PPP PA/CT/RI close on Democratic side, large Trump leads

[Seriously?]

How many delegates would Trump secure tomorrow if those are the results?

I have him somewhere between 95 and 106 of the 118 pledged delegates.

If Trump breaks 60% in RI, he's in the 10-11 delegate range in the state depending on the breakdown. Cruz/Kasich will get 4-5 each in how the rules go.  If Trump ends up with 50%, we're looking at 9-10 range of the 19 total.

I gave Kasich/Cruz a 1-4 CDs in MD in my estimate as well.

DE is WTA. CT > 50% is WTA. PA is WTA for the 17 pledged.

[Seriously?]

If PPP is about right, could Cruz be in danger of not clearing the 10% threshold for a delegate in the RI 1st congressional district?  I'm assuming that would be the district he'd do worse in.

Probably not. There are just 2 CDs. You'd think in a state that small, there won't be a ton of variance. RI-1 is D+15, RI-2 is D+8. If there is one he'd tank in it's RI-1. But unlikely. He'll either crash in both CDs or get the participation delegates.

[Seriously?]

What are the %age cutoffs for additional delegates in RI?  What would Trump have to do to get the next statewide delegate over 50%+1?  What about in each CD?  Do we think Trump is stronger in Providence or in western RI?  I would tend to think Providence given NYC?

It's really ridiculously high. you basically need 66.7% for it to go 2/1 and 90% to take all 3. Or you need a candidate to fall under 10%.

Rubio would be proud of the participation trophies.