IN - ARG: Trump +9, Clinton +8 (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 09:57:39 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls
  IN - ARG: Trump +9, Clinton +8 (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: IN - ARG: Trump +9, Clinton +8  (Read 4067 times)
Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,237
United States


« on: April 30, 2016, 05:56:19 PM »

Wait 49% of Indiana approves of Obama. Why havent we banned this group yet.

Why wouldn't they when he's at a clear majority nationally. That's right on target.

I would expect Obama to be in the low 40s in a state like Indiana.



If that...Indiana might have voted for him in 2008 but I can't see him above 40% there now and I think Obama's approval is several points above even where you would expect in the blue states. He's probably sitting at 38% in Indiana and 48% in Ohio

They polled 400 likely voters in each party's primary. That even self-identified D/R split is likely to make responses seem more purple state than a red state like IN. Though that in and of itself doesn't necessarily throw off the results of the individual primary numbers.

Leaving any issues about this being ARG (haven't they been at less not notably less off than most posters this cycle? Or at least been in the ballpark enough to rise above the status of complete effing joke? Or is that Gravis I'm thinking of?), there's no way Kasich is getting 21% next week, and Cruz will win the lion's share of the difference.

IF this poll is accurate, Trump may be in trouble Tuesday.
Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,237
United States


« Reply #1 on: April 30, 2016, 08:29:25 PM »
« Edited: April 30, 2016, 08:42:40 PM by Badger »

Wait 49% of Indiana approves of Obama. Why havent we banned this group yet.

Why wouldn't they when he's at a clear majority nationally. That's right on target.

I would expect Obama to be in the low 40s in a state like Indiana.



If that...Indiana might have voted for him in 2008 but I can't see him above 40% there now and I think Obama's approval is several points above even where you would expect in the blue states. He's probably sitting at 38% in Indiana and 48% in Ohio

They polled 400 likely voters in each party's primary. That even self-identified D/R split is likely to make responses seem more purple state than a red state like IN. Though that in and of itself doesn't necessarily throw off the results of the individual primary numbers.

Leaving any issues about this being ARG (haven't they been at less not notably less off than most posters this cycle? Or at least been in the ballpark enough to rise above the status of complete effing joke? Or is that Gravis I'm thinking of?), there's no way Kasich is getting 21% next week, and Cruz will win the lion's share of the difference.

IF this poll is accurate, Trump may be in trouble Tuesday.

They were off by 20+ in Wisconsin and Maryland, and that's only recently...

Did you note I capitalized/emphasized "IF"? Wink

Actually I just noticed something: EXCEPT for the ARG outlier, EVERY poll in the last 2 weeks before WI had Cruz up. The last three sans ARG averaged him ahead by +6. On the other hand, every IN poll (except that excerable Cruz +16 joke) in the last week and a half has had Trump up. Taking out the aforementioned joke poll, plus the borderline internal +2 poll, and the last three IN polls including this one have Trump up an average of +6.6. If any #neverTrump types want to nitpick over excluding the +2 poll, its inclusion would still have Trump up by about 5 1/2.

This still will be close, and Cruz could pull off an upset, but even if the polls are overestimating Trump's lead by as much as 5 points he'll still win. And unlike previous contests where he needed to win big in order to run his delegate totals up ahead of the pack, in IN he basically just needs to win by 1 vote to make his nomination near-certain.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.022 seconds with 13 queries.