Why are people suddenly assuming Cruz is DOA?

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Don't get me wrong, I hate Cruz, but aren't we jumping the gun a bit here? A couple of polls don't really prove a clear trend, and it was a given that Cruz would get flattened in NY and other Northeastern states. Even if Cruz can't win Indiana, he's still a lock to win Nebraska, and should have a good chance in Oregon and Washington. May should be a good month for him, and I wouldn't be surprised if everyone goes back to saying Trump is the one who's DOA, which is exactly what people were saying before New York.

[TJ in Oregon]

Because some folks believe momentum is more important than demographics. I will admit the Indiana poll is very concerning, however. Indiana is a very different state than Wisconsin and Cruz certainly won't win it by double digits.

[Ronnie]

Everybody's judgment about Trump's prospects to win the nomination swings wildly from primary to primary.  I've conditioned myself to ignore the noise the best I can, always being rather firm about his odds being slightly less than 50/50, but most others clearly have not.  That said, if Trump manages to breach 50% in most or all of next week's primaries and accumulate ~110 pledged delegates, I think Cruz will have to face somewhat of a headwind going into Indiana, especially since polls have him down right now.

[Holmes]

Well he came in third in New York, he's most likely going to come in third in five primaries in a few days, he's down 7-8% in Indiana, and Trump is ahead in the polls in California by at least 18%.

[PeteB]

Why? Because opinions on Atlas swing faster than Trump's abortion positions or Hillary's email explanations . And if you think they are burying him now, wait until next week.

I still think he has a decent chance in IN and almost a lock on NE and a few other western states, so the DOA verdict may be premature. However, I have been saying for a while that Cruz is a competent but essentially a fringe candidate; why someone would bank the whole party on him is beyond me.

[Erc]

Literally no one had polled Indiana until this week the entire year.  We'd been assuming Cruz would do well there based on Wisconsin / demographics / etc., but we had little in the way of hard data.

I wouldn't be surprised if Cruz ends up winning Indiana, but it's tougher than we imagined.

We're too far out from California to draw any conclusions...and if Trump wins Indiana it likely won't matter.

EDIT: The polling here might help Cruz; it may make the tactical voting needs more obvious to the #NeverTrump Kasich voter.  If Kasich wants to win the nomination, he needs to make sure to come a distant, distant third in Indiana.

[swf541]

Literally no one had polled Indiana until this week the entire year.  We'd been assuming Cruz would do well there based on Wisconsin / demographics / etc., but we had little in the way of hard data.

I wouldn't be surprised if Cruz ends up winning Indiana, but it's tougher than we imagined.

We're too far out from California to draw any conclusions...and if Trump wins Indiana it likely won't matter.

EDIT: The polling here might help Cruz; it may make the tactical voting needs more obvious to the #NeverTrump Kasich voter.  If Kasich wants to win the nomination, he needs to make sure to come a distant, distant third in Indiana.

I believe it was previously stated, isnt Kasich supposedly contesting Indiana?

[Erc]

Literally no one had polled Indiana until this week the entire year.  We'd been assuming Cruz would do well there based on Wisconsin / demographics / etc., but we had little in the way of hard data.

I wouldn't be surprised if Cruz ends up winning Indiana, but it's tougher than we imagined.

We're too far out from California to draw any conclusions...and if Trump wins Indiana it likely won't matter.

EDIT: The polling here might help Cruz; it may make the tactical voting needs more obvious to the #NeverTrump Kasich voter.  If Kasich wants to win the nomination, he needs to make sure to come a distant, distant third in Indiana.

I believe it was previously stated, isnt Kasich supposedly contesting Indiana?

He should pretend to do so until Tuesday; doing so afterward is a suicidal move.  Kasich won't win on the first ballot and he already has Indiana on the second...but that doesn't matter if Indiana puts Trump over the top on the first ballot.

[ashridge]

Because too many people allow themselves to be taken hostage and led around by the nose by the Conventional Wisdom of the day. Even if it's completely different than it was yesterday.

[Young Conservative]

Because some folks believe momentum is more important than demographics. I will admit the Indiana poll is very concerning, however. Indiana is a very different state than Wisconsin and Cruz certainly won't win it by double digits.

Let's remember Cruz was down by the same numbers in Kansas and won huge. Im not sure Cruz will win huge, but I do think He will win.

[wolfsblood07]

Well he came in third in New York, he's most likely going to come in third in five primaries in a few days, he's down 7-8% in Indiana, and Trump is ahead in the polls in California by at least 18%.

I agree.  I am looking at this from the GOP establishment perspective.  Why throw Trump overboard, when he will come in with close to a majority of delegates and won millions of more votes than Cruz, a man they hate as much as Trump?  Trump may even clinch a majority of pledged delegates before the convention.  Every argument Cruz makes against Trump being the nominee could be turned back on him double.  I voted for Cruz, and think he would be a great president.  But at some point we have to face reality.  The path for Cruz isn't there, without an insane amount of backroom dealing.  And even if the party chooses to nullify the primaries, why give it to Cruz?  Cruz lost the primaries.  Paul Ryan doesn't want it, probably wisely for him as he sees the writing on the wall.  Mitt Romney?  I doubt he wants it at this point, unless I am completely misreading him.  Kasich maybe.  Yes, Kasich lost the primaries, but he was hardly in the game.  Putting Kasich on the ticket may piss off the fewest people with the exception of Trump, who is the only one with a legitimate claim on it.  If Trump goes on to lose the election in November, at least they will have lost with the guy who got the most votes and delegates and drew the biggest crowds.  Who knows, maybe Trump has an ace up his sleeve and can beat Hillary!

[Gass3268]

Because some folks believe momentum is more important than demographics. I will admit the Indiana poll is very concerning, however. Indiana is a very different state than Wisconsin and Cruz certainly won't win it by double digits.

Let's remember Cruz was down by the same numbers in Kansas and won huge. Im not sure Cruz will win huge, but I do think He will win.

That was a closed caucus in the Plains, right in Cruz's wheelhouse. Indiana is almost the opposite. Also it doesn't matter if Trump wins or loses Indiana, all he needs is to win a reasonable amount of delegates which is what these polls are showing.

[Young Conservative]

Because some folks believe momentum is more important than demographics. I will admit the Indiana poll is very concerning, however. Indiana is a very different state than Wisconsin and Cruz certainly won't win it by double digits.

Let's remember Cruz was down by the same numbers in Kansas and won huge. Im not sure Cruz will win huge, but I do think He will win.

That was a closed caucus in the Plains, right in Cruz's wheelhouse. Indiana is almost the opposite. Also it doesn't matter if Trump wins or loses Indiana, all he needs is to win a reasonable amount of delegates which is what these polls are showing.

Indiana is very to Wisconsin in demographics, political climate, and political endorsements.

[IceSpear]

Atlas (and political observers in general) are very fickle and volatile.

That said, this time it's kind of justified since we were mostly assuming Cruz was favored in Indiana. That no longer seems to be the case.

[libertpaulian]

Because some folks believe momentum is more important than demographics. I will admit the Indiana poll is very concerning, however. Indiana is a very different state than Wisconsin and Cruz certainly won't win it by double digits.

Let's remember Cruz was down by the same numbers in Kansas and won huge. Im not sure Cruz will win huge, but I do think He will win.

That was a closed caucus in the Plains, right in Cruz's wheelhouse. Indiana is almost the opposite. Also it doesn't matter if Trump wins or loses Indiana, all he needs is to win a reasonable amount of delegates which is what these polls are showing.

Indiana is very to Wisconsin in demographics, political climate, and political endorsements.

Important differences:

1). Trump will have the momentum going in

2). Governor Pence said he was endorsing "Anyone but the Democrat"

3). Governor Pence doesn't have the political capital that Governor Walker does.  Pence isn't exactly popular with Hoosiers right now.

[IceSpear]

Because some folks believe momentum is more important than demographics. I will admit the Indiana poll is very concerning, however. Indiana is a very different state than Wisconsin and Cruz certainly won't win it by double digits.

Let's remember Cruz was down by the same numbers in Kansas and won huge. Im not sure Cruz will win huge, but I do think He will win.

That was a closed caucus in the Plains, right in Cruz's wheelhouse. Indiana is almost the opposite. Also it doesn't matter if Trump wins or loses Indiana, all he needs is to win a reasonable amount of delegates which is what these polls are showing.

Indiana is very to Wisconsin in demographics, political climate, and political endorsements.

Important differences:

1). Trump will have the momentum going in

2). Governor Pence said he was endorsing "Anyone but the Democrat"

3). Governor Pence doesn't have the political capital that Governor Walker does.  Pence isn't exactly popular with Hoosiers right now.

Correct me if I'm wrong on this, but I doubt Indiana also has a highly influential unanimously Trump hating band of talk radio hosts to drive up turnout in the most heavily Republican part of the state, right?

Though there are much more evangelicals in Indiana, which is a plus in Cruz's favor.

[Gass3268]

Because some folks believe momentum is more important than demographics. I will admit the Indiana poll is very concerning, however. Indiana is a very different state than Wisconsin and Cruz certainly won't win it by double digits.

Let's remember Cruz was down by the same numbers in Kansas and won huge. Im not sure Cruz will win huge, but I do think He will win.

That was a closed caucus in the Plains, right in Cruz's wheelhouse. Indiana is almost the opposite. Also it doesn't matter if Trump wins or loses Indiana, all he needs is to win a reasonable amount of delegates which is what these polls are showing.

Indiana is very to Wisconsin in demographics, political climate, and political endorsements.

No it isn't, it's essentially a mix of Illinois, Kentucky and Ohio. Wisconsin is more of a mix between Minnesota and Germanic Illinois.

[MK]

If Trump reels off a slew of wins(which seems very possible) the perception among fence voters will be its time to just get in line behind Trump.  The narrative will have formed that Trump has it wrapped up.  This is has actually already started.