Election night 2006 version 2

[zorkpolitics]

Republican’s worst  results assumes Republicans are under attack for  scandals, arrogance, and incompetence
1) Iraq has not settled down (violence continues no significant numbers of US troops have come home.
2) Economy is worse than today
3) Gas prices are around $3.00 gallon
4) Neither Social Security reform nor an energy bill have passed
5) The deficit is more in 2006 than 2005
6) DeLay is on trial

Republicans could lose 4 seats!  They lose PA, RI, TN, and MO and fail to pick up MN or any other seat.

I think this is possible, but only give it about 10% probability.

What senario do you think is more likely version 1 or version 2?

[Moooooo]

You forgot Montana.

[Jake]

Version Two, this one is more likely. Though a mix will certainly happen.

One by one:

1) Iraq is an enigma. Elections were held, the government is stable, and the troops are making progress against the insurgents. I'd say by 2006 we have around 75K troops there and a somewhat stable democracy is established. Low level violence continues Slight GOP advantage

2) The economy could go either way. This depends on energy, which depends on Iraq. My prediction is the economy stays where it is. Democratic advantage

3) Gas looks like it is staying up. I'd put gas around 2.50 by Fall 2006. Democrat Advantagep

4) Social Security looks dead for now. No real advantage I think some sort of energy bill will end up passing. Whether it will do anything is debateble. Very slight GOP advantage

5) Deficit will stay the same Democratic Advantage

6) DeLay looks to have escaped trial for now. I doubt he will ever go on trial. No advantage

With this outlook, look for the Democrats to gain from 1 to 3 seats (PA, MT, and RI seem likely)