Post Kasich and Cruz collusion announcement: Who wins Indiana?

[Ronnie]

What do you all think?

[Holmes]

Still Trump.

[Vosem]

Cruz would already have won if undecideds broke to him the way they broke towards the consensus anti-_trump over the secondary anti-_trummp in other Midwestern states that had an anti-_trump. If they break towards him stronger, he'll just win by more.

So, Cruz, but it would've been Cruz regardless.

[Joe Kakistocracy]

The type of voter who wants to vote for Kasich is not going to vote for Cruz.  Trump wins.

[Fargobison]

The type of voter who wants to vote for Kasich is not going to vote for Cruz.  Trump wins.

They did in Wisconsin.

They aren't voting for Cruz, they are voting for an open convention.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

I'm still going with a narrow Cruz win, but we'll see what happens over the next week.

[Vosem]

The type of voter who wants to vote for Kasich is not going to vote for Cruz.  Trump wins.

...you don't live in the Boswash Corridor, why would you think that?

[Joe Kakistocracy]

The type of voter who wants to vote for Kasich is not going to vote for Cruz.  Trump wins.

They did in Wisconsin.

They aren't voting for Cruz, they are voting for an open convention.

As much as we would like to think otherwise, that isn't how most voters think about these things.

[john cage bubblegum]

These are moves of desperate campaigns, as it appears that many Republicans have reached the acceptance stage.  Especially if we see Trump getting something like 50% of the vote in Pennsylvania and dominating April 26th, then I think the primary race is reaching a breaking point.  This deal will boost Cruz's total in Indiana somewhat I'm sure, but my prediction is he still falls short by 2-4 points.

[libertpaulian]

This reminds me of the desperation move in the Florida and Ohio primaries last month. 

[Lief 🗽]

Safe TRUMP after this. Voters don't vote for losers, and this is as sure a sign of someone who knows he's losing as I've ever seen.

[Gass3268]

Enough of Kasich's supporters will go to Trump to give him the win.

Then again Indiana doesn't matter.

[Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu]

Trump, narrowly.

[MK]

So Cruz cant beat Trump outright in Indiana?        I thought he had all these advantages there?

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Safe TRUMP after this. Voters don't vote for losers, and this is as sure a sign of someone who knows he's losing as I've ever seen.

That's a joke. Cruz is gonna win by 3-7 points in Indiana.

Gass, first time in my lifetime that Indiana has mattered in a primary season for the GOP.

[Seriously?]

Safe TRUMP after this. Voters don't vote for losers, and this is as sure a sign of someone who knows he's losing as I've ever seen.

[Gass3268]

Safe TRUMP after this. Voters don't vote for losers, and this is as sure a sign of someone who knows he's losing as I've ever seen.

That's a joke. Cruz is gonna win by 3-7 points in Indiana.

Gass, first time in my lifetime that Indiana has mattered in a primary season for the GOP.

It's a big deal because if Trump wins the race is over. However, it also doesn't matter because even if Cruz does win by 3-7 points, Trump is going to pick up 9-12 delegates which is all he needs with the polling numbers he's getting out of California and New Jersey.

[The Other Castro]

Safe TRUMP after this. Voters don't vote for losers, and this is as sure a sign of someone who knows he's losing as I've ever seen.

That's a joke. Cruz is gonna win by 3-7 points in Indiana.

Gass, first time in my lifetime that Indiana has mattered in a primary season for the GOP.

It's a big deal because if Trump wins the race is over. However, it also doesn't matter because even if Cruz does win by 3-7 points, Trump is going to pick up 9-12 delegates which is all he needs with the polling numbers he's getting out of California and New Jersey.

It depends on how Trump's percentage in California will translate to delegates (also NJ is WTA so his percentage there doesn't matter). IF we assume Trump wins California and the only question is by how much, then a win in Indiana would probably get him the nomination. If he loses Indiana, Trump will probably need over 120 delegates from California. I'm not sure how big of a win PV that is though.

[Vosem]

This reminds me of the desperation move in the Florida and Ohio primaries last month. 

You do remember that _trump lost Ohio and that Cruz deliberately sabotaged unity efforts in Florida, right? I don't think there are any examples of polling showing one anti-_trump candidate double-digits above the rest and that person going on to lose the E-Day vote (though in MO, LA, and AZ Cruz was undermined by the early vote).

Unless _trump can manufacture actual momentum from his Northeast wins, for which there's no evidence considering he gained more delegates on Super Tuesday and FIMNO but still failed to get any momentum (and that the 60% of the party that stands against him hates his guts), Indiana is bordering on Safe Cruz.

[dax00]

Kasich's campaign may have conceded Indiana to Cruz, but the average voter wouldn't know that. Kasich would have to publicly say, "Vote for Cruz in Indiana," for Cruz to win.

[Vosem]

Kasich's campaign may have conceded Indiana to Cruz, but the average voter wouldn't know that. Kasich would have to publicly say, "Vote for Cruz in Indiana," for Cruz to win.

Kasich never publicly said "vote Cruz" in Wisconsin. A quarter of his supporters still switched to Cruz on election day.

Cruz never publicly said "vote Kasich" in Ohio. A quarter of his supporters still switched to Kasich on election day.

This is insurance. Cruz would've won Indiana even without this.

[Admiral Kizaru]

As long as Trump continues to keep things smooth and doesn't have any major negative incidents ala the week before the Wisconsin primary ........ which as we all know is kind of a big ask for Trump, I still think he manages to pull it off.

I think it's more likely that Kasich voters in Indiana will stay at home instead of mass transitioning to Cruz.

[Fuzzy Bear]

The GOP Voter's problem, particularly if he/she isn't a Trumpkin, is that the field of candidates as a whole is rather disappointing.  The only enthusiasm amongst the anti-Trump crowd is among the "Movement Conservative" types whose goal has always been to nominate the most doctrinaire conservative possible.  These folks have always been Cruz supporters.   The rest are folks who may, or may not, view Trump as the Antichrist, but they view things such as this collusion between Cruz and Kasich as unsavory.  If the two of them had joined forces and ran as a ticket, folks might have gone along with that.  But moves like this are the moves of losers.  Trump is right about that, and I think all of America agrees with that. 

[Young Conservative]

Still Cruz

[Suburbia]

Trump will win the Hoosier state.