Kasich ceiling vs Hillary?

[BlueSwan]

Level of scrunity given to the candidates, their behaviour, their personalities and their political positions:

1. Hillary Clinton
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2. Donald Trump
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3. Ted Cruz
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4. Bernie Sanders
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5. John Kasich

In short: General election polls polling any other matchup aside from Clinton vs Trump is completely useless, and even polls on that match-up shouldn't be taken too seriously until the actual nominations are in place and we see how well the candidates manage to bring their respective parties together.

The fact that Kasich beats Clinton in polls means nothing. Having said that, he is easily the one of the three remaining with the best chances against Clinton.

[Famous Mortimer]

The number of people coloring MN blue is insane.

Minnesota goes Democratic no matter what.

[Temsiro]

What I think would actually happen:

274-291

So you'd have two presidents?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

418-120

[Virginiá]

418-120

That's not a 418 map. Do you know what a 418 map would look like? You would have to essentially turn the entire center of the country blue, take away Oregon/Washington and many more states that Kasich under no circumstances would ever win, absent another Great Depression under Obama.

Kasich's ceiling is not even close to 400, just like Democrats would be very hard-pressed to reach 400 themselves. Too many states are too partisan right now.

[The Free North]

The number of people coloring MN blue is insane.

Minnesota goes Democratic no matter what.

Romney only lost by 7%, MN != CA 

[Kingpoleon]

A recession begins just after the Republican Convention. While the Democrats do okay at their convention, Kasich crushes Hillary on economics and tying her on social issues. On foreign policy, Kasich reveals a set of policy plans mostly backed by the Powell Doctrine and wins narrowly(5-8 points).

400: John Kasich/Brian Sandoval(55.5%)
138: Hillary Clinton/Cory Booker(42.1%)
Others: 2.4%

[100% pro-life no matter what]

418-120

That's not a 418 map. Do you know what a 418 map would look like? You would have to essentially turn the entire center of the country blue, take away Oregon/Washington and many more states that Kasich under no circumstances would ever win, absent another Great Depression under Obama.

Kasich's ceiling is not even close to 400, just like Democrats would be very hard-pressed to reach 400 themselves. Too many states are too partisan right now.

I accidentally put the wrong map down.  That was my Clinton-Trump tied map.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

^PA is not staying red if NH, NV and NM are voting Republican. What is this, 1988?

2004?

[Coolface Sock #42069]

No GOPer will win Pa, the floor for Dems is Kerry 252 and it includes Pa.  Kasich would win NH, Iowa, CO, FL, OH and Va. Giving NV, NM and Pa to Clinton

So if the floor is 252, does that mean there is no 272 freiwal?

[Kingpoleon]

No GOPer will win Pa, the floor for Dems is Kerry 252 and it includes Pa.  Kasich would win NH, Iowa, CO, FL, OH and Va. Giving NV, NM and Pa to Clinton

So if the floor is 252, does that mean there is no 272 freiwal?

ABSOLUTE floor. Kasich ceiling 266 + 20 = 286 if recession. Then CCM<3 will only win by 1%, but Murphy carries SEN for DEMS.

[CivicParticipant]

John Kasich/Marco Rubio- 56.3% PV, 406 EVS
Hillary Clinton/Julian Castro- 41.7% PV, 132 EVS

[Virginiá]

Some of these maps are ridiculous. Do you guys have any data or information to back up this up, or are you just picking states you get a gut feeling for?

[JRP1994]

Home region advantage.

this isn't a thing - at least it certainly hasn't been a thing for a very long time.

Home State advantage?  Sure; provided that you're reasonably popular there that is definitely a thing.  But I can't think of any examples where a state has changed purely because a candidate came from somewhere vaguely nearby

Indiana 2008

[King]

You people haven't learned jack in this cycle. Kasich would not be popular in the event of his nomination.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

Something like this. You could perhaps throw Nevada into Kasich's column but I don't envision many hispanic voters flipping for a painfully white man from Ohio.

315-223

[IceSpear]

The number of people coloring MN blue is insane.

Minnesota goes Democratic no matter what.

I think MN could flip under ideal circumstances, though it was a tough one. The people coloring IL blue are way worse. Chicago will deliver the state for the Democrat in a presidential year, period.

[Protect Trans Hoosiers]

Home region advantage.

this isn't a thing - at least it certainly hasn't been a thing for a very long time.

Home State advantage?  Sure; provided that you're reasonably popular there that is definitely a thing.  But I can't think of any examples where a state has changed purely because a candidate came from somewhere vaguely nearby

Indiana 2008

Had absolutely nothing to do with Obama being from Chicago.  1) Hoosier independent voters were mad as hell at Bush, and were not going to take it anymore.  2) The IU-Purdue ground game for Obama was outstanding.

[Protect Trans Hoosiers]

^PA is not staying red if NH, NV and NM are voting Republican. What is this, 1988?

NH, NV, and NM are Freedom Republicans.

PA are Bible Republicans.

Kasich will do better with Freedom Republicans than Bible Republicans.

I would argue that if Kasich is the nominee and doing this well, Pennsylvania is in play.

Home region advantage.

Perhaps, but PA and OH are very different beasts.  PA was and is weird and difficult to predict.  It's very dependent on ground game, and Hillary Clinton will have significant advantages in that regard.

PA and OH are actually very similar. Historically Ohio votes about 3-5 points more Republican than Pennsylvania and this rarely deviates. Now with Kasich this will change because Ohio is his home state so he would do better at home

OH has by far the most reliably conservative metro area anywhere outside of the South (Cincinnati).  PA doesn't have anything like that.  Democrats in PA have a huge GOTV advantage that the GOP can't match.  On paper the two look similar, but in Presidential elections Ohio is much easier for the Republicans to capture.

[Adam the Gr8]

A handful of redditors stay home because BERNIEORBUST!!! and Kasich wins Oregon narrowly.

Maybe throw in Washington, New Jersey, Delaware and a few other states if there were a recession or something.

[Protect Trans Hoosiers]

A handful of redditors stay home because BERNIEORBUST!!! and Kasich wins Oregon narrowly.

Are the Timbers playing Election Day?  That could actually swing the state one way or another.

[IceSpear]

Home region advantage.

this isn't a thing - at least it certainly hasn't been a thing for a very long time.

Home State advantage?  Sure; provided that you're reasonably popular there that is definitely a thing.  But I can't think of any examples where a state has changed purely because a candidate came from somewhere vaguely nearby

Indiana 2008

Had absolutely nothing to do with Obama being from Chicago.  1) Hoosier independent voters were mad as hell at Bush, and were not going to take it anymore.  2) The IU-Purdue ground game for Obama was outstanding.

Angry IN whites will deliver the state for Trump this time.