Kasich ceiling vs Hillary?

[The Free North]

Assume he runs a fantastic campaign and stays as high in the polls vs Hillary throughout the summer in fall. I think this would be the absolute best he could do:


384-154

[Protect Trans Hoosiers]

Assume he runs a fantastic campaign and stays as high in the polls vs Hillary throughout the summer in fall. I think this would be the absolute best he could do:


384-154

Flip WA, OR, MN, CT, DE to red.

Flip ME-1 to blue.

However, Kasich is an uncharismatic, arrogant, stale, horribly unlikable candidate, and I don't think the "dream campaign" would happen.  I think this is a more realistic ceiling:

306-232

[MT Treasurer]

^PA is not staying red if NH, NV and NM are voting Republican. What is this, 1988?

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

bush 2004 minus new mexico and nevada, plus new hampshire, wisconsin, and ohio

[NOT gonna be banned soon]

The final question on the final debate... Clinton was failing in the polls, and needed to do something....

"I am a woman"

[Protect Trans Hoosiers]

^PA is not staying red if NH, NV and NM are voting Republican. What is this, 1988?

NH, NV, and NM are Freedom Republicans.

PA are Bible Republicans.

Kasich will do better with Freedom Republicans than Bible Republicans.

[beaver2.0]

^PA is not staying red if NH, NV and NM are voting Republican. What is this, 1988?

NH, NV, and NM are Freedom Republicans.

PA are Bible Republicans.

Kasich will do better with Freedom Republicans than Bible Republicans.

I would argue that if Kasich is the nominee and doing this well, Pennsylvania is in play.

Home region advantage.

[136or142]

I personally kind of like John Kasich, but it's obvious that he like Sanders is doing as well as he is in the polls because he's faced nowhere near the scrutiny that Hilary Rodham Clinton has or to some degree that Trump has. 

I don't think Taliban Ted Cruz has faced all that much scrutiny either, but he already has very high negative ratings.  It should be a concern to the Clinton campaign that he has such high negatives yet is basically tied with her in the national hypothetical polls.

[Protect Trans Hoosiers]

^PA is not staying red if NH, NV and NM are voting Republican. What is this, 1988?

NH, NV, and NM are Freedom Republicans.

PA are Bible Republicans.

Kasich will do better with Freedom Republicans than Bible Republicans.

I would argue that if Kasich is the nominee and doing this well, Pennsylvania is in play.

Home region advantage.

Perhaps, but PA and OH are very different beasts.  PA was and is weird and difficult to predict.  It's very dependent on ground game, and Hillary Clinton will have significant advantages in that regard.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

^PA is not staying red if NH, NV and NM are voting Republican. What is this, 1988?

NH, NV, and NM are Freedom Republicans.

PA are Bible Republicans.

Kasich will do better with Freedom Republicans than Bible Republicans.

I would argue that if Kasich is the nominee and doing this well, Pennsylvania is in play.

Home region advantage.

which is why mccain did so well in new mexico, colorado and nevada

[IceSpear]

369-169

[IceAgeComing]

Home region advantage.

this isn't a thing - at least it certainly hasn't been a thing for a very long time.

Home State advantage?  Sure; provided that you're reasonably popular there that is definitely a thing.  But I can't think of any examples where a state has changed purely because a candidate came from somewhere vaguely nearby

[OSR stands with Israel]

Kasich 396
Hillary 142


What I think would happen

Kasich 322
Hillary 216

[Coolface Sock #42069]

^PA is not staying red if NH, NV and NM are voting Republican. What is this, 1988?

NH, NV, and NM are Freedom Republicans.

PA are Bible Republicans.

Kasich will do better with Freedom Republicans than Bible Republicans.

I would argue that if Kasich is the nominee and doing this well, Pennsylvania is in play.

Home region advantage.

which is why mccain did so well in new mexico, colorado and nevada

McCain was also extremely weak (by GOP standards) in Utah.

[7,052,770]

While a theoretical popular "moderate"-ish governor of Ohio could win 400 electoral votes or more this year, Kasich would have a lot of trouble even getting 200 votes for two reasons:

• If he were somehow the nominee despite not even winning as many delegates as Rubio, that means he blatantly stole it away from Trump. Trump voters are going to be furious, as are Cruz voters, who think they were the ones who were supposed to be doing the stealing. With less than 10% of the total delegates, Kasich would be viewed as an illegitimate nominee by everyone who's not an Establishment Republican.
• Even if he could somehow overcome the first bullet point, Kasich obviously has no idea how to run a campaign.

[Derpist]

While a theoretical popular "moderate"-ish governor of Ohio could win 400 electoral votes or more this year, Kasich would have a lot of trouble even getting 200 votes for two reasons:

• If he were somehow the nominee despite not even winning as many delegates as Rubio, that means he blatantly stole it away from Trump. Trump voters are going to be furious, as are Cruz voters, who think they were the ones who were supposed to be doing the stealing. With less than 10% of the total delegates, Kasich would be viewed as an illegitimate nominee by everyone who's not an Establishment Republican.
• Even if he could somehow overcome the first bullet point, Kasich obviously has no idea how to run a campaign.

That and he basically has never been attacked before. Once Clinton's media-men finish up with him, he'll be toast.

[PeteB]

Kasich 396
Hillary 142


What I think would happen

Kasich 322
Hillary 216

That second map looks more realistic. Even if you gave a couple of large states to Clinton (PA and WI) it would still be:

Kasich 292
Hillary 246

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Kasich wouldn't win Oregon. Maybe if he were actually moderate, or even socially liberal, he'd have a small chance, but Oregon's not going Republican any time soon.

Not sure about NV or MN.

[PeteB]

While a theoretical popular "moderate"-ish governor of Ohio could win 400 electoral votes or more this year, Kasich would have a lot of trouble even getting 200 votes for two reasons:

• If he were somehow the nominee despite not even winning as many delegates as Rubio, that means he blatantly stole it away from Trump. Trump voters are going to be furious, as are Cruz voters, who think they were the ones who were supposed to be doing the stealing. With less than 10% of the total delegates, Kasich would be viewed as an illegitimate nominee by everyone who's not an Establishment Republican.
• Even if he could somehow overcome the first bullet point, Kasich obviously has no idea how to run a campaign.

That and he basically has never been attacked before. Once Clinton's media-men finish up with him, he'll be toast.

Not everything Hardly anything Trump says is true:

FactCheck.org: Trump Wrong About Ads Attacking Kasich
http://www.factcheck.org/2016/04/trump-wrong-about-ads-attacking-kasich/

[OSR stands with Israel]

Kasich 396
Hillary 142


What I think would happen

Kasich 322
Hillary 216

That second map looks more realistic. Even if you gave a couple of large states to Clinton (PA and WI) it would still be:

Kasich 292
Hillary 246

Well the first one is the best case scenario for Kasich the 2nd one is what I think the map would look like

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Kasich 338
Clinton 200

[youngohioan216]

Best Case Scenario

151-387


What I think would actually happen:

274-291

[Camaro33]

Bush 2004 + all midwest except Illinois + Pennsylvania + New Hampshire + possibly Maine district 2. That's it.

Anyone who thinks a Republican can win any other New England state like Connecticut is delusional. Come live here and see for yourself.

[dspNY]

^PA is not staying red if NH, NV and NM are voting Republican. What is this, 1988?

NH, NV, and NM are Freedom Republicans.

PA are Bible Republicans.

Kasich will do better with Freedom Republicans than Bible Republicans.

I would argue that if Kasich is the nominee and doing this well, Pennsylvania is in play.

Home region advantage.

Perhaps, but PA and OH are very different beasts.  PA was and is weird and difficult to predict.  It's very dependent on ground game, and Hillary Clinton will have significant advantages in that regard.

PA and OH are actually very similar. Historically Ohio votes about 3-5 points more Republican than Pennsylvania and this rarely deviates. Now with Kasich this will change because Ohio is his home state so he would do better at home

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

No GOPer will win Pa, the floor for Dems is Kerry 252 and it includes Pa.  Kasich would win NH, Iowa, CO, FL, OH and Va. Giving NV, NM and Pa to Clinton