IN - ARG: Trump +9, Clinton +8

[swf541]

Why havent we banned ARG yet?  I mean you cant even guess which way they get it wrong or "forgot to poll area x"

[swf541]

ARG was the last poll that came out before Wisconsin voted. They Undershot Cruz's actual # by 16. Overshot Trump's actual # by 7, and Overshot Kasich's actual # by 9. They've been about Kasich's best pollster the whole campaign, almost always overshooting his actual result, and usually by a lot. They also seem to be very frequently off on Trump, almost always in his favor as well. The only one they undershoot on a regular basis is Cruz. These IN numbers are actually almost exactly what the Wisconsin numbers were. Now I don't think Cruz is going to win IN by 13 like he did in Wisconsin, but seeing Trump up by 9 over Cruz in an ARG poll doesn't make me think Trump's going to win Indiana, either. They were way off in TX, IA and MI as well, to name a few.

I have a hard time seeing Kasich getting 21% in Indiana, with him not campaigning or advertising there, and with Pence endorsing Cruz.

I don't think you can apply any consistent biases to ARG. They had Hillary up 1 in Wisconsin but only up 6 in Maryland. It's better to just ignore them.

This