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November 27, 2020, 08:45:26 AM
News: 2020 Election day live thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

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  IPFW-IN: Clinton +13 (search mode)
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Author Topic: IPFW-IN: Clinton +13  (Read 2285 times)
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« on: April 29, 2016, 02:29:14 AM »

I could buy Clinton winning Indiana, but I seriously doubt it'll be a double-digit win.
I'm not so skeptical.  Ohio and Pennsylvania were both double digit wins in which Clinton won the white vote and did well in rural counties.  Maybe whatever appeal Clinton has in those states carries over to Indiana?

Keep in mind that PA was closed. I'm still not sure why Sanders tanked so much in OH, and that should be a concern for him in Indiana. At the same time, the demographics are more similar to Missouri, which was a true nail-biter, and Clinton hasn't done very well in the Chicago area (in IL or WI), and she needs Lake to come in big for her if she's going to win. Rural IL and MI were pretty strong for Sanders, so I'm not sure we should only be looking to OH and PA for clues about how IN will vote.

Lake and Marion are key... Clinton won whites 61-39 and Obama won AA voters 92-8... I don't think Sanders will do that well with whites and I don't think Clinton will do that well with AA voters.
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