Cruz is incapable of winning a general election, & Trump is a stronger candidate
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  Cruz is incapable of winning a general election, & Trump is a stronger candidate
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Author Topic: Cruz is incapable of winning a general election, & Trump is a stronger candidate  (Read 1728 times)
DemPGH
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« Reply #25 on: April 24, 2016, 07:25:47 PM »

And one thing that's been very, very consistent is that candidates less likely to receive a nomination run stronger in these general election polls.

That doesn't seem to be "very, very consistent".  As recently as 2012, you had a frontrunner (Romney) who did better than his Republican rivals in GE matchups against Obama.


I was speaking of this cycle, where general election polls have varied widely. They are essentially useless at this point.

My view is that if a person routinely struggles to win 30% of his own party, and is in a distant second place with the 3rd place contender nipping at his heels at this point in the game, he is not strong, which is just simple logic. Plus, Cruz right now is creating his own headlines! And he can't win his party. Wait till the media gangs up on him, if he would manage to steal it. Good lord. People would be lining up down the street to get a piece of him. And that's the issue, IMO. Anyone who thinks Cruz would be strong has failed basic logic.
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Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #26 on: April 24, 2016, 07:45:31 PM »

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Trump is, by far, the weakest GOP frontrunner. Now he's calling to do permanent harm to the party in order to salvage his worthless campaign.

Cruz, for all his flaws, is the strongest challenger since Reagan. Does that strike you as a particularly undistinguished competition?
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MK
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« Reply #27 on: April 24, 2016, 08:12:05 PM »

And one thing that's been very, very consistent is that candidates less likely to receive a nomination run stronger in these general election polls.

That doesn't seem to be "very, very consistent".  As recently as 2012, you had a frontrunner (Romney) who did better than his Republican rivals in GE matchups against Obama.


I was speaking of this cycle, where general election polls have varied widely. They are essentially useless at this point.

My view is that if a person routinely struggles to win 30% of his own party, and is in a distant second place with the 3rd place contender nipping at his heels at this point in the game, he is not strong, which is just simple logic. Plus, Cruz right now is creating his own headlines! And he can't win his party. Wait till the media gangs up on him, if he would manage to steal it. Good lord. People would be lining up down the street to get a piece of him. And that's the issue, IMO. Anyone who thinks Cruz would be strong has failed basic logic.


This is simple logic that Cruz supporters dont get.    You cant claim to be strong when you cant even beat the guy you supposedly say is such a flawed weak candidate against Hillary.     
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #28 on: April 24, 2016, 09:42:48 PM »

Cruz is too far right for a general election.  In every poll this primary season, he only wins the "very" conservatives, but loses the "somewhat" conservatives, moderates, and independents. 
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Figs
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« Reply #29 on: April 24, 2016, 10:25:22 PM »

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Trump is, by far, the weakest GOP frontrunner. Now he's calling to do permanent harm to the party in order to salvage his worthless campaign.

Cruz, for all his flaws, is the strongest challenger since Reagan. Does that strike you as a particularly undistinguished competition?

He's unable to come close to the extraordinarily weak frontrunner. How does that not make him weak?
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Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #30 on: April 24, 2016, 11:25:26 PM »

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Umm, newsflash, he's already close.

Reagan couldn't beat the weakest frontrunner in Ford. How did that work out for Reagan? Pretty damn good.

Trump's not going to win us anything just like Ford lost to the peanut farmer!
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #31 on: April 24, 2016, 11:58:15 PM »

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Trump's gonna get blown out for the same reason they always get blown out. You don't out-Democrat the Democrats. Ever. When's the last time that policy actually... worked?

Trump's been all over the map. In an election where conservatives need vote number 5 on the supremes... are we really gonna turn out for Trump?

in election where vote number 5 (as well as 6 and 7) are stake, are Conservatives really going to stay home?

Regardless of who Trump might pick, you know damn well who Hillary will pick.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #32 on: April 25, 2016, 01:30:07 AM »

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Umm, newsflash, he's already close.

Reagan couldn't beat the weakest frontrunner in Ford. How did that work out for Reagan? Pretty damn good.

Trump's not going to win us anything just like Ford lost to the peanut farmer!
The problem is Cruz loses every demographic except the far right.  

Reagan won every single demographic, whether racial, ethnic, political, gender, etc., with the exception of AAs, and even then, he won an impressive chunk of their vote.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #33 on: April 25, 2016, 02:46:16 AM »

And one thing that's been very, very consistent is that candidates less likely to receive a nomination run stronger in these general election polls.

That doesn't seem to be "very, very consistent".  As recently as 2012, you had a frontrunner (Romney) who did better than his Republican rivals in GE matchups against Obama.


I was speaking of this cycle, where general election polls have varied widely. They are essentially useless at this point.

My view is that if a person routinely struggles to win 30% of his own party, and is in a distant second place with the 3rd place contender nipping at his heels at this point in the game, he is not strong, which is just simple logic. Plus, Cruz right now is creating his own headlines! And he can't win his party. Wait till the media gangs up on him, if he would manage to steal it. Good lord. People would be lining up down the street to get a piece of him. And that's the issue, IMO. Anyone who thinks Cruz would be strong has failed basic logic.


This is simple logic that Cruz supporters dont get.    You cant claim to be strong when you cant even beat the guy you supposedly say is such a flawed weak candidate against Hillary.     

Nothing logical about that at all, IMHO.  Strength in the primary election is quite different from strength in the general election, and they sometimes run counter to one another.  Many of the very qualities that allow Trump to attract votes in the primaries (e.g., the fact that he's running as the pure id of the primary electorate) are the very things that will repel voters in the general election.

Now, there's the separate issue about whether the means by which you win the nomination might cause your electability to self-destruct.  Maybe Kasich would be more electable than Trump in the abstract, in the sense that if they'd won the nomination the same way in different years, Kasich would have a better chance in the GE.  But Kasich's problem is that the only means left for him to be nominated involve "subverting democracy" in the primary process, and that creates all kinds of additional problems for him.
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