OR - Hoffman Research Group: Trump with double digit lead (user search)
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  OR - Hoffman Research Group: Trump with double digit lead (search mode)
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Author Topic: OR - Hoffman Research Group: Trump with double digit lead  (Read 3218 times)
Holmes
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Posts: 13,748
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

« on: April 28, 2016, 02:36:29 PM »

Trump 43%
Cruz 26%
Kasich 17%

Trump 49% fav/40% unfav
Cruz 42% fav/37% unfav
Kasich 35% fav/25% unfav

Conducted April 26 - 27 among 555 Republican (likely?) voters, MoE +/- 4.2%.

http://www.opb.org/news/series/election-2016/donald-trump-poll-oregon-election/
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Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,748
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

« Reply #1 on: April 28, 2016, 02:39:46 PM »

Nate Cohn's model has Trump winning Oregon now. Cruz abandoning the state probably rubbed them a bit the wrong way, and I sincerely doubt Carly plays well at all in Oregon. If Trump performs well in Oregon, he may have a chance in Montana.
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Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,748
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

« Reply #2 on: April 28, 2016, 07:54:33 PM »
« Edited: April 28, 2016, 08:00:46 PM by Holmes »

Doesn't WA have a 50% WTA trigger like CT?  Or is the trigger by district like in NY?

WA is a little dumb. There is a 20% threshold for statewide delegates and congressional district delegates. If a candidate (Kasich) does not reach the 20% threshold statewide, any delegates he would've normally gotten are unbound. Sort of like how it was in Louisiana when Rubio (and all other losers) didn't reach the threshold, the delegates weren't scattered among Cruz and Trump, they became unbound. So it's not like Cruz and Trump would get more statewide delegates if Kasich falls below 20%.

As for congressional district, they all have 3 delegates. Similar rules to how Rhode Island did it, only the threshold is 20% this time instead of 10%. And yes, the WTA threshold is 50%. So if a candidate gets 50%, they get all 3 delegates. If Kasich falls below 20%, and no one gets a majority then the split is 2-1 for the winner and runner up, respectively. If there is no majority and Kasich is over 20% in the district, the delegates split 1-1-1.

As for OR, there is no WTA threshold, all 28 delegates (statewide and district) are allocated proportionally based on the statewide vote, and the threshold is about 3.5% so everyone will pass it.
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