Politico: Indiana Polling Shows Trump-Cruz tied or Trump ahead

[swf541]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/04/trump-cruz-indiana-primary-polls-222287

Apparently three different groups not affiliated with any of the pres campaign sent them something

Poll one has it tied 32-32 14 for Kasich taken April 12

Poll two has it tied and a week or two ago was Cruz leading outside MoE

Third poll has Trump ahead above margin of error

[Holmes]

Well, it'll be close. Two weeks to go, and Cruz won't have good headlines after coming 3rd in all or most primaries next Tuesday. Trump just needs to shut up.

[Ronnie]

If they're tied, then Cruz is probably in a good position, since the anti-Trump PACs haven't even begun blitzing him with ads.

[IceSpear]

Trump just needs to shut up.

In other words, this will be a steep uphill climb for Trump.

[ashridge]

If they're tied, then Cruz is probably in a good position, since the anti-Trump PACs haven't even begun blitzing him with ads.

If they're tied in private polling, that is good news for Cruz. Trump's final results usually come within a few points +/- of his polling avg. Cruz outperforms his polling average more often than not. Also, a 32/32/14 split between Trump/Cruz/Kasich leaves a lot of Undecideds. Late deciders usually break stronger for Cruz than Trump because, let's face it, there really just aren't that many people who are undecided on their opinion of Trump. If Trump's #'s are stuck in the low to mid-30's in Indiana, that's bad news for him and good news for Cruz.

Cruz's campaign will be going all in on Indiana, and Club for Growth announced at least a $1.5 Mil ad buy there as well.

[RR1997]

Trump will win this state. He's a good fit for this state. I don't know why everybody is predicting a Cruz victory.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

I wish we'd get some actual public numbers, since these private polls really don't give us much to go on. Hopefully we'll get some word of the Democratic race as well, which I expect to be close.

[DemPGH]

There were supposedly over 3,000 supporters at Trump's Indy fairgrounds rally. If Indiana is very close or Trump ahead, fuhgetaboutit.

Cruz is objectively awful. "The anti-Trumpeters" really should have gotten behind Kasich and I'm a little surprised they didn't (credentials, experience, Governor, level-headed, etc.).

[100% pro-life no matter what]

There were supposedly over 3,000 supporters at Trump's Indy fairgrounds rally. If Indiana is very close or Trump ahead, fuhgetaboutit.

Cruz is objectively awful. "The anti-Trumpeters" really should have gotten behind Kasich and I'm a little surprised they didn't (credentials, experience, Governor, level-headed, etc.).

Because Kasich is only marginally better than Trump for social conservatives.  We had no problem supporting Rubio, despite the "establishment" label that some tried to give him.  Values voters really only had two viable choices in the primaries (Cruz and Rubio) and one dropped out, so we have to go with the other one.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Trump will win this state. He's a good fit for this state. I don't know why everybody is predicting a Cruz victory.

Cruz is a better fit for the state,

[Vosem]

There were supposedly over 3,000 supporters at Trump's Indy fairgrounds rally. If Indiana is very close or Trump ahead, fuhgetaboutit.

Cruz is objectively awful. "The anti-Trumpeters" really should have gotten behind Kasich and I'm a little surprised they didn't (credentials, experience, Governor, level-headed, etc.).

Remember when Mitt Romney's crowd sizes were consistently bigger than Barack Obama's lol

Trump will win this state. He's a good fit for this state. I don't know why everybody is predicting a Cruz victory.

Look at Indiana's demographics. Look at counties in Illinois/Ohio/Michigan with similar demographics. Pretty consistently _trump in the low 30s. Consider the patterns of Kasich support and Cruz support in Michigan/Illinois/Wisconsin (outside of Ohio, in the Midwest). Consider that Rubio support has flowed overwhelmingly to Cruz everywhere outside the Northeast that has voted since 3/15.

Do the math.

[Ljube]

There were supposedly over 3,000 supporters at Trump's Indy fairgrounds rally. If Indiana is very close or Trump ahead, fuhgetaboutit.

Cruz is objectively awful. "The anti-Trumpeters" really should have gotten behind Kasich and I'm a little surprised they didn't (credentials, experience, Governor, level-headed, etc.).

Remember when Mitt Romney's crowd sizes were consistently bigger than Barack Obama's lol

Trump will win this state. He's a good fit for this state. I don't know why everybody is predicting a Cruz victory.

Look at Indiana's demographics. Look at counties in Illinois/Ohio/Michigan with similar demographics. Pretty consistently _trump in the low 30s. Consider the patterns of Kasich support and Cruz support in Michigan/Illinois/Wisconsin (outside of Ohio, in the Midwest). Consider that Rubio support has flowed overwhelmingly to Cruz everywhere outside the Northeast that has voted since 3/15.

Do the math.

I think you are overdoing the math.

[PresidentTRUMP]

I would give Cruz the slight edge in Indiana with all of the anti-trump money that will be spent there over the next couple weeks.

[Panda Express]

Indiana should be worth 0 delegates until they allow people to poll them.

[Torie]

Trump will win this state. He's a good fit for this state. I don't know why everybody is predicting a Cruz victory.

This analysis based on demographic modeling using past results, suggests that Indiana is a bit less favorable to Trump than the median across the Fruited Plain. What gives Cruz a boost, despite some factors working for Trump in Indiana (e.g., lower educational levels), is that the state is more conservative and Evangelical that some of the more liberal states in the Midwest. Thus there is less of a Kasich vote to siphon off from Cruz, and Cruz tends to be better with Evangelicals than average.

[standwrand]

Indiana should be worth 0 delegates until they allow people to poll them.

but

The fierce, barbarian tribe of Hoosiers do not tolerate being asked their opinions.

[Erc]

There were supposedly over 3,000 supporters at Trump's Indy fairgrounds rally. If Indiana is very close or Trump ahead, fuhgetaboutit.

Cruz is objectively awful. "The anti-Trumpeters" really should have gotten behind Kasich and I'm a little surprised they didn't (credentials, experience, Governor, level-headed, etc.).

Because Kasich is only marginally better than Trump for social conservatives.  We had no problem supporting Rubio, despite the "establishment" label that some tried to give him.  Values voters really only had two viable choices in the primaries (Cruz and Rubio) and one dropped out, so we have to go with the other one.

Why does everyone keep saying that?  He seems folksy and moderate, but his actions as OH governor have been very pro-life (to the point where folks I know who are pro-choice are scared of him).  Weaver's done him no favors here, I think...

(That, said, Kasich should not contest Indiana at all, period.)

[Gass3268]

Yeah, it really doesn't matter if Trump loses Indiana as long as it's close and he wins 6-9 delegates. It's going to be a big enough blood bath for #NeverTrump on Mid-Atlantic Tuesday and on Final Tuesday (CA & NJ) that Trump only needs to pick up reasonable # of delegates in states like IN, NM, OR, and WA in order to get to a majority.

[Mr. Reactionary]

Why does everyone keep saying that?  He seems folksy and moderate, but his actions as OH governor have been very pro-life (to the point where folks I know who are pro-choice are scared of him).

Yeah. One of the reasons I like Kasich is because he was a conservative up until like 3 years ago, because now the definition of moderate is accepting the Medicaid expansion or something.

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

Indiana will be the decider of this primary. Well Indiana and California will be.

[/]

Yeah, it really doesn't matter if Trump loses Indiana as long as it's close and he wins 6-9 delegates. It's going to be a big enough blood bath for #NeverTrump on Mid-Atlantic Tuesday and on Final Tuesday (CA & NJ) that Trump only needs to pick up reasonable # of delegates in states like IN, NM, OR, and WA in order to get to a majority.

This, more or less.

[SWE]

There were supposedly over 3,000 supporters at Trump's Indy fairgrounds rally. If Indiana is very close or Trump ahead, fuhgetaboutit.

Cruz is objectively awful. "The anti-Trumpeters" really should have gotten behind Kasich and I'm a little surprised they didn't (credentials, experience, Governor, level-headed, etc.).

Because Kasich is only marginally better than Trump for social conservatives.  We had no problem supporting Rubio, despite the "establishment" label that some tried to give him.  Values voters really only had two viable choices in the primaries (Cruz and Rubio) and one dropped out, so we have to go with the other one.

What problems would social conservatives have with Kasich?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

There were supposedly over 3,000 supporters at Trump's Indy fairgrounds rally. If Indiana is very close or Trump ahead, fuhgetaboutit.

Cruz is objectively awful. "The anti-Trumpeters" really should have gotten behind Kasich and I'm a little surprised they didn't (credentials, experience, Governor, level-headed, etc.).

Because Kasich is only marginally better than Trump for social conservatives.  We had no problem supporting Rubio, despite the "establishment" label that some tried to give him.  Values voters really only had two viable choices in the primaries (Cruz and Rubio) and one dropped out, so we have to go with the other one.

What problems would social conservatives have with Kasich?

He said near the beginning of his campaign that we care about ending abortion too much

[DemPGH]

In addition to being socially conservative, Kasich is staunchly anti-union, especially as concerns teachers and higher education, and would hardly buck the establishment on trade and immigration as Trump rightly has. Kasich would support the status quo. Why they don't want him perplexes me. Rubio and Cruz don't bring the experience, credentials, and so forth, especially Rubio. Why they wanted him really perplexes me. He appeared to not even like his job. And he was wide open to attack on all sorts of fronts. IDK, the GOP made its bed on this one in every way, now time to lie in it.

[Dr. Arch]

If Trump roughly splits half of Indiana's delegates, he already won the nomination essentially.