PA-OpinionSavvy/PA-CPEC: McGinty +5/+6 in the primary

[MT Treasurer]

OpinionSavvy

McGinty    39%
Sestak    34%
Fetterman 14%
Undecided 13%

http://opinionsavvy.com/2016/04/25/poll-trump-clinton-lead-in-pennsylvania/

Same poll says Clinton +11 in PA.

CPEC

McGinty: 46%
Sestak: 40%
Fetterman: 13%

Same poll says Clinton +26 in PA.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.s3.amazonaws.com/polls/20160425_PA_1.pdf

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Oh, goodness, this is not good.

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D:

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Honestly, this race is Likely R.  It could fall in a Democratic landslide, but, unless Hillary wins by a ton, Toomey is probably safe.

[syntaxerror]

Its a trend... 3 recent polls all show McGinty +5/+6. Obviously high undecideds leave the race unpredictable, but the DCCC money is working.

[JMT]

I really thought Sestak would win this thing (he still might, we'll see tomorrow) but it's looking more likely McGinty is going to pull this off. Which I'm glad, I prefer McGinty anyways, but I'm surprised nonetheless.

[Ronnie]

Yeesh, looks like the Democrats were successful in their attempt to beat Sestak into a bloody pulp.  They better hope McGinty doesn't end up being a dud against Toomey.  Considering she's just an establishment hack, she might have trouble attracting independents against a fairly popular incumbent.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Yeesh, looks like the Democrats were successful in their attempt to beat Sestak into a bloody pulp.  They better hope McGinty doesn't end up being a dud against Toomey.  Considering she's just an establishment hack, she might have trouble attracting independents against a fairly popular incumbent.

The establishment cares more about winning primaries than attracted independents.

[Virginiá]

Yeesh, looks like the Democrats were successful in their attempt to beat Sestak into a bloody pulp.  They better hope McGinty doesn't end up being a dud against Toomey.  Considering she's just an establishment hack, she might have trouble attracting independents against a fairly popular incumbent.

The establishment cares more about winning primaries than attracted independents.

Because true "independent" voters are far rarer than the label statistics would suggest. A good bit of Millennials are independents because they don't like to be labeled with parties they don't find pure or fully agree with, yet they vote the same way in all the elections they participate in, just as if they actually had their choice party listed as their affiliation in their registration. All these young Millennials growing up will very likely continue voting the same way, regardless of what their official party affiliation is listed as.

[IceSpear]

Well shoot. Her endorsements served her well.

Hopefully Sestak pulls off the upset. If not, I'll be hoping an anti-Trump wave washes McGinty into the Senate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Toomey tend to overpoll just like in 2010 when he was well ahead of Sestak.  This seat will fall for the Dems because Dems are favored to win NH, FL, WI and IL and Dems will clear the 50 seat thresehold to win the Senate.