Who will win the Republican Indiana Primary?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

CRRRRUUUUUUUUUZZZZZ

[Human]

Either Trump or Cruz

My state sucks.

[Boston Bread]

Either Trump or Cruz

My state The GOP sucks.

Here's the real cause. Indiana isn't at all special in this regard.

[Human]

Tbh I want Kasich to win, but no one even knows who he is over here.  Everyone I've talked to knows about Trump, Hillary, Sanders, Rubio, Cruz, but not Kasich. Whenever I mention Kasich, people respond with "who's that?" Kasich is virtually unknown here. I blame the media for not covering him enough.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Something happened in the way Cruz lost NY.  He lost his swagger, his sense of being able to make things happen.  His unlikability was on display, but his competence and focus seemed to waver.  His poor performance appears to have convinced at least some of the establishment that THEIR only path forward is to make whatever accommodation with Trump they can make.

Indiana is an organization-GOP state.  I sense that Indiana's GOP will quietly dump Cruz, and will do what is needed for Trump to win the state.  They want this nightmare over, and the only way for that to happen is for Trump to win on the first ballot.  Trump's YUGE NY victory gave pause, I believe, to many advocates of a brokered convention.  If it would have been ugly before, how ugly will it be if they stop Trump AFTER he (A) has the most votes of all the candidates in the primaries and (B) finished the primary season strong?

[Santander]

Based on my experiences from living in Indiana, while it is a fertile state for Trump, Cruz should have plenty of support as well. Like Iowa, I think organization will deliver the state for Cruz. I can't see Kasich winning a county.

Either Trump or Cruz

My state sucks.

So you're saying every state but Minnesota and Ohio sucks.

[dax00]

Cruz will win... if Kasich is caught eating corn with a knife and fork.
Otherwise probably Trump.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Cruz will win. Trump may get a district or two but Cruz has it on lock.

[Vosem]

Indiana is an organization-GOP state.  I sense that Indiana's GOP will quietly dump Cruz, and will do what is needed for Trump to win the state.  They want this nightmare over, and the only way for that to happen is for Trump to win on the first ballot.  Trump's YUGE NY victory gave pause, I believe, to many advocates of a brokered convention.  If it would have been ugly before, how ugly will it be if they stop Trump AFTER he (A) has the most votes of all the candidates in the primaries and (B) finished the primary season strong?

Indiana is an organization-GOP state, like Iowa, where the organization has mainly been built by social conservatives who've been supporting Cruz from the very beginning. I'm likelier to start supporting _trump than they are. Do you remember what the organization-GOP in Indiana did after the outcry about anti-gay discrimination from business owners? They doubled down. That's what the organization-GOP does in states like Indiana. They double down.

You also forget that the real end is in 1.5 months in California, by which time _trump's YUGE NY win (that barely shifted PV totals because fewer votes were cast there than in Wisconsin) will be completely forgotten.

Cruz has the Cinci suburbs, the Indy suburbs, and the Fort Wayne area on lock. _trump should do well along most of the Ohio River (like he did in Ohio) and in the Gary area and Chicago exurbs. It's very tough to see a _trump victory unless Kasich manages to get well into the 20s. Geographically, Indiana is good for Kasich, but ideologically Wisconsin was a better fit for him.

Anyway, in conclusion, Cruz is pretty strongly favored, and though I doubt his victory will be particularly large in the popular vote, state geography favors him and he should win all but 3 CDs.

[Ljube]

Indiana is Trump Territory.

[ashridge]

Something happened in the way Cruz lost NY.  He lost his swagger, his sense of being able to make things happen.  His unlikability was on display, but his competence and focus seemed to waver.  His poor performance appears to have convinced at least some of the establishment that THEIR only path forward is to make whatever accommodation with Trump they can make.

Indiana is an organization-GOP state.  I sense that Indiana's GOP will quietly dump Cruz, and will do what is needed for Trump to win the state.  They want this nightmare over, and the only way for that to happen is for Trump to win on the first ballot.  Trump's YUGE NY victory gave pause, I believe, to many advocates of a brokered convention.  If it would have been ugly before, how ugly will it be if they stop Trump AFTER he (A) has the most votes of all the candidates in the primaries and (B) finished the primary season strong?

Trump is likely to lose at least 6 of the last 10 states to vote. How would that be finishing the primary season strong?

[ashridge]

Indiana is an organization-GOP state.  I sense that Indiana's GOP will quietly dump Cruz, and will do what is needed for Trump to win the state.  They want this nightmare over, and the only way for that to happen is for Trump to win on the first ballot.  Trump's YUGE NY victory gave pause, I believe, to many advocates of a brokered convention.  If it would have been ugly before, how ugly will it be if they stop Trump AFTER he (A) has the most votes of all the candidates in the primaries and (B) finished the primary season strong?

Indiana is an organization-GOP state, like Iowa, where the organization has mainly been built by social conservatives who've been supporting Cruz from the very beginning. I'm likelier to start supporting _trump than they are. Do you remember what the organization-GOP in Indiana did after the outcry about anti-gay discrimination from business owners? They doubled down. That's what the organization-GOP does in states like Indiana. They double down.

You also forget that the real end is in 1.5 months in California, by which time _trump's YUGE NY win (that barely shifted PV totals because fewer votes were cast there than in Wisconsin) will be completely forgotten.

Cruz has the Cinci suburbs, the Indy suburbs, and the Fort Wayne area on lock. _trump should do well along most of the Ohio River (like he did in Ohio) and in the Gary area and Chicago exurbs. It's very tough to see a _trump victory unless Kasich manages to get well into the 20s. Geographically, Indiana is good for Kasich, but ideologically Wisconsin was a better fit for him.

Anyway, in conclusion, Cruz is pretty strongly favored, and though I doubt his victory will be particularly large in the popular vote, state geography favors him and he should win all but 3 CDs.

Which CD's do you think Trump will win? CD 1? And which 2 southern IN CD's?

[Fuzzy Bear]

Indiana is an organization-GOP state.  I sense that Indiana's GOP will quietly dump Cruz, and will do what is needed for Trump to win the state.  They want this nightmare over, and the only way for that to happen is for Trump to win on the first ballot.  Trump's YUGE NY victory gave pause, I believe, to many advocates of a brokered convention.  If it would have been ugly before, how ugly will it be if they stop Trump AFTER he (A) has the most votes of all the candidates in the primaries and (B) finished the primary season strong?

Indiana is an organization-GOP state, like Iowa, where the organization has mainly been built by social conservatives who've been supporting Cruz from the very beginning. I'm likelier to start supporting _trump than they are. Do you remember what the organization-GOP in Indiana did after the outcry about anti-gay discrimination from business owners? They doubled down. That's what the organization-GOP does in states like Indiana. They double down.

You also forget that the real end is in 1.5 months in California, by which time _trump's YUGE NY win (that barely shifted PV totals because fewer votes were cast there than in Wisconsin) will be completely forgotten.

Cruz has the Cinci suburbs, the Indy suburbs, and the Fort Wayne area on lock. _trump should do well along most of the Ohio River (like he did in Ohio) and in the Gary area and Chicago exurbs. It's very tough to see a _trump victory unless Kasich manages to get well into the 20s. Geographically, Indiana is good for Kasich, but ideologically Wisconsin was a better fit for him.

Anyway, in conclusion, Cruz is pretty strongly favored, and though I doubt his victory will be particularly large in the popular vote, state geography favors him and he should win all but 3 CDs.

I would have agreed with this analysis if Trump had not won NY so convincingly, and if Cruz had put forth a better showing.  Trump, however, has some of the aura of inevitability he didn't have before.  It would have been ugly to try to stop him before; now, he can't be stopped without the GOP appearing to be flat-out undemocratic.

This is new territory for the GOP Establishment, Indiana's GOP Establishment included.  They have always been quite conservative; there are no Voinoviches or Kirks in Indiana's GOP of note.  But they are also pragmatic, and Indiana Republicans have often suffered massive losses in years where the trends heavily favor Democrats.  Indiana is far more elastic than, say, South Carolina or Georgia.  It won't be a full-bore caving to Trump, but I believe that the GOP now wants this thing over, and Indiana's GOP Establishment will be compliant in making that happen, albeit in a sub silentio way.

[ashridge]

Indiana is an organization-GOP state.  I sense that Indiana's GOP will quietly dump Cruz, and will do what is needed for Trump to win the state.  They want this nightmare over, and the only way for that to happen is for Trump to win on the first ballot.  Trump's YUGE NY victory gave pause, I believe, to many advocates of a brokered convention.  If it would have been ugly before, how ugly will it be if they stop Trump AFTER he (A) has the most votes of all the candidates in the primaries and (B) finished the primary season strong?

Indiana is an organization-GOP state, like Iowa, where the organization has mainly been built by social conservatives who've been supporting Cruz from the very beginning. I'm likelier to start supporting _trump than they are. Do you remember what the organization-GOP in Indiana did after the outcry about anti-gay discrimination from business owners? They doubled down. That's what the organization-GOP does in states like Indiana. They double down.

You also forget that the real end is in 1.5 months in California, by which time _trump's YUGE NY win (that barely shifted PV totals because fewer votes were cast there than in Wisconsin) will be completely forgotten.

Cruz has the Cinci suburbs, the Indy suburbs, and the Fort Wayne area on lock. _trump should do well along most of the Ohio River (like he did in Ohio) and in the Gary area and Chicago exurbs. It's very tough to see a _trump victory unless Kasich manages to get well into the 20s. Geographically, Indiana is good for Kasich, but ideologically Wisconsin was a better fit for him.

Anyway, in conclusion, Cruz is pretty strongly favored, and though I doubt his victory will be particularly large in the popular vote, state geography favors him and he should win all but 3 CDs.

I would have agreed with this analysis if Trump had not won NY so convincingly, and if Cruz had put forth a better showing.  Trump, however, has some of the aura of inevitability he didn't have before.  It would have been ugly to try to stop him before; now, he can't be stopped without the GOP appearing to be flat-out undemocratic.

This is new territory for the GOP Establishment, Indiana's GOP Establishment included.  They have always been quite conservative; there are no Voinoviches or Kirks in Indiana's GOP of note.  But they are also pragmatic, and Indiana Republicans have often suffered massive losses in years where the trends heavily favor Democrats.  Indiana is far more elastic than, say, South Carolina or Georgia.  It won't be a full-bore caving to Trump, but I believe that the GOP now wants this thing over, and Indiana's GOP Establishment will be compliant in making that happen, albeit in a sub silentio way.

Trump won his home state of New York convincingly, which he was always expected to do and which was baked into the cake. And now he's inevitable? No. Indiana doesn't give a flyin' flip what New York does, just like New York didn't give a flyin' flip what Wisconsin did. Cruz won more votes in Wisconsin than Trump did in New York, btw. Things are going to look quite a bit different on June 8 than they do now, after Cruz has won more states than Trump down the homestretch.

[Reaganfan]

Trump, but very close.

[Protect Trans Hoosiers]

Cruz has the Cinci suburbs, the Indy suburbs, and the Fort Wayne area on lock.

Fort Wayne?  The epicenter of the American Rust Belt?

[Sir Mohamed]

✓Cruz: 44%
Trump: 36%
Kasich: 19%

[UWS]

I think that Kasich won't even be competing in Indiana because I think he will drop out of the race if he loses all the states that hold a primary on April 26 (CT, RI, DE, MD and PA).

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The NeverTrump groups are going to go all in on Indiana, and my guess is that it's just barely enough for Cruz to win the state.

[President Johnson]

DONALD JOHN TRUMP.

He will win, but by less than ten points. Probably by five or six.

[Holmes]

I now believe Trump will win and have voted for him in this poll.

[Kingpoleon]

Cruz? Sorry, but looking at the county result maps of Ohio, Illinois, Michigan and Kentucky, Trump ought to win according to the rules of logic.

Yeah, but the big unknown is Indianapolis + suburbs.

You mean Dick Lugar/Greg Ballard/Susan Brooks' strongholds? Gee, I wonder who would win that.