Do Newspaper Endorsements Matter? And How Much?

[PeteB]

In this age of social media, newspaper endorsements seem to matter less and less. A good case in point is Kasich, who has received most of the Newspaper endorsements but has yet to convert that to serious votes. 

However, I will argue that the newspaper endorsements do matter and will use the NY Primary as an unscientific but very telling example.

1. Upstate cities (Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse and Albany)
These four cities of between 700,000 and 1.2 M generally have similar concerns and issues and while all of them are somewhat different, I looked at the newspaper endorsements for them.   If it matters, Albany and Rochester are more white collar and Buffalo and Syracuse are predominantly Blue collar.  Rochester, with its better educated workforce, should have done better for Kasich while Syracuse, which just lost the Carrier plant to Mexico, should have been in the bag for Trump.  And yet the results were almost reversed - because of Newspaper Endorsements? 

Syracuse Post Standard and Albany Times Union endorsed Kasich while the Buffalo News and Rochester Democrat Chronicle did not endorse any GOP candidate.  The end result is quite a dramatic difference between Trump and Kasich numbers in each:

Albany County (Albany - endorsing Kasich): Trump 48.1% Kasich 35.3% (Trump +12.8%)
Monroe County (Rochester - No endorsement): Trump 51.6% Kasich 31% (Trump +20.6%)
Onondaga County (Syracuse - endorsing Kasich): Trump 45.6% Kasich 36.4% (Trump +9.2%)
Erie County (Buffalo - No endorsement): Trump 65.7% Kasich 21.4% (Trump +44.3%)

Granted, all these upstate cities are unique, but they also share many similarities.  It is not a far stretch to claim that the endorsements helped the endorsee (Kasich), not to mention that they probably ensured that the non-endorsee (Trump) goes below 50% and loses a delegate.

2. Adjoining areas
While one can argue that these four cities have other issues affecting them, which would affect voting patterns, the rural counties around them tend to be very similar in upstate NY.  And yet, the rural counties around each had a very similar voting pattern to the adjoining city (I used one county as an example for each to make this simpler):

Saratoga County (Albany - endorsing Kasich): Trump 47.9% Kasich 34.1% (Trump +13.8%)
Ontario County (Rochester - No endorsement): Trump 51.2% Kasich 30.2% (Trump +21%)
Cortland County (Syracuse - endorsing Kasich): Trump 44.4% Kasich 32.8% (Trump +11.6%)
Cattaraugus County (Buffalo - No endorsement): Trump 57.7% Kasich 22.3% (Trump +35.4%)

Conclusion (based on admittedly unscientific evidence)
Newspaper endorsements do matter, but cannot change the overall winner, except in a very close race.  Based on these numbers, it would indicate that they can bring a swing of 5-10% in voter behavior, from one candidate to another.

[Classic Conservative]

Newspaper Endorsements haven't mattered in over 50 years.

[SillyAmerican]

Newspaper Endorsements haven't mattered in over 50 years.

Yes. And in fact newspapers themselves haven't mattered in many years, as shown by the continued decline of subscription numbers.

[PeteB]

Newspaper Endorsements haven't mattered in over 50 years.

Yes. And in fact newspapers themselves haven't mattered in many years, as shown by the continued decline of subscription numbers.

In many ways I agree with both of you. Which is why I was surprised to see that the Endorsements still seem to matter. Granted the example of upstate NY may or may not be representative of the country. And there may well be other local factors at play.

But there is no easy explanation on why seemingly similar upstate cities had such different voting patterns. Other than local newspaper endorsements!

[Maxwell]

They don't matter, but Newspapers can signal where a race is going - as evidence by The Boston Globe endorsing Charlie Baker in 2014, and Cory Gardner being endorsed by some marginally Democrat Colorado paper in the same year.

[Drew]

Newspaper endorsements are bunk.  A lot of them lean too much to one side when they make their endorsements.  For example, the Chicago Tribune had endorsed GOP POTUS candidates for over 100 years until Obama came along.  They also consistently endorse GOP gubernatorial candidates.  One party every cycle for over 100 years?

[henster]

They matter in local races like school board, state Rep etc. but rarely in federal races or Gov races.

[PeteB]

Does anyone have a plausible explanation for the election results outlined in the original post, that does not involve newspaper endorsements?

[CatoMinor]

They only matter as much as they indicate how the few people who made the decision will vote