Clinton/Trump: Your battleground
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Author Topic: Clinton/Trump: Your battleground  (Read 1557 times)
Mr. Illini
liberty142
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« on: May 05, 2016, 10:36:37 AM »
Inspired by CNN's release of their initial battleground map. Draw your own.

90% SAFE
50% LIKELY
30% LEAN
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #1 on: May 05, 2016, 10:45:20 AM »
This election is very unpredictable, so I am being extremely cautious with calling anything safe:



232-206

Likely/Safe: 190-163
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Crumpets
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« Reply #2 on: May 05, 2016, 10:46:27 AM »


Clinton - 308
Trump - 191
Tossup - 39

I would have made Iowa lean Dem, but there hasn't been any polling there since January, so I figure it's really anybody's guess what's going on there.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #3 on: May 05, 2016, 10:52:53 AM »


RIP in PEACE, America.  : (
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President Johnson
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« Reply #4 on: May 05, 2016, 10:53:41 AM »
Dark= Safe
Normal= Likely
Light= Lean
Grey= Toss up



237 - 209 - 92
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #5 on: May 05, 2016, 11:05:43 AM »
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Xing
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« Reply #6 on: May 05, 2016, 11:40:03 AM »
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #7 on: May 05, 2016, 11:59:35 AM »
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Mr. Illini
liberty142
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« Reply #8 on: May 05, 2016, 12:46:12 PM »
Interesting that many put Michigan as more likely to go Trump than Minnesota despite Minnesota being home to many of the older white Dems (explaining state's R shift in recent years).
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #9 on: May 05, 2016, 12:53:41 PM »
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Mallow
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« Reply #10 on: May 05, 2016, 12:57:29 PM »
I've got FL, NC, OH, and AZ as my tossups (see my prediction map)
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
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« Reply #11 on: May 05, 2016, 01:14:14 PM »
This would be my map for a competitive election.  It's already 259-206, so Trump would still have an uphill battle.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #12 on: May 05, 2016, 01:21:59 PM »

I was going to make my own until I saw yours. It's more or less on the mark for what I see right now. I'm sure things will change, but as it stands right now, that is how the race is shaping up (imo).
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Maxwell
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« Reply #13 on: May 05, 2016, 01:35:53 PM »

Didn't Trump get third the Minnesota primary? I'd sooner put Michigan as Lean R than Minnesota as a Toss-up.
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Senator-elect Spark
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« Reply #14 on: May 05, 2016, 01:37:22 PM »


257-206
Toss-up- 75

90% = Solid
50% = Likely
30% = Lean
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Doimper
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« Reply #15 on: May 05, 2016, 01:38:30 PM »

Jesus screaming Christ, dude, what are you smoking?
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Ljube
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« Reply #16 on: May 05, 2016, 02:15:51 PM »
Here are the battleground states:
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Ronnie
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« Reply #17 on: May 05, 2016, 02:49:20 PM »
« Edited: May 05, 2016, 03:09:41 PM by Ronnie »
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TJ in Oregon
TJ in Cleve
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« Reply #18 on: May 05, 2016, 03:04:31 PM »
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #19 on: May 05, 2016, 03:05:13 PM »
Not sure why people are putting Mississippi on the map - that state seems to have a pretty low ceiling for Dems.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #20 on: May 05, 2016, 03:08:01 PM »

I would love your justification for Mississippi being a toss-up and Alabama being Lean R.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #21 on: May 05, 2016, 03:18:05 PM »


30% - is Toss-up/Tilt
50% - is Lean/Likely
70% is completely Safe

I think Pennsylvania is a little closer than everyone thinks. At the same time, I think Colorado, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Virginia are almost completely out of reach for Trump, while Florida is damn close. Trump is also in danger of losing Arizona, Georgia, and Nebraska's 2nd.

It's a tough map to overcome, but it's also a tough map to get a landslide with, barring major hispanic turnout in Texas and a complete routing in Utah.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
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« Reply #22 on: May 05, 2016, 03:18:35 PM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on May 05, 2016, 03:08:01 PM

I would love your justification for Mississippi being a toss-up and Alabama being Lean R.

For that matter, on any map that has MS as a toss-up, why on earth would SC be solid GOP?  I mean, I assume the premises are:

1. Trump is weak among Bible Belt whites
2. Clinton is a very strong candidate in the Black Belt
3. Trump is toxic enough among minorities to drive up turnout against him

If that makes MS toss-up and Alabama Lean R, SC has to be Lean D.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #23 on: May 05, 2016, 03:20:06 PM »
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shua
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« Reply #24 on: May 05, 2016, 03:31:03 PM »
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