What if Rubio had stayed in?
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  What if Rubio had stayed in?
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Author Topic: What if Rubio had stayed in?  (Read 831 times)
Lyin' Steve
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« on: April 23, 2016, 04:54:58 PM »

Would he have just drifted down to an irrelevant single-digits place?  Would he be a player in the GOP strategy that's currently playing out?  Would he have eventually made his way ahead of Cruz?
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Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1 on: April 23, 2016, 07:15:52 PM »

He'd be completely irrelevant.
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dax00
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« Reply #2 on: April 23, 2016, 07:18:20 PM »

He may have prevented Trump from exceeding 50% in a few more NY CDs, and Trump at least wouldn't have gotten that OK unpledged delegate. Every delegate counts...
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #3 on: April 23, 2016, 07:24:25 PM »

He would be doing a lot better than Kasich is (assuming Kasich got out instead).  It would be a close three-way race between Marco, Ted, and the RINO
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Coolface Sock #42069
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« Reply #4 on: April 23, 2016, 07:32:25 PM »

If Rubio did well enough to stay in after March 15, he would have had to win Florida, which means he would have done so well that I doubt Kasich would still be in the race as the establishment would be fully behind Rubio and he'd have more "endorsement points" than Hillary. Cruz may be out of the race at this point as well given that Rubio and Cruz have nearly identical voting records in the Senate and Rubio would have likely won many states, like Virginia, Hawaii, and maybe Illinois and Ohio (if Kasich was out by then) for starters if he was strong enough to win his home state and stay in the race (and so he would have a ton of delegates).

I'm thinking it would be a Rubio vs. Trump race right now, and it would be a very interesting one. We would see a conservative/establishment unity behind Rubio while the rest would be behind Teflon Don.

Come to think of it, Cruz seemed to pass on a lot of opportunities to attack Marco Rubio, and vice versa. Perhaps each was hedging on being the other's VP. 
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #5 on: April 23, 2016, 07:35:43 PM »

He'd continue to do terrible and screw Cruz even further.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #6 on: April 23, 2016, 07:38:44 PM »

He would be doing a lot better than Kasich is (assuming Kasich got out instead).  It would be a close three-way race between Marco, Ted, and the RINO

Rubio had collapsed into the single digits and trailed Kasich in many March 5th, 12th, and 15th states.  To say he would have bounced back to being a real contender after being swamped like that seems like wishful thinking to me.

Anyway, I think it's pretty dubious that he would have helped anti-Trump cause had he stayed in the race.  Any instances in which he would have kept Trump beneath a particular threshold would be counterbalanced by the fact that he would have divided the opposition in key states.  He could have split the vote enough so that Trump would have won a couple more congressional districts in Wisconsin, or maybe even the state at large.  Indiana would be Likely Trump, rather than Tossup.  And so on.
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Coolface Sock #42069
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« Reply #7 on: April 23, 2016, 11:05:52 PM »

He would be doing a lot better than Kasich is (assuming Kasich got out instead).  It would be a close three-way race between Marco, Ted, and the RINO

Rubio had collapsed into the single digits and trailed Kasich in many March 5th, 12th, and 15th states.  To say he would have bounced back to being a real contender after being swamped like that seems like wishful thinking to me.

Anyway, I think it's pretty dubious that he would have helped anti-Trump cause had he stayed in the race.  Any instances in which he would have kept Trump beneath a particular threshold would be counterbalanced by the fact that he would have divided the opposition in key states.  He could have split the vote enough so that Trump would have won a couple more congressional districts in Wisconsin, or maybe even the state at large.  Indiana would be Likely Trump, rather than Tossup.  And so on.
No, what we're saying is that in order for Rubio to have stayed in, he would have had to do much better than he did.
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Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #8 on: April 23, 2016, 11:22:44 PM »

What I think the OP is getting at is a scenario identical to real life, except for instead of Rubio throwing in the towel after Florida, he essentially says "F it, I'm staying in no matter what! I don't care about funding or results or polling or delegates! I'm staying in and no one can tell me otherwise!" If we project things forward from there:

AZ - Given that he easily placed third here based on wasted early votes, he might have been able to inch his way past Cruz into 2nd if he was still in the race, or at least come close enough to claim a virtual tie for 2nd to try to gain momentum.
UT - Irrelevant, Cruz got nearly 70% and only needed 50.1%.

At this point, he probably puts everything on a miracle in Wisconsin. If he pulls off a win or strong second, all power to him and he is once again a factor in the race. If he doesn't, he probably finally throws in the towel.

This scenario probably plays out almost identically if nothing changes from real life except Florida is made a lot closer, allowing Rubio to claim he gave TRUMP "a real run for his money in a state I was declared DOA in by the media". Probably he gets 2nd in Arizona in this scenario, but again is dependent on Wisconsin for a miracle.

If he's staying in because he actually won Florida (not changing anything else from real life), then the resulting momentum means he probably gets some delegates out of Wisconsin and is in through at least the 4/26 primaries, with a shot at winning in Pennsylvania.
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Iowa+3
Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #9 on: April 24, 2016, 12:55:19 AM »

Would have continued the votesplitting with Cruz. Trump would have already secured the nomination.

More interesting is the question if Rubio dropped before Super Tuesday, would Cruz have swept the South?
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