallels and ignoring the major issues with Trump. If Hillary didn't have her own baggage, this could easily be a landslide.
