From
Our Senate:
Minnesota - Toss-Up
Incumbent: Mark Dayton (D) - elected in 2000
Dayton is not running for reelection, which is good because his approval ratings had dipped into the low 40’s. This race is a pure toss-up, with no real indications yet of where it is headed. Two Democrats are running, Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar and famous children’s safety advocate Patty Wetterling. One Republican, Rep. Mark Kennedy, has the GOP field to himself. This should be a close race no matter what, and we will have no idea how it is going until more polls are conducted.
Mississippi - Solid Republican
Incumbent: Trent Lott (R) - elected in 1988
In most states Lott would be considered a prime target. But this is Mississippi.
Missouri - Likely Republican
Incumbent: Jim Talent (R) - elected in 2002 special election
Talent should be very vulnerable. He eked out a smaller-than-expected win in 2002 and is firmly on the political right wing representing a traditional swing state. Missouri has gotten more Republican, but it still has many strong Democrats on the state level. None of them have announced their intentions to challenge Talent though, and only one, State Auditor Claire McCaskill, is even considering. If McCaskill runs, this becomes Lean Republican. Until then, Likely Republican.
Montana - Lean Republican
Incumbent: Conrad Burns (R) - elected in 1988
Burns had a tight race in 2000 and faces a growing Democratic tide in Montana now. He also has two potentially strong challengers, the likely nominee being State Senate President Jon Tester. Tester is a farmer with strong rural appeal similar to that of Governor Schweitzer (D), and is already getting heavy donations from the internet. He stands a good chance once he raises his currently very low name recognition, especially with Burns only polling at 50% against him. This race may end up very close.
Nebraska - Lean Democratic
Incumbent: Ben Nelson (D) - elected in 2000
Here you have a state where 2/3 of the people favored President Bush in 2004, and where the conservative Democratic incumbent barely won in 2000. Yet Republicans have been unable to field a strong opponent to Nelson in deep-red Nebraska, and so far his only challenger is the guy he beat in 2000, Don Stenberg. As a reasonably popular incumbent, Nelson has the upper hand, though not by a lot because of the state's usual partisan bent.
Nevada - Solid Republican
Incumbent: John Ensign (R) - elected in 2000
Frustratingly, this conservative incumbent in bellwether Nevada is safe and might not even face credible opposition.
New Jersey - Likely Democratic
Incumbent: Jon Corzine (D) - elected in 2000
Before even finishing his first term, Corzine is running for Governor this year. If he wins in November, he will appoint a successor to his Senate seat who will keep the seat warm until the 2006 elections. On the off-chance that Corzine does not win the governorship, he will easily keep his seat.
New Mexico - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Jeff Bingaman (D) - elected in 1982
Bingaman is safe. His only close race was in the year of the Republican Revolution, 1994.
New York - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Hillary Clinton (D) - elected in 2000
To Rush Limbaugh’s chagrin, Hillary is very popular in New York and will easily earn another term, given that her strongest challenger is a little-known D.A. whose husband is in prison.
North Dakota - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Kent Conrad (D) - elected in 1986, then in 1992 special election
Conrad won in a landslide in 2000 and should do so again in 2006 unless Governor Hoeven (R) runs against him. If Hoeven doesn’t run, it will stay Solid Democratic. If Hoeven does run, it will be automatically become a Toss-Up.
Ohio - Solid Republican
Incumbent: Mike DeWine (R) - elected in 1994
DeWine should win easily, but rumors abound of a primary challenge to him from the right, possibly from former Rep. John Kasich (R). DeWine should triumph, but if he doesn’t survive the primary, Democrats could suddenly stand an excellent chance of taking back a Senate seat in Ohio.
Coming soon: the dramatic conclusion, from Pennsylvania to Wyoming.
