2008: Kerry vs. Giuliani
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  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderator: Dereich)
  2008: Kerry vs. Giuliani
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Author Topic: 2008: Kerry vs. Giuliani  (Read 1008 times)
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bronz4141
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« on: May 04, 2016, 07:19:38 PM »

President John Kerry runs for a second term, the Republicans nominate former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani over John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Bill Frist. Who wins?
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #1 on: May 04, 2016, 07:34:36 PM »


380: Fmr. Mayor Rudy Giuliani/Sen. Christine Todd Whitman - 55.5%
158: Pres. John Kerry/Sen. Hillary Clinton - 40.4%

John B. Anderson/Donald Trump(Reform) - 3.9%
Others: 0.2%
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Dancing with Myself
tb75
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« Reply #2 on: May 06, 2016, 01:54:51 AM »

I'd see McCain or Huckabee winning more likely in this scenrio over Rudy but I digress and apologize.


This scenario would depend on the economy and Iraq. If Kerry does a decent job with Iraq, gets some things done, and stops the economy from being as bad he could win, but if things go the same as in RL Rudy would win easily.

Kerry would also be hurt by Edward's scandal. He'd be gone more than likely and replaced. I'd see Obama getting it if Kerry is in rough shape to appeal to the base. In a better situation it'd be Barry or Biden.

Going with the RL 08 scenario Rudy should roll. Rudy would appeal on a theme of hope and Americana while focusing hard on solid improvement on foreign policy, the economy, and morals in government ala 2000. To that end I see Huckabee getting the VP slot. He gets the moral and religious base excited with his religous background and adds some populism to the Rep campaign. Rudy goes on his 9/11 background and has solid help from McCain. Kerry seems bored and doesn't excite as many people and Obama has to do double duty.

I see maybe a third partier but nothing major. Maybe Paul as a Libertarian. In 2012 I could see a Trump run of some sort possibly.


Anyways on Election Day in a RL type situation I see Rudy and Huckabee winning a solid win over Kerry and Obama. Obama helps to save the dems somewhat and is the favorite for 2012. Paul does great with his base and gets a lot of online voters and has a good showing for the Libs at 3%





Rudy/Huckabee- 321 EV's

Kerry/Obama- 217 EV's



That's the best I see Rudy doing. The Reps would do much better in Congress with crushing pickups in both houses.


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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #3 on: May 06, 2016, 10:41:10 AM »

Maybe I should have done a Paul/Penny ticket. IMO, Kerry would handle the economy about as well as Bush, Iraq somewhat worse, and then John Edwards's scandal being unveiled in 2008. Other than that and spending about the same as Bush if not slightly more, he would do better. Then again, there's not much else besides those four that Bush was thought to have handled too badly - mainly because that's ninety percent plus of what he did.
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CommanderClash
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« Reply #4 on: May 06, 2016, 04:28:47 PM »
« Edited: May 06, 2016, 04:36:45 PM by clash »

The economic crisis, the Edwards scandal, and a messy exit from Iraq doom Kerry's re-election bid.



Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani/Former Governor Jim Gilmore - 322 EV (52%)
President John Kerry/Vice President John Edwards - 216 EV (45%)
Mr. Ralph Nader/Mr. Matthew Gonzales - 0 EV (2%)


2016:


President Rudy Giuliani/Vice President Jim Gilmore - 292 EV (51%)
Senator Barack Obama/Former Governor Tim Kaine - 246 EV (48%)
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HisGrace
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« Reply #5 on: July 05, 2016, 04:09:49 PM »

The recession probably happens even if Kerry wins, and he gets blamed. Plus he would have had a lot of the anti-war crowd angry at him and feeling betrayed as Iraq dragged on, since his 04 campaign was more anti-war in tone than it was in actual policy. Giuliani, meanwhile, could have won New York and New Jersey, plus possibly Connecticut, NH, and Penn. based on his personal popularity, social liberalism and frustration with Kerry. Giuliani probably wins in a landslide.
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