IN - ARG: Trump +9, Clinton +8 (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 11:55:03 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls
  IN - ARG: Trump +9, Clinton +8 (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: IN - ARG: Trump +9, Clinton +8  (Read 4073 times)
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« on: April 29, 2016, 02:32:38 PM »

Good lord, the Indiana polls in the past few days have been dire.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #1 on: April 29, 2016, 04:07:05 PM »

ARG was the last poll that came out before Wisconsin voted. They Undershot Cruz's actual # by 16. Overshot Trump's actual # by 7, and Overshot Kasich's actual # by 9. They've been about Kasich's best pollster the whole campaign, almost always overshooting his actual result, and usually by a lot. They also seem to be very frequently off on Trump, almost always in his favor as well. The only one they undershoot on a regular basis is Cruz. These IN numbers are actually almost exactly what the Wisconsin numbers were. Now I don't think Cruz is going to win IN by 13 like he did in Wisconsin, but seeing Trump up by 9 over Cruz in an ARG poll doesn't make me think Trump's going to win Indiana, either. They were way off in TX, IA and MI as well, to name a few.

I have a hard time seeing Kasich getting 21% in Indiana, with him not campaigning or advertising there, and with Pence endorsing Cruz.

I don't think you can apply any consistent biases to ARG. They had Hillary up 1 in Wisconsin but only up 6 in Maryland. It's better to just ignore them.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #2 on: April 30, 2016, 07:54:52 PM »

Wait 49% of Indiana approves of Obama. Why havent we banned this group yet.

Why wouldn't they when he's at a clear majority nationally. That's right on target.

I would expect Obama to be in the low 40s in a state like Indiana.



If that...Indiana might have voted for him in 2008 but I can't see him above 40% there now and I think Obama's approval is several points above even where you would expect in the blue states. He's probably sitting at 38% in Indiana and 48% in Ohio

They polled 400 likely voters in each party's primary. That even self-identified D/R split is likely to make responses seem more purple state than a red state like IN. Though that in and of itself doesn't necessarily throw off the results of the individual primary numbers.

Leaving any issues about this being ARG (haven't they been at less not notably less off than most posters this cycle? Or at least been in the ballpark enough to rise above the status of complete effing joke? Or is that Gravis I'm thinking of?), there's no way Kasich is getting 21% next week, and Cruz will win the lion's share of the difference.

IF this poll is accurate, Trump may be in trouble Tuesday.

They were off by 20+ in Wisconsin and Maryland, and that's only recently...
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.029 seconds with 15 queries.