OH-PPP: All tied up

[windjammer]

Well,
If Trump wins the WH, Portman wins.
And if Clinton wins the WH, Strickland wins.

No party split ticket!

[windjammer]

Well,
If Trump wins the WH, Portman wins.
And if Clinton wins the WH, Strickland wins.

No party split ticket!

Not true. 

Strickland can well win Trump voters in Appalachia who would be turned off by Portman's trade record.

So you believe Strickland is going to overperform Hillary???

[windjammer]

Well,
If Trump wins the WH, Portman wins.
And if Clinton wins the WH, Strickland wins.

No party split ticket!

Uh, Portman can win even if Trump loses the state.

May I ask why?

He's a bland senator,  he has never led the polls by a big margin, Strickland is a top tier recruit. Money don't buy elections.

[windjammer]

Well,
If Trump wins the WH, Portman wins.
And if Clinton wins the WH, Strickland wins.

No party split ticket!

Not true. 

Strickland can well win Trump voters in Appalachia who would be turned off by Portman's trade record.

So you believe Strickland is going to overperform Hillary???

I don't think it's plausible Portman is elected if Clinton wins, but I do think it's plausible Strickland gets elected if Trump wins. Unlikely, but plausible.

It's less about outperforming and more about where they will be performing. I expect Clinton to have higher numbers in the North East than Strickland, and I expect him to have higher numbers in Appalachia, where he may well get some split-ticket support.

Portman: pro-trade, against TPP for election
Strickland: hard anti-trade
Clinton: pro-trade, against TPP for election
Trump: hard anti-trade

Well,
I still think whoever wins Ohio in the presidential election (except if this is really close) will make his party win the senate seat.

[windjammer]

Portman has a colorful résumé, and won more popular votes in 2010 than Strickland statewide.  Plus, wasn't Strickland an unpopular governor?  Anyway, this will be close, but my gut tells me Portman will narrowly prevail.

He was a so unpopular governor he lost only by 2 points, he carried many appalachian counties, that's turnout that sank him to be honest.
And even if it won't matter, Strickland's margin in 2006 was bigger than Portman's margin in 2010 (in %), but that won't matter because the contest will be different.

Portman isn't going to overperform the republican nominee, so whoever wins the WH (except if this is <1%) will make his party win the OH senate seat.