Republican Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET)

[The Other Castro]

Nate Cohn's model only shows Trump slightly losing 5 districts today: MD-7, MD-8, PA-2, PA-4, and PA-16.

[IceSpear]

Pat Toomey voted for Cruz
http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/mc-pat-toomey-votes-for-ted-cruz-20160426-story.html

HP

[swf541]

Nate Cohn's model only shows Trump slightly losing 5 districts today: MD-7, MD-8, PA-2, PA-4, and PA-16.

Hmm, I think Trump may win either the 8th or 7th just a hunch though.  No clue on the PA ones, I know some GOP people who switched from Kasich to Trump in both PA and MD since the Kasich-Cruz alliance.

[Gass3268]

Nate Cohn's model only shows Trump slightly losing 5 districts today: MD-7, MD-8, PA-2, PA-4, and PA-16.

Past results would suggest Trump should win PA-02 and MD-07 (both are only about 1/3 white), while I think the gerrymander could save Trump in MD-08, but that could be the closest one in MD. PA-04 and PA-16 make sense for Cruz.

I'm going with Trump only losing 2 districts.

[swf541]

Nate Cohn's model only shows Trump slightly losing 5 districts today: MD-7, MD-8, PA-2, PA-4, and PA-16.

Past results would suggest Trumps should win PA-02 and MD-07 (both are only about 1/3 white), while I think the gerrymander could save Trump in MD-08, but that could be the closest one in MD. PA-04 and PA-16 make sense for Cruz.

I'm going with Trump only losing 2 districts.

Forgot about the gerrymandered 8th, I agree with you on the 7th

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Nate Cohn's model only shows Trump slightly losing 5 districts today: MD-7, MD-8, PA-2, PA-4, and PA-16.

Past results would suggest Trumps should win PA-02 and MD-07 (both are only about 1/3 white), while I think the gerrymander could save Trump in MD-08, but that could be the closest one in MD. PA-04 and PA-16 make sense for Cruz.

I'm going with Trump only losing 2 districts.

Yeah, I'm really not sure I see Trump losing the 2nd. It's almost certainly his worst of the three Philadelphia districts, but I have seen people open carrying in the 'suburban' part of the district. It's rich, but it's also a mishmosh of classes. This strikes me as Trump-land. The 4th also should go for Trump imo. I didn't have Trump losing the 16th, but I guess I could see why Cruz would do well as opposed to the other 2 in the model. I'm not sure why it's much worse than 7th though. I think the gerrymander is screwing with people or something.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Yet, here are the 6 Lyin' Delegates:

Michelle Harris Kichline (PA-06)
Joan Miller (PA-07)
Michael Puppio (PA-07)
Robert Willert (PA-07)
Shannon Oscar (PA-13)
David Dumeyer (PA-16)

Wow, glad I didn't let Puppio trap me with the (possibly) Italian last name. I just voted for the two Trump delegates instead of any DW. Despicable.

Pat Toomey voted for Cruz
http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/mc-pat-toomey-votes-for-ted-cruz-20160426-story.html

Good heavens, now I really have to hope Sestak wins. What a loser.

They actually say McGinty has a good shot at winning the Dem primary.

Yep, I'm definitely aware. She has to be the favorite, which would push me right back to Toomey sadly.

[IceSpear]

Katie McGinty might very well be a Shelley Berkley waiting to happen.

Shelley Berkley only lost due to an ethics probe. At the very least, McGinty is a squeaky clean candidate.

[Holmes]

Yeah, McGinty can win Pennsylvania in a Presidential year with Trump or Cruz at the top of the ticket. It would be easier with Sestak though.

[IceSpear]

Yup, Toomey starts as the favorite, but with a sane Republican at the top of the ticket he'd be a shoo in. GOP primary voters are the gift that keeps on giving.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Why are people so sure about Trump winning Costello and Meehan's districts?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I didn't say McGinty can't win. I just said I would never vote for her.

Why are people so sure about Trump winning Costello and Meehan's districts?

Interestingly both Meehan and his primary opponent have tried to tie themselves to Trump, so maybe you are on to something, but this is very much prime Kasich territory. If the far west #NeverTrump parts of the district vote for Cruz, then maybe it will be divided, but my expectation is Kasich by 4-5.

[The Other Castro]

PA exit: Has this primary energized/divided your party?

GOP
Energized 39%
Divided 58%

[The Other Castro]

If no one wins 1237 the GOP should nominate:

Primary Winner: 70%
Best Candidate: 28%

[IceSpear]

If no one wins 1237 the GOP should nominate:

Primary Winner: 70%
Best Candidate: 28%

RIP #NeverTrump

[ElectionsGuy]

My delegate prediction for Trump:

CT: 28/28
DE: 16/16
MD: 32/38
PA: 17/17
RI: 10/19

Trump: 949

[The Other Castro]

If no one wins 1237 the GOP should nominate:

Primary Winner: 70%
Best Candidate: 28%

RIP #NeverTrump

This was from PA btw.

[The Other Castro]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[The Other Castro]

PA GOP exit: If XXX is the nominee...

Trump
Definitely vote for: 56%
Probably vote for: 20
Not vote for: 22

Cruz
Def 25%
Prob 36%
Not 37%

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

PA GOP exit: If XXX is the nominee...

Trump
Definitely vote for: 56%
Probably vote for: 20
Not vote for: 22

Cruz
Def 25%
Prob 36%
Not 37%

I have never been prouder of a poll then I am of this one! #NeverCruz

[The Other Castro]

GOP exits -- white evangelicals:
PA: 42%
MD: 36%
CT: 20%

All states before today: 48%
Low: MA 20%
High: MS 76%

[Eraserhead]

PA GOP exit: If XXX is the nominee...

Trump
Definitely vote for: 56%
Probably vote for: 20
Not vote for: 22

Cruz
Def 25%
Prob 36%
Not 37%

Aren't those kind of numbers considered a "spoiler"? It makes it pretty obvious who won.

[The Other Castro]

PA GOP exit: If XXX is the nominee...

Trump
Definitely vote for: 56%
Probably vote for: 20
Not vote for: 22

Cruz
Def 25%
Prob 36%
Not 37%

Aren't those kind of numbers considered a "spoiler"? It makes it pretty obvious who won.

Kind of, seems like a 50-30-20 race to me, though I have no idea.

[The Other Castro]

[RI]

PA GOP exit: If XXX is the nominee...

Trump
Definitely vote for: 56%
Probably vote for: 20
Not vote for: 22

Cruz
Def 25%
Prob 36%
Not 37%

Those numbers are pretty similar to New York. The "Definitely" numbers are identical, slightly fewer #NeverCruz types and slightly more #NeverTrump types, but not by very much.