2017: NJ Gubernatorial/legislative elections

[kyc0705]

Ouch, Murphy is winning big in Cloucester County.

Gloucester is a rather Democratic county. What's so surprising?

WTF NJ? Are you usually this slow when counting votes?

Well, we figure that since we talk so damn fast, we should slow down at least once in a while.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Ouch, Murphy is winning big in Cloucester County.

Gloucester is a rather Democratic county. What's so surprising?

It narrowly voted for Trump last year

[kyc0705]

Ouch, Murphy is winning big in Cloucester County.

Gloucester is a rather Democratic county. What's so surprising?

It narrowly voted for Trump last year

Yeah, and it's the first time that it went Republican in a presidential election since the '80s. It's by no means a bellwether.

[Tintrlvr]

Ouch, Murphy is winning big in Cloucester County.

Gloucester is a rather Democratic county. What's so surprising?

It narrowly voted for Trump last year

Yeah, and it's the first time that it went Republican in a presidential election since the '80s. It's by no means a bellwether.

There aren't really any great bellwether counties in New Jersey, but Bergen, Burlington and Gloucester are the probably the closest you'll find.

[Mr. Matt]

Guadagno underperforming bad in Monmouth. Has only 52%!

Now up to 54% with 75% in.

Also Vin Gopal beating Jen Beck right now 55.4-44.6 with 77% in District 11

[The Govanah Jake]

Guadagno underperforming bad in Monmouth. Has only 52%!

Now up to 54% with 75% in.

Also Vin Gopal beating Jen Beck right now 55.4-44.6 with 77% in District 11

She should be leading in the upper 60s if she even wanted a chance at winning. Now with 75% and more in the county and Murphy already called, with Guadagno at only 54%, it is over as it was from the start

[kyc0705]

Ouch, Murphy is winning big in Cloucester County.

Gloucester is a rather Democratic county. What's so surprising?

It narrowly voted for Trump last year

Yeah, and it's the first time that it went Republican in a presidential election since the '80s. It's by no means a bellwether.

There aren't really any great bellwether counties in New Jersey, but Bergen, Burlington and Gloucester are the probably the closest you'll find.

Maybe, although I've never thought about it. Having lived most of my life in Gloucester County, I've been perusing its recent election results. It seems like an occasional drift into R territory is either a sign of a landslide (Christie 2013), the appeal of a specific candidate (somewhat Trump 2016), or the odd vote-splitting (Christie 2009/Trump 2016). It's not very elastic otherwise.

[Bojack Horseman]

Why the hell is this still so close in NJ?

[BudgieForce]

Why the hell is this still so close in NJ?

Because most of the blue area is still out. The Bergen county numbers probably mean Murphy will outperform his polls.

[The Govanah Jake]

The more Democratic New York City suburban county's around Newark should start to fully report now ending whatever closeness Murphy has to Guadagno.

[Shadows]

NYT had Murphy @ 55% & Guadagno @ 43.2%. That is around 8% (& not close) with 58% in. And many strong blue areas are yet to come.

I can see Murphy winning by 11-12% atleast. Northam will by 8%, so Murphy @ 12% seems about right !

[BudgieForce]

NYT had Murphy @ 55% & Guadagno @ 43.2%. That is around 8% (& not close) with 58% in. And many strong blue areas are yet to come.

I can see Murphy winning by 11-12% atleast. Northam will by 8%, so Murphy @ 12% seems about right !

Murphy's win will be closer to 20%.

[Ye We Can]

Meeeeh. I think Guadagno stays above 40, but barely. Bergen would be waaaay worse for her rn if she was gonna lose by that much.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Murph will probably be criticized for not winning by 20 but people didn't care about this race so underperformance is not shocking 

[BudgieForce]

Seriously, give it time. Murphy will get close to 60%.

[Shadows]

Murphy is already leading by 11.6% & is going up & up. Don't know what people are expecting.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

LD 25 (home base for me) is currently 50/50 according to NYT with 61% reporting. Hillary won by 200 votes after Romney won it comfortably in 2012

[Suburbia]

State Senator Jennifer Beck defeated. Her NJ GOP career is probably over.

[Suburbia]

Who is the future of the NJ GOP? Bramnick is underperforming.

[Lord Admirale]

Murphy really shows how poor of a candidate he is by winning by a relatively small margin when you look at Christie's approval ratings.

[BudgieForce]

Murphy really shows how poor of a candidate he is by winning by a relatively small margin when you look at Christie's approval ratings.

There are still huge chunks of blue counties out.

[Bojack Horseman]

Murph will probably be criticized for not winning by 20 but people didn't care about this race so underperformance is not shocking 

Ugh, I hope those blue areas are still out. I wanted this to be an obliteration so badly.

[Suburbia]

Poor Jen Beck.

[Shadows]

Murphy really shows how poor of a candidate he is by winning by a relatively small margin when you look at Christie's approval ratings.

Christie is not running in 2017. If people are not happy that a 2 time GOP Gov. seat goes to a Dem with a margin of 13.2% (current margin), then they never will be. What did people expect? A 25% win?

[BudgieForce]

Damn, Turnout kinda sucks.