PQ Leadership - October 7, 2016

[RogueBeaver]

LOL: Marceau is proposing that a PQ government hold a 2021 referendum with beau risque, i.e. renewed federalism, as the other option. With a Trudeau as PM. You can't make this crap up.

Cloutier has the sigs.

[RogueBeaver]

What Max and DC said. There are hardly any differences between the candidates, and there's a lot of Cloutier/Hivon support overlap.

[RogueBeaver]

Léger has Cloutier at 37%, Lisée 15%, Hivon 14%, Ouellet 7%. Referendum positions are a wash, and Cloutier has been endorsed by 12 of 19 possible caucus members.

Hivon and Lisée both proposing reforms to doctors' pay.

[RogueBeaver]

Breguet: Lisée will give Cloutier a real race, but Cloutier probably the favorite based on preferences & centrist positioning.

[RogueBeaver]

Fundraising position unchanged in Q2.

3 debates: Sept. 11 Sherbrooke, Sept. 25 here, Oct. 2 Quebec City.

[RogueBeaver]

Hivon quits for health reasons.

[RogueBeaver]

Cloutier's rivals are pissed that the establishment is foursquare behind him. Breguet still thinks he edges Lisée on preferences. Closest leadership since Johnson squeaked out a win over Bertrand in '61.

[RogueBeaver]

Léger has Cloutier 39 (+2), Lisée 23 (+8), Ouellet 18 (+5) in their leadership poll. Provincial ballot test is 34-29-23. Cloutier wins on the 3rd ballot 48-30.

For those interested, here are Cloutier and Lisée's platforms.  Cloutier also promised to build a HSR line between Montreal and Quebec City.

What the next PQ leader needs to do: reunite the party, pull off a successful major attack on the CAQ, write a good platform at next year's policy convention.

[RogueBeaver]

No, polls were accurate last year (final public poll: PKP 59%, he won with 57%) and in 2007. Combined with other indicators, as Breguet has said throughout the race, Cloutier is still gonna win.

[RogueBeaver]

There are other factors too: fundraising, establishment support, Lisée being a polarizing, arrogant (he made a video pretending to be a nice guy recently) figure whose sovereignty plank diametrically opposes Ouellet's. Cloutier's campaign is mediocre and bland but he'll win. Besides, we haven't had a leadership campaign where the outcome was in doubt since 1961.

[RogueBeaver]

Today's debate was predictable without any memorable headlines. Advantage Cloutier.

[RogueBeaver]

Here Bréguet explains at length why Cloutier's a lock to win. In a Le Devoir interview, Cloutier says he would unilaterally withdraw from the Council of the Federation and try to replace the Court of Appeal with a homegrown "constitutional council" that would be shut down by the Supreme Court in a nanosecond. A man with his legal credentials knows that, so I assume that's just yuge red meat for Ouellet supporters.

[RogueBeaver]

Lisee says he's prepared to lose.

[RogueBeaver]

Pundits sounding the alarm at Cloutier's flailing campaign. I thought for a long time that Lisee's iconoclasm precluded a win, since neither party has elected one as leader postwar, but have now changed my mind.

[RogueBeaver]

Cloutier still holds a tiny advantage as voting begins next week. Will be our closest leadership race EVAH. Even in 1961 Johnson won 55/45.

[RogueBeaver]

Voting ends at 5 PM tomorrow, results will be announced at a Quebec City rally tomorrow night. Right now Breguet has Lisée as the narrowest of favourites, but still a pure tossup.

Michel David speculates that Ouellet may be expelled for flagrant insubordination.

Cloutier counting on homeboy turnout in Saguenay.

Gagnon: Candidates are pretty evenly matched, Lisée has a better political instinct and is mature but Cloutier's more affable and moderate. Cloutier preferable due to Lisée's identitarian demagogy, arrogance and being too clever by half, Cloutier can mature with time.

[RogueBeaver]

Lisée won, obviously. https://twitter.com/nspector4/status/784569286820069376