PPP - National horse race: Clinton +4
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  PPP - National horse race: Clinton +4
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Author Topic: PPP - National horse race: Clinton +4  (Read 5149 times)
Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #25 on: May 09, 2016, 10:56:43 PM »

Any poll showing both candidates below 45% is ridiculous, but of course the Trump fetishists will pounce on this.

No, it really isn't.   You have two candidates with high negatives six months out from the election.  A large number of people unwilling to commit to either candidate is exactly what you'd expect.

Then why do the vast majority of polls have Hillary polling between 46% and 54%? 42% is absurd.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #26 on: May 09, 2016, 10:56:56 PM »

>including Johnson and Stein
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #27 on: May 09, 2016, 11:40:30 PM »

Hillary is not a lock.
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ucscgaldamez1
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« Reply #28 on: May 09, 2016, 11:56:44 PM »

Let's take a look at PPP previous poll matchup between Clinton and Trump:

PPP Polls Clinton Vs. Trump

11/16 - 11/17    46- 44   Clinton +2
12/16 - 12/17   45-43   Clinton +2
2/2 - 2/3        46-44   Clinton +2
3/24 - 3/26          45-42   Clinton +3

This poll would be +4 the highest since November 2015. I think the bigger story here is that Republicans are coalescing around him. Their unfavorable numbers are way high. I actually do think Trump may carry Ohio but lose Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. He may win Iowa if he chooses Joni Ernst as his vp.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #29 on: May 10, 2016, 12:18:25 AM »

Given Trump's unpopularity, a 3rd party candidate getting a few per cent this year is certainly possible.  The problem is, I don't think there's an easy way for the polls to measure this.  Polls tend to be terrible at distinguishing between someone getting 0.1% and someone getting 4.0%.
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ucscgaldamez1
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« Reply #30 on: May 10, 2016, 12:22:42 AM »

Sorry guys, I realized I had clicked on Clinton vs. Cruz. I think the last PPP poll had Clinton over Trump by 7.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #31 on: May 10, 2016, 01:09:11 AM »
« Edited: May 10, 2016, 01:11:50 AM by Virginia »

He may win Iowa if he chooses Joni Ernst as his vp.

Well unless I am missing a recent spat of far more favorable polls (the ones I see are from Nov -> March), Ernst isn't really that popular. Home state advantage is typically not an advantage without high approval ratings and wide recognition.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #32 on: May 10, 2016, 02:53:52 AM »

I feel like I am beating a dead horse, but I have to mention that PPP always finds absurdly low approval numbers in all of their polls.
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windjammer
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« Reply #33 on: May 10, 2016, 04:24:04 AM »

We'll see,
I still believe she will win by 10 points in the end.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #34 on: May 10, 2016, 09:24:40 AM »
« Edited: May 10, 2016, 09:26:43 AM by Fusionmunster »

So if anyones curious, PPP also included numbers without Stein or Johnson.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/05/gop-quickly-unifies-around-trump-clinton-still-has-modest-lead.html

Clinton - 47%
Trump - 41%

Litterally identical to their March poll.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #35 on: May 10, 2016, 09:36:26 AM »


From this poll…

Do vaccines cause autism?

Dems
yes 18%
no 53%
not sure 29%

GOP
yes 20%
no 53%
not sure 27%

Indies
yes 16%
no 53%
not sure 31%

Was Obama born in the US?

Dems
yes 85%
no 9%
not sure 6%

GOP
yes 26%
no 58%
not sure 16%

Indies
yes 58%
no 22%
not sure 20%

Is Obama Christian or Muslim?

Dems
Christian 73%
Muslim 10%
not sure 17%

GOP
Christian 13%
Muslim 59%
not sure 28%

Indies
Christian 43%
Muslim 27%
not sure 30%
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Maxwell
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« Reply #36 on: May 10, 2016, 09:41:57 AM »

Clinton leads by a more substantial 47-41 if we remove Independents, which sounds about right. Polling the third party candidates is pretty dumb at this point, and them being at 4% and 2% respectively is actually pretty piss poor.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #37 on: May 10, 2016, 09:44:36 AM »


Planned Parenthood wanted Clinton for the purpose of SCOTUS. Biden was splitting vote with Sanders. Like Clinton & Edwards did in 08
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #38 on: May 10, 2016, 10:54:45 AM »

By the way, its a 6 point lead without Stein and Johnson.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #39 on: May 10, 2016, 01:27:25 PM »


You know people don't like you when you trail Nickelback.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #40 on: May 10, 2016, 01:42:02 PM »

As we saw in the Rasmussen poll, there is a rally around nominee. But, with Female and minority voters theres no improvement.
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RFayette
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« Reply #41 on: May 10, 2016, 02:16:23 PM »

PPP is widely known for garbage and Pro-R national polls.

junk it.

Are you capable of making a good post?

From his posts here, one thing's for sure:  Marty is well-known for his great insight about polls. Tongue
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Seriously?
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« Reply #42 on: May 11, 2016, 09:28:18 PM »

As per usual in this place, just about every red avatar hates Republicans, so they think that any poll that reflects what is likely the reality about the state of the race must not be true. Because eeeeeeeeeevvvvvvvvilllll Donald Trump (or fill-in-the-blank Republican) is dumb and hates men, women, puppy dogs, unicorns, rainbows, people of every race, religion and creed and is an inept candidate as compared to whomever the Democrats put up (even if that candidate is extremely ethically challenged).

If any actual intellectual honesty instead of red avatar hackishness were employed, they would realize that this country is polarized. It is an open seat election and the fundamentals remain the same as they did in 2000 and 2008.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #43 on: May 11, 2016, 11:39:30 PM »

Something to remember:

Mondale 1984    40.56
Carter 1980 41.01 
McGovern 1972  37.52
Goldwater 1964 38.47
Stevenson 1956 41.97
Landon 1936  36.54
Hoover 1932 39.65

These are the some of the weakest performances in Presidential campaigns in two-way races in the last 90 years. (Really, Carter barely fits this category because John Anderson got 6.61% of the popular vote). These involve two failed Presidencies and wildly-successful bids for re-election by an incumbent. 

We should remember that any poll that shows Donald Trump at 37% or so puts him at a historic low for a Presidential nominee, near the absolute floor for the Presidency in one of the two-way races.

But there is no incumbent running. Fine. Should the 2016 election remain a two-way race with no significant third-party contender, then this suggests the bare minimum for Donald Trump:

GHW Bush 53.37  Dukakis 45.65

....Anyone who believes that Donald Trump will get less than 45% of the vote in a two-way race fails to recognize the optimum in an open-seat election when the incumbent is seen as highly successful but that the usual partisan fatigue is setting in.  Is Barack Obama as effective a President as Ronald Reagan was? Probably not.

 
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #44 on: May 12, 2016, 05:08:36 PM »

These natl polls dont mean. Obama won over 3.5 million votes. And he won in a landslide
 Clinton will maintain a 3-5 point lead all the way through.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #45 on: May 12, 2016, 05:24:03 PM »

....Anyone who believes that Donald Trump will get less than 45% of the vote in a two-way race fails to recognize the optimum in an open-seat election when the incumbent is seen as highly successful but that the usual partisan fatigue is setting in.  Is Barack Obama as effective a President as Ronald Reagan was? Probably not.

Right, but I think you are oversimplifying this. Trump is an extraordinarily weak and vulnerable candidate and comparing this to completely different historical scenarios is not that accurate. The only major factors this election has in common with 1988 is that 1) A party is seeking a 3rd term and 2) The election is taking place during a time where party preferences are shifting one way (1988 was a rightwards shift and 2016 is now in a leftwards shift)

I'm not saying Trump will lose in a landslide, but rather that you are narrowly focused on historical parallels and ignoring the major issues with Trump. If Hillary didn't have her own baggage, this could easily be a landslide.
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Reginald
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« Reply #46 on: May 12, 2016, 06:20:47 PM »

As per usual in this place, just about every red avatar hates Republicans, so they think that any poll that reflects what is likely the reality about the state of the race must not be true. Because eeeeeeeeeevvvvvvvvilllll Donald Trump (or fill-in-the-blank Republican) is dumb and hates men, women, puppy dogs, unicorns, rainbows, people of every race, religion and creed and is an inept candidate as compared to whomever the Democrats put up (even if that candidate is extremely ethically challenged).

If any actual intellectual honesty instead of red avatar hackishness were employed, they would realize that this country is polarized. It is an open seat election and the fundamentals remain the same as they did in 2000 and 2008.

At the moment people are taking these polls too seriously, there's no doubt about that. Let's wait until October and see who's doing the unskewing then.
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